Article

2006-11-27 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Russian Tor-M1 air defence Rocket Deliveries To Iran Started

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Posted by 3dc 2006-11-27 18:23|| || Front Page|| [11 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 StrategyPage had this to say:

November 27, 2006: The sale of Russian Tor-M1 missile system to Iran have generated a fair bit of hype, but a closer look reveals that the sale is not as big a deal as some try to make it out to be. While the Russians are selling 29 missile systems, it is not nearly enough to reliably defend all of the key sites in Iran's nuclear program.

The Iranian nuclear program is scattered throughout the country some around Tehran, some around Bushehr, some in other locations. In other words, these launchers will not be bunched up, they will be scattered across Iran. Can the Tor-M1 cover all of it? Not quite. The reasons are easily discovered when one looks closely at the system involved.

The Tor-M1 known to NATO as the SA-15 Gauntlet, has a maximum range of 12 kilometers. It is only effective up to 6000 meters altitude. The system was designed as a successor to the SA-N-8 Gecko. Each launcher carries eight missiles, and it is claimed to be capable of engaging two targets simultaneously. The system was designed to be a tactical battlefield air-defense system, designed to take out close-air-support planes like the A-10 or tactical fighter-bombers like the F-4, F-16, and F-18.

Against a Tomahawk cruise missile, which goes as fast as 880 kilometers per hour, and comes in at very low altitudes, the Tor-M1 is a very marginal system. A single Tor would have 49 seconds at most to engage a Tomahawk if it detects the missile at its maximum range. That is a pretty big if, as radar performance declines against low-altitude targets. This assumes the missile will hit. If the missile misses (not an unthinkable occurrence in some circumstances), then more have to be fired.

If Tomahawks are not an option, then attacking from above the Tor's reach is. Most American combat planes can easily fly at altitudes above 6000 meters. These aircraft would have the option of either attacking the Tor systems themselves (and clearing the road for Tomahawks or combat aircraft to attack the main target), or going for the main target itself.

Tor could also be neutralized by sending in UAVs or target drones on a flight profile similar to that flown by combat aircraft or Tomahawk cruise missiles. This was the technique used in the 1991 Gulf War against the Iraqi air defense system. The Iraqis fired at the drones, revealing the location of the missile batteries and drawing very prompt attention from American Wild Weasels. The Iraqi system was neutralized very quickly.

When it comes right down to it, the Iranians have spent some of their petrodollars to get a missile system that looks good on paper, and which generate media attention, but ultimately is a false sense of security. The Russians have managed to make some money, get an export customer, yet these systems will not be able to deflect a determined attack against the nuclear weapons program

Posted by 3dc 2006-11-27 18:47|| 2006-11-27 18:47|| Front Page Top

#2 So maybe Putie is the winner. He sells them ground-to-air systems to defend the reactors he previously sold them. No wonder Russkies always take their part in UN. Big bucks being transferred to Russian treasury.

Posted by SpecOp35 2006-11-27 19:00|| 2006-11-27 19:00|| Front Page Top

#3 Why do the Russians get all the fun? Why don't we deliver some missiles to Iran, too?

Posted by Jackal">Jackal 2006-11-27 19:02|| http://home.earthlink.net/~sleepyjackal/index.html]">[http://home.earthlink.net/~sleepyjackal/index.html] 2006-11-27 19:02|| Front Page Top

#4 Mmmmm. Russia. Our ally in the War on Jihad.

And China too!

*spit*

Posted by Mark Z 2006-11-27 19:15|| 2006-11-27 19:15|| Front Page Top

#5 I wonder if they'll work as well as those vaunted GPS jammers Saddam bought?

Posted by Dar">Dar 2006-11-27 19:41|| 2006-11-27 19:41|| Front Page Top

#6 I wonder if they'll work as well as those vaunted GPS jammers Saddam bought?

Heh(tm). The more I read 'bout this deal, the more amused I am. For all their bluster, the mullahs are mortaly terrified. At this point, they are grasping at any magic charm that promises to keep the evil amriki djinns from dragging them off into the night. Thats what the nukes are for. The missiles are just to protect the nukes.

Like the nukes themselves, these missles are not going to actualy accomplish the Iranins' intended purpose-- regime preservation.

What I see is a bunch of cargo-cult type actions by terrified savages (the mullahs), and some impressively unscrupulous exploitation of fundamental ignorance by a european merchant (Tsar Putin).

My only real worry is that the Mullahs might accidentaly cobble up a working nuke--and try to use it on someone. Mainly I worry about the relatively innocent bystanders that will get irradiated/killed.

At this point in the game, I almost wish the mullahs would pop a small (0.5-2kT) nuke over D.C., if only to see how certain talking heads handle a dose of reality. Almost. But not quite yet.

Posted by N guard 2006-11-27 21:04|| 2006-11-27 21:04|| Front Page Top

#7 As Russian officios claimed in the late 1990's, any and all future Russian air-defense systems will possess both conventional- and NUCLEAR QUALITIES/CAPABILITIES. Pro-Chicom bloggers claim that China has reduced its acquisition of Russian-manufac systems becuz China's MIC now possesses enuff industrial know-how to begin producing her own indigenous copies/variants. LIKELY PRESUME SAME FOR RADICAL IRAN - reduced purchases, however, doesn't mean Russia-China won't stop selling or transferring.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2006-11-27 22:24|| 2006-11-27 22:24|| Front Page Top

#8 Cuban missle crisis all over again.

Posted by wxjames 2006-11-27 22:43|| 2006-11-27 22:43|| Front Page Top

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