Article

2006-07-10 Iraq

StrategyPage Iraq: The Next Crucial Battle of the War

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by ed 2006-07-10 06:36|| || Front Page|| [2 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 It's not like the Sunni Arab leadership can just push a button, and make their bad guys go away. In Arab culture, the process moves a lot more slowly, and involves lots of talking, coffee, promises, deceit and drama.

Important to remember this in the coming months.

Posted by Mike 2006-07-10 07:01|| 2006-07-10 07:01|| Front Page Top

#2 'What a pile of steaming horseshit'.

Posted by wxjames 2006-07-10 08:24|| 2006-07-10 08:24|| Front Page Top

#3 Actually, moving against the militias is profoundly good news. The militias generally don't threaten to destroy the government, they are not at war with Iraq, unlike the insurgents. They are vigilantes.

This means that the insurgents have been so pounded down, that the majority of the focus can now move to other problems.

The best part is that vigilante movements are weak. The easiest way to break them up is not direct conflict, but restoring law & order. This makes them just fall apart.

Those groups supported by Iran can be spy-busted, then undermined with nationalism. But all of it is one hell of a lot easier than fighting fanatical insurgents.

Posted by Anonymoose 2006-07-10 08:53|| 2006-07-10 08:53|| Front Page Top

#4 Getting Iraqi government forces to go after fellow Iraqis has been a huge problem to date, and the reason for the slow stand-up of their forces by US trainers. This will be huge when everyone fully sees the logic of doing this kind of thing and go at it with all their hearts. It seems as though this may be in the process of becoming "acceptable and desired behavior" at this point! :-)

Posted by grb 2006-07-10 14:10|| 2006-07-10 14:10|| Front Page Top

#5 Actually, supporters of the Shia militias ARE the government, ARE the Ministers, ARE the ruling party coalition -- and the Shia militias ARE the Iraqi armed forces, ARE the police, ARE the power all over the south and much of the central area of "Iraq", a Theatrical European Creation.

There was a teensy little story today that demonstrates these are facts. Note, also, that half the comments on that story are, at the very least, confused about who is who. That's sad, since it's not a very complicated cascade of allegiances, alliances, and enmities.

Further, and I believe this should be obvious, you won't see the Shia militias neutralized until the Shia political coalition leaders decide you will + the time it takes to get the armed militias to agree to give up their God powers. That might be one hell of a lag-time, too.

And not one second before.

Posted by Wheang Spavirong9833 2006-07-10 15:23|| 2006-07-10 15:23|| Front Page Top

00:00 bigjim-ky
23:59 Wheang Spavirong9833
23:52 SR-71
23:49 RD
23:48 Frank G
23:41 Mike
23:38 Wheang Spavirong9833
23:28 bombay
23:27 twobyfour
23:23 Wheang Spavirong9833
23:18 muck4doo
23:17 DanNY
23:12 bigjim-ky
23:11 Old Patriot
23:04 Monsieur Moonbat
23:03 Zhang Fei
23:03 Wheang Spavirong9833
22:51 Frank G
22:42 Oldspook
22:38 xbalanke
22:38 Wheang Spavirong9833
22:36 Frank G
22:33 Oldspook
22:19 Wheang Spavirong9833