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2006-03-24 Science & Technology
Avian Flu: New Information, Scariest Yet
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Posted by Anonymoose 2006-03-24 18:26|| || Front Page|| [1 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 Yawn.
Posted by Iblis">Iblis  2006-03-24 20:09||   2006-03-24 20:09|| Front Page Top

#2 Color me blase. When this disease shows signs of being infectious, I'll start to get worried. Remember Ebola and the mad cow disease? Both are fatal. But neither showed signs of being very infectious. Ebola got its start in Africa, where hygiene is indifferent and presents an ideal environment for spreading disease. Same with bird flu and SARS. If they can't spread in China, India, Pakistan and Indonesia (where the natives use their left hands in place of toilet paper), all of which are hygienically-challenged, you're not going to see any serious problems in the West.
Posted by Zhang Fei 2006-03-24 20:23|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2006-03-24 20:23|| Front Page Top

#3 Zhang Fei,

You have some good points, but, we just can't predict what happens when human to human.

The only thing on the good news front is the timeline. 24-48 hour kill rate is too fast for massive, massive destruction ... well, given today's populations. 1918, or before and global, problem of a different scope.

The problem is, and we can't stop it no matter what, the bugs will adapt. We adjust our health care and technology to a certain level, and they will out do us. It is pure math.

We divide once or twice every 50 years or so. They do it every 30 minutes or so.

We offset by technology, but there is the law of delimiting returns. It is an iteresting race. At some point we have to come up short, and massive corrections in population are the result.
Posted by bombay">bombay  2006-03-24 21:04||   2006-03-24 21:04|| Front Page Top

#4 Diminishing returns, although a delimiter :)
Posted by bombay">bombay  2006-03-24 21:06||   2006-03-24 21:06|| Front Page Top

#5 Zhang Fei..

Ebola got its start in Africa, where hygiene is indifferent

/hhuummm this mean i'll have to bathe more..
Posted by RD 2006-03-24 21:19||   2006-03-24 21:19|| Front Page Top

#6 The only thing on the good news front is the timeline. 24-48 hour kill rate is too fast for massive, massive destruction.

Its well documented that in 1918 many people were killed in 24 hours or less, yet the flu spread just fine.

In fact, I would argue exactly the opposite. A person becomes highly infectious very quickly which makes containment a lot more difficult. Hence spread is much more rapid than 'normal' flu.
Posted by phil_b">phil_b  2006-03-24 21:30|| http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]">[http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]  2006-03-24 21:30|| Front Page Top

#7 I'd be interested in knowing how many human deaths there have been in Western countries.

Among people who are not from 3rd-world countries with 3rd-world ideas about sanitation.

Though I understand it's nothing to sneeze at, I suspect this flu (presuming it jumps to human-to-human transmission) is going to be less of a problem in Western cultures where there is at least a modicum of sanitation.

(I'd be concerned about nursing homes, though.)
Posted by  Barbara Skolaut"> Barbara Skolaut  2006-03-24 21:40|| http://ariellestjohndesigns.com/page/15bk1/Home_Page.html]">[http://ariellestjohndesigns.com/page/15bk1/Home_Page.html]  2006-03-24 21:40|| Front Page Top

#8 The big jump from bird to human B2H to H2H may not be as difficult as all that. Right now, it is believed that H2H hasn't erupted en masse solely because the virus only takes hold in cells deep in the alveoli of the lungs, unlike typical flu that enters in the cells of the sinuses, eyes and throat.

So, how different are the cells in the lungs from those higher up?

As far as mutation goes, it is much like a computational problem. Individual animals that do not immediately die from the disease, like swine, may have several mutations of the same disease in their bodies, in a darwinian race to establish supremacy and efficiency. In a herd, each animal is doing the same, but with different mutations.

The "winners" of the individual animal viruses are exchanged around the herd, in a "semi-finals", until the best mutation is the sole survivor.

Herd after herd and flock after flock produce increasingly efficient mutations, even though many good possibles are eliminated through death. But when you add up all of those individual and group efforts, an awful lot of possibilities are generated.

Now, consider human interaction at many stages of this process. Swine, in particular can catch both human and avian influenza, and within their bodies the two different types of viruses can and do exchange RNA.

This means that humans are not needed to produce a virus that will transmit easily H2H.

Remember that *most* typical flus are uptaken in the upper respiratory system. It is a common mutation that allows them to do this, so there is a very good chance that a common influenza will give that mutated gene to H5N1.

In addition to its virulence, H5N1 is also believed to have an optimal incubation period, anywhere from 10-17 days, with an extended period of communicability. This bastard seems to be tailor made to kill humans.
Posted by Anonymoose 2006-03-24 21:43||   2006-03-24 21:43|| Front Page Top

#9 CoasttoCoastAM had a recent episode where Noory's guest commented that what is being [wilfully] under-reported or nono-reported in the Medias is how stocks in poor countries are born, raised, eat, and processed in hyper-polluted, unsanitary industrial conditions, and that left alone, these viruses can easily mutate over time to threaten mankind. IOW, the world doesn't need exploding Commie Biowar factories or research complexes - all thats needed is for enviro wastelands/dumps to stay polluted AND HUMAN-OCCUPIED for periods of time.
Posted by JosephMendiola 2006-03-24 22:07||   2006-03-24 22:07|| Front Page Top

23:57 Zhang Fei
23:52 Zhang Fei
23:49 Grealing Grineper7055
23:17 Frank G
23:16 Frank G
23:14 wxjames
23:13 Frank G
23:10 JosephMendiola
22:57 RWV
22:55 Ptah
22:55 Captain America
22:53 JAB
22:52 Eric Jablow
22:51 JosephMendiola
22:50 Captain America
22:41 JosephMendiola
22:18 Inspector Clueso
22:14 JosephMendiola
22:14  Barbara Skolaut
22:14 xbalanke
22:13 DMFD
22:07 JosephMendiola
22:00 Ptah
21:49 Inspector Clueso









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