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2005-04-05 Iraq-Jordan

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Posted by Steve 2005-04-05 9:01:39 AM|| || Front Page|| [10 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 a nice strategy for the Sunni arabs, but I fear Saddam has ruined it, the way the 9/11 terrorists ruined it for your average joe "take this plane to Cuba" hijacker. Shiites who might sat back and were fatalistic during Sunni coups in the '50s and '60s are always going to worry that a Sunni coup results in another Saddamite horror. They'll resist as they didnt in the past - might result in a true civil war, worse than the current mess, but probably not an elegant coup d'etat.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2005-04-05 10:01:05 AM|| 2005-04-05 10:01:05 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 This hits some interesting points - maybe pretty close to the mark - both as analysis of a few of the dangers and of the players and the likely Sunni menu of strategies. It's a little spotty, but not bad for StratFor. But the Shi'a and Kurds have strategies, as well. I'd wager the Sunni military people won't be taking over the military unless everyone else falls asleep for a decade, ala Rip Al Winkle. Certainly, since we're talking about arms, matÃ©riel, and training, the Kurds and Shi'a recognize the dangers and will have much to say about who gets in and who gets authority.

The Tribes. That's where the real rub will come from, regards Iraq turning the corner on yesterday and adopting a successful democratic system, as almost everyone blindly defers to their tribal leaders. Indoctrinated even beyond their favored flavor of Islam. The sellouts and loyalty auctions that occur sound vaguely familiar - Braveheart, perhaps? Lol... Corruption and shifting loyalties are not unique in Arabia. But, indeed, the tribal system is the keeper of tradition, the enforcer of customs.

In the end, that's what it's about: customs, and Twain said it best:

"There isn't anything you can't stand, if only you are born and bred to it."

"Customs do not concern themselves with right or wrong or reason."

"Laws are sand, customs are rock. Laws can be evaded and punishment escaped, but an openly transgressed custom brings sure punishment."

"A crime persevered in a thousand centuries ceases to be a crime, and becomes a virtue. This is the law of custom, and custom supersedes all other forms of law."

After mulling it over for quite a spell...

That's a steep hill - and the longer we are there, the better, for we are the fly in the ointment, the sand in the well-oiled gears of their traditions, the logic that can't be completely ignored when we succeed acting in spite of, and in contradiction to, their customs - and show ourselves to be little different, otherwise, from them.

Where we stop being ourselves and cater to their dysfunctional societal customs, that soft-power approach so beloved of State and the Tranzis and people who wouldn't know an Arab from a organ grinder's monkey, we significantly diminish our greatest gift to them: a highly successful example of an alternative to their customs. Recall what you've read from the better-educated Iraqi bloggers and it rings true.

Time in-country and constant interaction will be the key. It won't magically happen overnight, but the children who are interacting with our military will see the differences and, in their turn, challenge and change the old ways. We just have to be there long enough for it to rub off on them as something more than a passing oddity.

I believe our military has demonstrated both here in Iraq and in Afghanistan just how powerful and influential their example can be - and it stands in stark contrast to the State, UN, and NGO looters and fools who don't have a clue what they're doing. The military will have the greatest peacetime impact - and as our ambassadors, they are far superior to the "experts". They just rock.

My $0.02.

Posted by .com 2005-04-05 10:15:09 AM|| 2005-04-05 10:15:09 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Article: Now the more traditional Sunni Arab leadership sees a familiar path to power. A decade or so of peace and prosperity, followed by powerful Sunni Arab army and police commanders staging a coup.

The problem with the writer's thesis is that the Shiite-controlled government will mean a military dominated by Shiite recruits and officers. The writer is transposing American ideas of merit-based (ability-based) appointments on Iraq. Most non-Western governments around the world that are multi-ethnic or multi-religious do not appoint people into government positions based on ability. Thus, there is no danger of Sunnis being placed in positions where they can pose a danger to Shiite majority rule. This is why the Sunni remnants are fighting tooth-and-nail - because only token positions will ever be available to them.

Whether the Shiites recognize it or not, Uncle Sam is the ultimate guarantor of majority rule in Iraq. If they do recognize it and insist that Uncle Sam sticks around, there is *no* possible way a Sunni coup could succeed.

* Note that the solution in most non-Western countries to disgruntlement among ethnic or religious minorities has not been to appease, but to repress them. This repression usually succeeds, unless Uncle Sam intervenes, as it did in Yugoslavia, forcing the partition of that country. This is one reason Uncle Sam has attracted a lot of dislike around the world - every country has a digruntled minority, and the prospect of military intervention followed by territorial dismemberment by Uncle Sam in response to the country's repression of a rebellion is not particularly attractive.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2005-04-05 10:29:54 AM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-04-05 10:29:54 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 .com - this is Strategypage, not Stratfor. I'd be dancing in the street if Stratfor produced something as sane on the Shia question as this analysis, as little as I agree with it. Stratfor would be frothing about Iranian influence in Shia-dominated ministries, at the very least.

Posted by Mitch H. 2005-04-05 2:22:53 PM|| [http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/] 2005-04-05 2:22:53 PM|| Front Page Top

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