Article

2004-07-02 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-07-02 12:40:47 AM|| || Front Page|| [6 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Another war is not politically impossible. It's just impossible before November.

Posted by Damn_Proud_American 2004-07-02 12:51:26 AM|| [http://brighterfuture.blogspot.com] 2004-07-02 12:51:26 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 The Brits, as precarious as they are perched politically, would not be arguing this unless they already knew the answer to the question: Where were the Brits when they were siezed by the Iranians? A: well on the IRAQI side of the border. This was yet another incursion by the Iranians into Iraq. They keep this up, they may yet do what we have not: Unite the Iraqi people (against them).

The Revolutionary Guards and their whipholder Mullahs are spoiling for a fight - they need an external enemy soon, before the people turn completely against the Mullahs. Thats why they shanghai'd those Brit sailors.

And if you notice, the "Regular" Iranian Army and Navy had NOTHING to do with it. There are fissures developing that will soon rip Iran apart. The only question is how many of their own will the Mullahs kill before they themselves end up with their heads on pikes?

Give them Nukes and there will be a radioactive Gotterdammerung in the Middle East - the bastard fanatics will destroy their own nation and irradiate the ones around them rather than realize they were on the losing end of history.

Mark my words: if the Iranian people themselves do not revolt soon, the blood price paid will be incredible for them, and for the whole region.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-07-02 1:31:27 AM|| 2004-07-02 1:31:27 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 OldSpook: What's left of the regular army/navy/air force? Is that a potential source of revolt? Iran is a big country in a tough neighborhood. You'd think they'd have to have *some* professional troops and border guards.

Posted by Classical_Liberal 2004-07-02 2:22:45 AM|| 2004-07-02 2:22:45 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 The Brits have a score to settle here but in the UK it's off the news, I bet, with stupid shit!

Shep?

Posted by Lucky 2004-07-02 4:23:05 AM|| 2004-07-02 4:23:05 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 In terms of heavy troops, the Army still has most of em. The RG's are still a light infantry force, although much better funded and equipped than the regular army - but they do have a few tanks. Big thing the RG's have is political pull. I'd have to find open spources for the troop strengths before I speak to that.

And all the fanatacism in the world doesn't maintain jet aircraft. Fanatics do not make good A&P mechanics ("Its good enough for Allah" doenst cut it when doing engine inspections).

Posted by OldSpook 2004-07-02 10:09:32 AM|| 2004-07-02 10:09:32 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 The only question is how many of their own will the Mullahs kill before they themselves end up with their heads on pikes?

... Mark my words: if the Iranian people themselves do not revolt soon, the blood price paid will be incredible for them, and for the whole region.

Well said, OldSpook. As always, it's the little guys who will bear the brunt of any poor decisions being made at the top.

And all the fanatacism in the world doesn't maintain jet aircraft.

Sort of ironic to think about how Iran used to have one of the finest air forces in the entire Middle East. How many billions of dollars worth of American jet fighters do they have rusting gently in their hangars? I wonder if they even have a single pilot qualified to fly one of them. What a pleasant thumb in the eye for the mullahs whenever they review their sophisticated and utterly flightless air wing.

Aren't Iran's tanks the old Soviet style TUs that need to have their barrels exchanged after a few dozen rounds? This whole scene is redolent of people with slingshots taunting someone with a machine gun.

Posted by Zenster 2004-07-02 10:25:07 AM|| 2004-07-02 10:25:07 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 Give them Nukes and there will be a radioactive Gotterdammerung in the Middle East - the bastard fanatics will destroy their own nation and irradiate the ones around them rather than realize they were on the losing end of history.

good point and quite plausible - if in the event of civil unrest, regular army looks to be joining in against the mullahs, the mullahs might well launch a nuke on a key military base.

Has anyone fully wargamed the USSR coup attempt in 1991?? Did the coup plotters have access to nukes? (of course they were drunken amateurs compared to the mullahs, I think)

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-07-02 12:45:07 PM|| 2004-07-02 12:45:07 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 I would be very, very surprised if the Iranians didn't stall on the nav computer issue, turning it into yet another quibble in this whole thing. And if the Brits do get them back, they'd better check for sabotage and altered programming straightaway.

Posted by The Doctor 2004-07-02 4:18:21 PM|| 2004-07-02 4:18:21 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 coup plotters

LH!
President Bush called them "coupe people".
LOL.

Posted by Shipman 2004-07-02 4:38:39 PM|| 2004-07-02 4:38:39 PM|| Front Page Top

12:05 Sakina A. Walsh
18:01 Jen
17:43 Anonymous5603
20:30 Frank G
19:59 Rusotxo
17:42 Quetzalcoatl
12:41 Frank G
11:39 CrazyFool
01:19 Anonymous4617
00:55 Super Hose
00:52 .com
00:45 trailing wife
00:44 Old Spook
00:41 trailing wife
23:45 Verlaine
23:45 Verlaine
23:44 Verlaine
23:44 Verlaine
23:44 Verlaine
23:38 Verlaine
23:34 OldSpook
23:23 OldSpook
23:21 Barbara Skolaut
23:18 OldSpook