Article

2004-06-30 Arabia

Looks like a deal is in the Magic Kingdom

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Posted by Dan Darling 2004-06-30 9:51:35 AM|| || Front Page|| [9 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Between the lines, I think I get the message that if the Bad Boyz will return to just killing infidels outside the Magic Kingdom, a return to pre-May 12, 2003 conditions, then the Saudis will look the other way.

Dan? Care to put your between-the-lines thoughts out there?

Posted by .com 2004-06-30 10:14:02 AM|| 2004-06-30 10:14:02 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Sounds like the Saudis are pulling back when they should be attacking.

Posted by rabidfox 2004-06-30 10:26:17 AM|| 2004-06-30 10:26:17 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 That's more or less the way I read it, .com

My guess is that al-Muqrin and Co moved to fast, the rest of the leadership knows it, so they reached another agreement with the princes using the holy men as in-betweens and now there's an amnesty and everything's just peachy again. This also provides the Saudis' a nice way to publicly say the threat of terrorism was ended by the amnesty while going back to the good old days when the princes did, well, pretty much what they're doing now, just more covertly ...

Posted by Dan Darling 2004-06-30 11:12:55 AM|| [http://www.regnumcrucis.blogspot.com] 2004-06-30 11:12:55 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Thx, Dan. That's the most cogent description I've seen - thx!

So Nayef sacrificed a few pawns when his game began to infringe upon the turf of others. Being a Royal means never having to say you're sorry, heh.

There is nothing to compare to the Saudi PR machine. Just one month's outlay would make everyone at RB independently wealthy.

When this domestic political insanity finally passes the Nov election, not that the screeching will actually dissipate (I'm not anywhere near that optimistic) - just shift gears - then (if re-elected) Bush can ratchet up the pressure on the Saudis. Anyone actually believing that Skeery would do it is dreaming, IMO.

Sooner or later, the reckoning will come. Sooner works for me. Saudi's Byzantine internecine squabbles are expensive - in money, lives, security - for everyone but the Royals. As with the UN, it's time to kill off the Special Relationship, used against us since 1973.

Posted by .com 2004-06-30 11:36:23 AM|| 2004-06-30 11:36:23 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 To imagine what a Kerry administration would do, just remember the Clinton administration. The one thing that the Clinton years taught us was that although you could buy a Democrat, you couldn't be sure he wouldn't sell you out if he got a better offer. Kerry would do whatever the highest bidder wanted while denying it vehemently. Weasels don't change their ways.

Posted by RWV 2004-06-30 11:54:00 AM|| 2004-06-30 11:54:00 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 I actually think that Nayef and Saif al-Adel are running parallel to one another on this one. Both want the clown prince out and Nayef controls the security forces, while al-Adel controls the al-Qaeda org in the Magic Kingdom. There's a good deal of overlap between the two, since in many cases the security forces and the al-Qaeda cannon fodder are the exact same people.

Remember, al-Adel's original plan for Riyadh in May 2003 was for the assassination of some princes, including perhaps Abdullah. That part didn't work but the expat boomings happened and it was too overt for even the Saudis to just dump off on alk runners. That led to the faux "crackdown," which netted just enough baddies for the rank-and-file like al-Muqrin (who isn't even the real capo in the Kingdom and neither is al-Oufi, that honor belongs to Louis Attiyat Allah) to start booming places like the Lebanese Christian compound and more recently the attacks on Yanbu and al-Khobar. When that didn't produce the Revolution b/c Louis and Nayef still had their deal (hence the reason none of the moneymen or clerics have been jugged), al-Muqrin started kidnapping Westerners and really causing the shit to hit the fan for the princes. So he got whacked and now there's a new deal on thanks to the holy men, abeit an odd one given today's events.

Posted by Dan Darling 2004-06-30 12:13:04 PM|| [http://www.regnumcrucis.blogspot.com] 2004-06-30 12:13:04 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 I've posted that I figured Abdullah had better proceed with a coup or the conspiring Sudairis (Nayef + Turki + ?) will bring him down - and then hope to pick up the pieces successfully. IIRC Sultan, as Fahd's closest ally and personal choice to succeed him - in spite of making (allowing?) Abdullah the CP, doesn't seem actively complicit.

So a time estimate and winner prediction? Wanna venture that far out into the void? Lol!

I admit I thought the Royals would "fall" by now - I told expat friends I predict 18-24 months - about 18 months ago, so I'm obviously off the mark regards the resilience of the Royals in spite of this little family squabble.

Posted by .com 2004-06-30 12:35:06 PM|| 2004-06-30 12:35:06 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 Louis Attiyat Allah

any open source background on this guy?

So Muqrin was forward leaning too much?? So he used no outside resources I presume? While this makes more sense grand strategically (concentrate on Iraq) its hard for me to see from here how Muqrin controlled the Saudi AQ resources to do all the attacks if the real Mr. Big was someone else who had a different plan.

Quite confused - but then both AQ and KSA are byzantine, so im not ashamed:)

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-06-30 12:52:47 PM|| 2004-06-30 12:52:47 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 LH: Try putting "Louis Allah" in the Rantburg search engine.

Posted by 11A5S 2004-06-30 1:04:48 PM|| 2004-06-30 1:04:48 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 Talk, talk, blab, blab.
A deal is in... sheesh.
Didn't you dinks go to school?
It' the FIX, the FIX is in.
deal, shmeal.

Posted by Mayor D 2004-06-30 1:30:04 PM|| 2004-06-30 1:30:04 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 Nayef and Sultan are in cahoots, IIRC.

As far as Louis (sometimes spelled Lewis) goes, there's not much on the guy except that he's a Western-educated Saudi cleric, a member of the Supreme Council of Global Jihad, and does the real deep thinking while folks like al-Oufi and al-Muqrin handle the dirty work of killing infidels.

As far as al-Muqrin's relative status within al-Qaeda, he knew where all the cells were inside the Kingdom, was chummy with the rank and file security forces, ect. Positions aren't too fixed within al-Qaeda and he had a lot of clout within the network because he part of the hit squad that had nearly whacked Mubarak. All the same, bad as al-Muqrin was he didn't come even close to what al-Adel or Louis could call upon at a moment's notice.

To give you an idea, here's a look at what al-Adel was originally planning to take place along with the first Riyadh bombings.

I hope that puts things in perspective.

Posted by Dan Darling 2004-06-30 2:31:50 PM|| [http://www.regnumcrucis.blogspot.com] 2004-06-30 2:31:50 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 Far as I can tell, it's all old news. The only thing remotely different is that the Royals have been slightly more open about their opposition to al Qaeda, but that is all PR. Big money is still changing hands and going straight into al Qaeda's pockets. Amnesty offers demonstrate what sort of "resolve" we can expect from the Saudis. The Wahabbist clerics are still spewing their anti-American bile and it remains open season on all Westerners. What's any different?

Posted by Zenster 2004-06-30 4:01:11 PM|| 2004-06-30 4:01:11 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 rabidfox: Sounds like the Saudis are pulling back when they should be attacking.

The Saudis aren't fighting al Qaeda because they like us and hate the jihadis. In reality, they hate us and love the jihadis, except when the jihadis are threatening them. But fundamentally-speaking, we, not the jihadis, are perceived as the enemy. The current violence is basically a temporary falling-out between friends. Given the media's spin that Americans deserve to be killed by jihadis for what the media perceives to be American transgressions, it's only a matter of time before Saudi-sponsored terrorists renew their terror campaign on American soil. Saudis probably think that like the media, Americans will be so guilt-ridden that they will blame GWB instead of fingering the appropriate culprits - terrorists supported by Saudi Arabia and other Muslim countries.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-06-30 4:35:47 PM|| [http://www.polipundit.com] 2004-06-30 4:35:47 PM|| Front Page Top

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