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2003-12-25 Iraq

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Posted by phil_b 2003-12-25 4:10:57 AM|| || Front Page|| [2 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 For reasons I would rather leave out of this post, I know a lot about what is going on in the reconstruction effort by Bechtel - the above is not just severly EFL it is giga-EFL. It reminds me of the secret to good SciFi - you always take a grain of reality and mix it with an ocean of plain old wishful make-believe.

Posted by Jack is Back! 2003-12-25 5:59:05 AM|| 2003-12-25 5:59:05 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Jack, I'm not an insider and I can guess without difficulty. Air conditioners and "urgently needed spare parts for ... antiquated turbines" must be manufactured. I suspect the both were ordered months back. If the air conditioners are standard products, someone could have had them already in the pipeline. Spares, especially for "antiquated turbines" would almost certainly need tool-up before getting scheduled into production. This is called lead-time. Last I heard new steam turbines for US delivery were in the several-year range. These headaches are often eased by ~~bribes~~ premiums negotiated up-front between businesses, but if taxpayer$ are involved here, it's politically incorrect to offer or solicit such.

I see no Bechtel comment here. A responsible journalist [Big blip on the oxymoron meter. Regular moron meter, too.] would get one before leaping into print.

Anyway that's my science fiction story from this.

Posted by Glenn (not Reynolds) 2003-12-25 8:59:48 AM|| 2003-12-25 8:59:48 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 But couldn't all these problem have been worked out, in detail, before the tanks rolled. I know that would have delayed the attack a few days but wouldn't a couple of days have been worth the effort. New turbines of German manufacture, could have been hitched up to the rear of M1A1's without to much sweat. Those babies are loaded with horsepower. Shameful

Posted by Lucky 2003-12-25 11:51:10 AM|| 2003-12-25 11:51:10 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 The administration clearly failed to pay attention to the many newspaper articles in the last decade detailing the broken and antiquated nature of the Iraqi utility infrastructure. Those articles, complete with full descriptions and part numbers, were obviously sufficient information for Bush I to have established a complete purchase order to replace this equipment *the minute* we entered Baghdad -- isn't that what those "supposed" pre-positioning ships were all about?

/sarcasm

Posted by snellenr 2003-12-25 12:23:17 PM|| 2003-12-25 12:23:17 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 Lucky,

But could all these poblem have been worked out in detail, before the tanks rolled.

I trust that you're joking. The problems couldn't even be defined before the tanks rolled because the data wasn't available to us. Retrofitting an old plant is always a challenge even when you have full access to it --- I speak from personal experience --- one continually finds "suprises" that need to be worked around.

Power plant turbines don't fit on the back of tanks! :-) The attempt to get "critical parts" is undoubtedly a realistic attempt to get the units back on line faster than they could be replaced with new turbines. The thing about this approach is that you CAN'T pre-plan it because you have any way of finding out which critical parts are needed until you can physically inspect the units.

The long lead-time issue has been mentioned above for new turbines. I don't know if the 7 year number is accurate ---- probably is for really large turbines --- but I do know from experience that we were looking at 24 months of lead-time (from the time of placing the order) for "medium sized" (I forget the KW rating and I'd rather not give a number than give an incorrect one --- we were designing and buidling a good-sized industrial co-gen facility). Note that the 24 months is "FROM TIME OF PLACEMENT OF ORDER" and since turbines are all built to order, there's quite a bit of serious work to do specififying exactly what you wnat before that point. That "quite a bit of work" generally takes 3-6 months since there are a lot of interrelated factors that have to be developed before the unit can be specified.

In the case of retrofit projects (like rebuilding the facilities in Iraq) you can't get all of the information you need until you have access to the facility. There's no such thing as a "standard power plant turbine, Mark I" that you can order in advance and just install in the existing foundation, etc.

Also, the "mere" job to "installing" a power plant turbine is not simiple. They are generally "erected" on site, and it's a time consuming and very critical process. 3-6 months to do that job is not unusual.

So, getting the parts to retore the existing units will be a lot more timely --- and probably MUCH cheaper --- BUT, you have to inspect the turbine before you can determine what you need.

All the Best.

Posted by Ralph 2003-12-25 12:34:41 PM|| 2003-12-25 12:34:41 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 Power plant turbines don't fit on the back of tanks! :-)

You'd need an army of Luckies to do that.

Posted by Shipman 2003-12-25 2:11:48 PM|| 2003-12-25 2:11:48 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 Guys, guys: While everyone is having fun showing off their knowledge (or lack thereof ~~at least in my case~~) of generating power, the issue isn't air conditioners or turbine parts. phil_b's point is to rebuke a ham-fisted spin indictment of Western Capitalism. Personally being a Western Capitalist, I share the outrage.

Posted by Glenn (not Reynolds) 2003-12-25 4:56:15 PM|| 2003-12-25 4:56:15 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 Thanks Glenn! That was my point. The lesson from Eastern Europe is it takes years to get free markets running half way decently. But once they do start to work there is an accelerating process of them working progressively better. Iraq was a centrally planned socialist 'economy' it will take at least as long in Iraq.

The Asia Times Online is just an extreme example of journalists and others pontificating on subjects they do not have a clue about. To try and blame Bechtel just demonstrates your ignorance of how capitalism works. Bechtel is in Iraq to make money, if they weren't senior managers would find themselves in court. That is not to say individuals who work for Bechtel are not in Iraq for idealistic reasons. I suspect many of them are.

Posted by phil_b 2003-12-25 10:54:56 PM|| 2003-12-25 10:54:56 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 phil: Well....... I almost see it that way. Docena, whoeverthehell he is, is [suprise meter? nope.] sharpening an axe. He rants about how the Euro companies who made the "antiquated turbines" are locked out of the process. Two comments on that premise:

1. Those Eurocompanies are not "locked out" of Iraq at all. They're free to come in and bid maintenance contracts for their stuff. They're just "locked out" of competing for U$-funded stuff. It would appear there aren't dinar$ to fund this.

2. Those Eurocompanies are also not "locked out" of subbing to Bechtel. That's not unlikely, but then there's still the problem of industrial lead-times, and that's also going on. It's a question of whose pipeline.

The issue is political fucking ideology, period. As my old boss used to say, pardon my French.

Looking at the time, it looks like I maybe got the last word in here. Not on purpose.

Posted by Glenn (not Reynolds) 2003-12-26 12:02:58 AM|| 2003-12-26 12:02:58 AM|| Front Page Top

#10 Glenn, i'm about 15 hours ahead of you :-)

Posted by phil-b 2003-12-26 1:43:38 AM|| 2003-12-26 1:43:38 AM|| Front Page Top

01:43 phil-b
00:06 RW2004
00:02 Glenn (not Reynolds)
00:01 RW2004
23:59 Mark
23:47 Zhang Fei
23:37 ruprecht
23:16 4thInfVet
22:57 CrazyFool
22:55 Old Patriot
22:54 phil_b
22:42 Glenn (not Reynolds)
22:41 mhw
22:37 phil_b
22:21 Glenn (not Reynolds)
22:00 JenLArt
21:50 Vlad the Muslim Impaler
21:23 4thInfVet
21:13 Frank G
21:07 Frank G
21:04 4thInfVet
21:02 Paul Moloney
20:59 Whiskey Mike
20:48 Steve