Article

2008-07-18 Science & Technology

Indonesian Avian Flu Mortality Much Higher

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Posted by Anonymoose 2008-07-18 00:00|| || Front Page|| [3 views ] Top

#1 The difference between a pandemic and no pandemic is in all likelyhood fairly modest preventative measures, we in the West would take for granted, and many developing countries are capable of implementing, as Vietnam and Thailand showed.

The problem in Indonesia is a mixture of muslim fatalism and rampant corruption, which leads to a culture where all is show, nothing is substance.

Posted by phil_b 2008-07-18 01:22|| 2008-07-18 01:22|| Front Page Top

#2 Sounds like congress.... Except that they worship the almightly SIG... (Special Interest Group)

Posted by CrazyFool 2008-07-18 01:25|| 2008-07-18 01:25|| Front Page Top

#3 Gaia is angry!

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2008-07-18 08:29|| 2008-07-18 08:29|| Front Page Top

#4 Nah, if Gaia was truly angry she'd pop a couple of those Indonesian volcanoes so we could enjoy another Little Ice Age.

Posted by Procopius2k 2008-07-18 09:01|| 2008-07-18 09:01|| Front Page Top

#5 Mortality much higher.

Duh, you can't cure it with a chicken foot and a magic dance.

Posted by bigjim-ky 2008-07-18 09:34|| 2008-07-18 09:34|| Front Page Top

#6 This is scary because even the developed world would likely not be much better off.

We will have vaccine for only 10% of the population six months after we know what the H2H strain is, in full production.

Second, while we have antivirals, we don't have any that really completely work, just give some partial protection.

Third, perhaps 20% of those who could have survived won't, because we have a shortage of respirators, just barely enough for a normal flu season.

What it will boil down to, is if you have the disease, you will get a chest X-Ray. The doctor can tell with one glance whether you are might live, with help, or die. And of those that might live, only a fraction are going to get the respirators they need to live.

This means that our first line of defense, sanitation and isolation, are our best means of defense. If you don't want to die, don't get sick.

Posted by Anonymoose 2008-07-18 14:18|| 2008-07-18 14:18|| Front Page Top

#7 Gaia is subtle, and mysterious are her ways!

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2008-07-18 15:26|| 2008-07-18 15:26|| Front Page Top

#8 Moose, my comment was about whether a pandemic starts or not. Stopping a pandemic in the early stages is fairly easy. Once it gets going with daily cases in the thousands (or even less) it will be impossible to stop.

The stocks of vaccine and antivirals are there to put a blanket on small outbreaks. Once a small outbreak becomes a big outbreak these stocks are irrelevant.

Posted by phil_b 2008-07-18 19:18|| 2008-07-18 19:18|| Front Page Top

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