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#1 Vietnam has a number of claims in the area too, and there is absolutely no love lost between them and China.
Posted by OldSpook 2012-05-16 13:44||
#2 What the NYT calls a fight, I call a walkover. Unless China invades Manila, I don't see Uncle Sam jumping in. The Philippines is paying for its string of bad choices ranging from its eviction of American bases in the 90's, its lousy taste in political leaders and its public's support for zeroing out the defense budget. This is why the Pinoys have zero fighter aircraft and sail a retired (and long in the tooth) gun-armed Vietnam-era USCG cutter as its capital ship, while Vietnam flies SU-27's and sails Kilo-class subs despite having half the annual industrial output.
Posted by Zhang Fei 2012-05-16 16:04||
#3 If China is militarily far ahead of other claimants to the seas, in the long term it may have a problem that is rooted in simple geography, said Mr. Harold. ¬"Outside of China and Taiwan, there is no one else in the world who looks at the cow tongue map and says, ¬'oh yeah, that¬'s legitimate,¬" he said.
This is head-shakingly obtuse. Why would the Chinese care if anyone recognizes their claim, as long as no one attempts to evict them from the area? Chinese control over the SCS is becoming fait accompli much as it is over Tibet.
Posted by Zhang Fei 2012-05-16 16:15||
#4 I think the Vietnamese would disagree somewhat. And China got bit the last time they went after Vietnam - the Vietnamese didn't go for their ploy, and China failed to get them out of Cambodia - and the Chinese committing quite a few divisions, while the Vietnamese inflicted heavy casualties without engaging any of their regular divisions - using mainly militia and border units.
China may thing twice before they try to really militarily bully Vietnam and drive Vietname into the US side of things. Be funny to see USN and USAF assets there for "friendship" exercises (if we had a president with the stones to do it).
Posted by OldSpook 2012-05-16 19:57||
#5 Reunification + integration efforts wid Taiwan has stalled - its not only stalled, but may reverse towards nullity which Beijing cannot accept.
China wants its "post-US" power + influence ASAP AMAP ALAP, but said same is keyed on it China getting back TOTAL sovereign control oer Taiwan.
LEST WE FERGIT, TAIWAN + HAINAN + SRI LANKA = RISING CHINA'S THREE ALL-IMPORTANT "TURTLES OF WAR/IRON" [Islands] FOR ITS FUTURE, "POST-US", "MANIFEST DESTINY", OF WHICH TAIWAN IN NE ASIA IS THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT ONE.
* E.G. WORLD MILITARY FORUM > HONG-KONG "ZHANG-BAO" MEDIA: RYUKYUS/OKINAWA IS NOT JAPANESE TERRITORY, ISLANDS [Okinawa Archipelago, etc.] SHOULD BE RETURNED TO CHINA OR ELSE GIVEN INDEPENDENCE.
* SAME > NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY EXPERT ZHANG HUIDONG: CHINA'S POLICY ON STRATEGIC /KEY PACIFIC ISLANDS SHOULD EMULATE OR MIRROR AGGRESSIVE LATE 19TH-EARLY 20th CENTURY US IMPERIALISM, espec where the US suddenly became a recognized international power after defeating Spain = Spanish Empire in the 1898 Spanish-American War.
China = McKinley-Roosevelt era US = must stop being "Continental/Continentalist" + move towards adopting or being "International/
Int'list". IOW, TO ACHIEVE ITS "POST-US" AGENDA, NUCLEAR RISING CHINA MUST REDISCOVER ITS MILPOL-AGGRESSIVE "YOUNG TURK" HERITAGE.
Sub-IOW, CHINA MUST HAVE NO FEAR OF WAR - MAJOR OR MINOR, LIMITED OR TOTAL, CONVENTIONAL OR NUCLEAR.
* SAME > US MUST RECOGNIZE THAT THE SITUATION IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC HAS CHANGED: CONTROL OR DOMINATION OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC IS CENTRAL/KEY TO CHINA'S GRAND SUCCESS OR FAILURE AS A "POST-US" SUPERPOWER + GLOBAL LEADER. CHINA CAN NO LONGER ALLOW WESTPAC TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF ITS DIRECT CONTROL, I.E. GEOPOL NEUTRAL, AUTONOMOUS OR FLEXIBLE/FLUID [heterogenous] AS DURING THE 20TH CENTURY + POST-1945 US-SOVIET COLD WAR. POWER TRANSFER FROM US + WESTERN EUROPE/EU TO CHINA + MAINLAND ASIA.
* SAME > CHINA'S ECONOMY VULNERABLE TO GROWING MUSLIM JIHADIST + ETHNIC MILITANT THREAT IN SE ASIA + MALAYA-INDONESIA, STABLE INDIA IN THE FACE OF PAKISTAN-BASED MILITANT PRESSURE IS IN CHINA'S "CORE" OR STRATEGIC INTERESTS.
As per #2, the above should tell the PHIL that their way andor method of doing things geopol HAS TO CHANGE, H-A-S TO CHANGE,, NOT "MIGHT" OR "SHOULD" CHANGE. IIUC, China is prepar to become more Regionally, Globally MilPol assertive or agressive vis-a-vis its geopol position agz the USA - IFF THE PHIL DOESN'T CHANGE, IT'LL BE RUN OVER LIKE THE PROVERBIAL CHICKEN, FROG, OR BOONIE DOG TRYING TO CROSS A ROAD FULL OF [Chin-made/driven]FAST CARS..
[FAST-N-FURIOUS: BEIJING/MANILA BUGALOO here].
Posted by JosephMendiola 2012-05-16 20:49||
#6 More from WMF > CHINESE MARITIME AUTHORITIES BEGIN THE [forced] EXPULSION OF FISHERMEN FROM THE PHILIPPINES' SIDE OF HUANGYAN ISLAND [Scarborough SHoal = PHIL Panatag Reef/Island].
* SAME > OFFICIAL: CHINA DEMANDS THAT PHILIPPINES' VESSELS NO LONGER INTERFERE WID CHINESE FISHING BOATS IN DISPUTED SHOAL.
* SAME > PLA SENDS "ENTERTAINMENT" TROUPE TO CHINESE GARRISON IN XISHA ISLANDS [Paracel Islands].
This is more evidencia/indicia that, despite its Diplomatic, Media rhetoric to the contrary, CHINA IS INDEED PREPARING FOR MIL CONFLICT IN THE SCS.
China is no longer interested in any bilateral or multilateral dev of UW SCS resources wid ASEAN Nations, Other widout formal recognition from Same to China's "sole" or absolute sovereignty oer the disputed islands.
Posted by JosephMendiola 2012-05-16 21:06||