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Secret Joint Raid Captures Mullah Barader in Karachi
Today's Headlines
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Afghanistan
Let India Train the Afghan Army
By SUMIT GANGULY

Training the Afghan army is "the most critical part" of America's "long-term strategy" in the country, U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrooke said Monday. Pakistan agrees, and has suggested it can help, too. Yet the best candidate for the task is the Indian Army.

This million-strong force has had close to 60 years' of intense counterinsurgency experience in a variety of terrains. Indian troops have successfully carried out campaigns in jungles in India's northeast, at high altitudes in Jammu and Kashmir and in the plains in the Punjab. Its officers and enlisted men have counterinsurgency experience in both urban and rural environments.

India already has the capacity to impart this knowledge to friendly forces. The country boasts one of the world's largest military training establishments, with the ability to train officers and men for varying combat duties. Educational facilities include a major counterinsurgency training base—the Counterinsurgency and Jungle Warfare School—and a school focused on urban warfare in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, the site of an ongoing insurgency. Both can simulate a variety of combat situations and provide the Afghan Army with training relevant to the terrain and physical conditions that its troops are likely to encounter upon deployment. India's counterinsurgency schools also come complete with firing ranges, obstacle courses and training areas for the detection and handling of improvised explosive devices.

Beyond such infrastructure, however, the Indian Army has at its command significant accumulated knowledge of counterinsurgency operations and techniques. Its substantial cadre of instructors have ample field experience and routinely train India's forces in counterinsurgency operations. The Indian military has formulated a viable, codified doctrine to fight counterinsurgency. This doctrine calls for important restraints on the use of force, highlights the significance of not alienating civilian populations, insists upon respect for local customs and emphasizes the importance of an eventual political solution to all insurgencies. These principles are routinely stressed in the curricula of the counterinsurgency schools and applied to the best extent possible in field operations. There is little reason to believe that within a specified span of time they could not be inculcated into the Afghan Army too.

Finally, thanks to some setbacks over the years, most notably in its operations in Sri Lanka and subsequently in Jammu and Kashmir, the Indian Army has taken heed of and learned a great deal from its past errors. Its leadership has undertaken a number of organizational innovations to best cope with counterinsurgency operations. Since 1990, for instance, India has fielded a contingent called the Rashtriya Rifles (literally "National Rifles"), forces with an optimal "teeth to tail" ratio, specifically trained in counterinsurgency operations. These units, drawn from the regular Indian Army, have proven especially effective when deployed in Jammu and Kashmir and have managed to restore more than a modicum of order in the state.

The Indian Army has other advantages, too. Thanks to its cheap labor costs, it can train Afghan forces at a fraction of the costs of training them in similar duties almost anywhere in the United States or Western Europe. Rank and file Afghan soldiers would feel much more at ease in India than in most other parts of the world. India has cultural bonds with Afghanistan of very long standing and Afghans have over centuries traveled to various parts of northern India. Finally, critics of the Indian Army's counterinsurgency operations notwithstanding, its forces have learned to operate within the scope of the rule of law. Many officers who have exceeded their brief have been subject to court-martial and charges of human-rights violations are not swept under the carpet.

If training the Afghan Army is as important as the U.S.-led coalition says it is, then why not accelerate training in the place that's best served to do it? Not turning to India would amount to a grave strategic error.

Mr. Ganguly holds the Ngee Ann Kongsi Chair in International Relations at the Rajaratnam School for International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
Posted by: john frum || 02/16/2010 14:40 || Comments || Link || [2 views] Top|| File under:

#1  I thought it would have been a brilliant stroke to have invited India into Afghanistan, and at some point, at least, they offered to do so, but were snubbed. Likely the Pakistani military about had a dog stroke with the very idea.

But that being said, why not invite India in, quietly, on condition that they limit their activities to western Afghanistan, on the border with Iran, and interdicting drugs flowing to Europe through Iran?
Posted by: Anonymoose || 02/16/2010 15:38 Comments || Top||

#2  Anonymoose, I seem to recall India is doing roadbuilding and such in an obscure corner of Afghanistan. Who knows what else they're doing out of the public eye?
Posted by: trailing wife || 02/16/2010 20:06 Comments || Top||

#3  All India needs is a land route across 'disputed' Pak Occupied Kashmir.
Posted by: phil_b || 02/16/2010 22:22 Comments || Top||


Caribbean-Latin America
“Venecuba', a single nation
Hat tip Fausta.
Hugo Chávez, as he drafts in ever more Cuban aides to shore up his regime, is fulfilling a longstanding dream of Fidel Castro's

IN A small fishing village on the Caribbean coast of Venezuela stands a plinth. Unveiled by government officials in 2006, it pays homage to the Cuban guerrillas sent by Fidel Castro in the 1960s to help subvert Venezuela's then recently restored democracy. Almost entirely bereft of popular support, the guerrilla campaign flopped. But four decades later, and after a decade of rule by Hugo Chávez, Cuba's communist regime seems finally to have achieved its goal of invading oil-rich Venezuela—this time without firing a shot.

Earlier this month Ramiro Valdés, a veteran revolutionary who ranks number three in Cuba's ruling hierarchy and was twice its interior minister, arrived in Caracas, apparently for a long stay. Officially, Mr Valdés has come to head a commission set up by Mr Chávez to resolve Venezuela's acute electricity shortage. But he lacks expertise in this field, and Cuba is famous for 12-hour blackouts. Some members of Venezuela's opposition reckon that Mr Valdés, whose responsibilities at home include policing Cubans' access to the internet, has come to help Mr Chávez step up repression ahead of a legislative election in September. Others believe he was sent to assess the gravity of the situation facing the Castro brothers' most important ally (Cuba depends on Mr Chávez for subsidised oil). He has been seen in meetings with Venezuelan military commanders.

Although by far the most senior, Mr Valdés is only one among many Cubans who have been deployed by Mr Chávez under bilateral agreements that took shape in 2003. As well as thousands of doctors staffing a community-health programme, they include people who are helping to run Venezuela's ports, telecommunications, police training, the issuing of identity documents and the business registry.

In 2005 Venezuela's government gave Cuba a contract to modernise its identity-card system. Since then, Cuban officials have been spotted in agencies such as immigration and passport control. A group of Cubans who recently fled Venezuela told a newspaper in Miami that they had bribed a Cuban official working in passport control at Caracas airport.

In some ministries, such as health and agriculture, Cuban advisers appear to wield more power than Venezuelan officials. The health ministry is often unable to provide statistics—on primary health-care or epidemiology for instance—because the information is sent back to Havana instead. Mr Chávez seemed to acknowledge this last year when, by his own account, he learned that thousands of primary health-care posts had been shut down only when Mr Castro told him so.

Coffee-growers complain that in meetings with the government it is Bárbara Castillo, a former Cuban trade minister, who calls the shots. Ms Castillo, who was formally seconded to Venezuela four years ago, refuses requests for interviews.

Trade unions, particularly in the oil and construction industries, have complained of ill-treatment by the Cubans. No unions are allowed on Cuban-run building sites. In September last year Froilán Barrios of the Confederation of Venezuelan Workers, which opposes the government, said that “oil and petrochemicals are completely penetrated by Cuban G2,' the Castros' fearsomely efficient intelligence service. Oil workers planning a strike said they had been threatened by Cuban officials.

The new national police force and the army have both adopted policies inspired by Cuba. The chief adviser to the national police-training academy is a Cuban, and Venezuela's defence doctrine is based on Cuba's “war of all the people'. Foreign officials who watch Venezuela closely say that Cuban agents occupy key posts in Venezuela's military intelligence agency, but these claims are impossible to verify.

Mr Chávez portrays Cuban help as socialist solidarity in the struggle against “the empire', as he calls the United States. When he was visiting Cuba in 2005 Fidel Castro said publicly to him that their two countries were “a single nation'. “With one flag,' added Mr Chávez, to which Mr Castro replied, “We are Venecubans.' These views are not shared by Venezuelans. In a recent poll 85% of respondents said they did not want their country to become like Cuba. Perhaps Mr Valdés will include that in his assessment.
Posted by: Steve White || 02/16/2010 00:00 || Comments || Link || [1 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Sounds more like "Cubazuela"...
Posted by: tu3031 || 02/16/2010 0:35 Comments || Top||

#2  A couple of years ago I was fully expecting Chavez to be appointed as leader of a combined Cuba/Venezuela when Fidel was stepping down.
Posted by: crosspatch || 02/16/2010 0:44 Comments || Top||

#3  New and improved! Now with twice the blackouts!
Posted by: ed || 02/16/2010 1:04 Comments || Top||

#4  Obviously an example of Blair's Law: "the ongoing process by which the world's multiple idiocies are becoming one giant, useless force"
Posted by: SteveS || 02/16/2010 1:18 Comments || Top||

#5  Yet more confirmation that communists actually in power are uniformly hostile to real, independent unions capable of really acting in the interests of actual workers.
Posted by: Mitch H. || 02/16/2010 12:24 Comments || Top||

#6  This will bog down in ego....The name should be ZOOUBA....not UBAZOOALIA. Perhaps a challenge of windbags to decide the outcome.

Behind this Mic in the feeling blue corner, wearing the latest designer Depends, weighing in at 96 lbs Feeedale CASTRO........While in the crimson corner wearing the checkered loincloth that used to be a scarf, weighing in at a largesse inflated 500 lbs....Hugo the BO BO Chavez.....


Both will test their wind bag selves in a shout about, unitl the last fan breathes no more....
Posted by: Thor Spegum8770 || 02/16/2010 14:39 Comments || Top||

#7  Yet more confirmation that communists actually in power are uniformly hostile to real, independent unions capable of really acting in the interests of actual workers.

They're really really honestly going to help the working class, just as soon as they're done with their daily five-minute hate for Sarah Palin. Did you hear that &^$% really wanted to drill for oil here instead of buying it from the aristos in Saudi Arabia?
Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain || 02/16/2010 14:39 Comments || Top||

#8  Score anuther one for YEAR 2010 = YEAR OF THE "LEFT FIELD".
Posted by: JosephMendiola || 02/16/2010 18:54 Comments || Top||


Economy
Goldman Sachs Goes Rogue -- Special European Audit To Follow
Posted by: Besoeker || 02/16/2010 01:34 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Go ahead, blame it on Goldman instead of the sovereign, elected governments.
Posted by: Perfesser || 02/16/2010 10:38 Comments || Top||

#2  Perfesser, that strawman don't dance. No one is saying that, in this case, Greece doesn't deserve the blame, too.

There can be more than one party to the fraud. This is the same kind of crap that the bigwigs and pols pulled here. It's all part of the crony-capitalist (aka fascist) procedure to privatise the gains and socialize the losses.

A perfect example is the purchase of a failed bank by One West Bank. Research it and you will find the fingerprints of all the usual suspects from the Paulson's to George Soros and Chris Dodd that wound up with One West getting it's entire investment in soft assets (aka dubious mortgages) not only gauranteed by the gov't but with a built in huge profit and fee.

THAT'S the kind of behavior that is fueling the Tea Parties.
Posted by: AlanC || 02/16/2010 11:38 Comments || Top||

#3  crony-capitalist (aka fascist)

Crony capitalist, yes, but not fascist. Fascism reqires race-nationalist ideology + aggressive military expansionism, so that doesn't apply. Also, fascists are better organized, and co-opt EVERY major corporate social group, from churches to associations to various branches of the military. The only grouping that Barry's concerned with is the unions.

There's a more accurate, more concise way to express this phenom: oligarchy. Think of Barry's USA as Latin America North.
Posted by: lex || 02/16/2010 11:48 Comments || Top||

#4  Franco managed to keep Spain a fascist backwater until he died of old age without the aggressive military expansionism and with a pretty muted race-nationalist ideology.

But I agree B.O.'s not a fascist. Fascists aren't Marxist.
Posted by: Fred || 02/16/2010 13:18 Comments || Top||


India-Pakistan
Fasten your seatbelts
US Defence Secretary Robert Gates predicted during his visit to India that the Lashkar-e-Taiba, or LeT, would launch an attack on India to trigger an Indo-Pakistan conflict. While commending India's restraint following the 26/11 Mumbai attack, he wondered whether India's patience would endure in that case. The Pune attack signals that this testing moment has arrived for India. It is time for the Indian government, strategic community, media (especially the electronic media) and civil society to carefully assess India's national interest — because, in all probability, the Pune terrorist attack is likely to be just the first; others, perhaps even more devastating, are likely to follow. Let us for the moment forget the partisan political rhetoric on the foreign secretaries' talks and concentrate on threats to India and how to tackle them.

The US National Intelligence Advisor, Dennis Blair, told the Senate Intelligence Committee on February 2 that “Pakistan has not consistently pursued militant actors focused on Afghanistan, although Pakistani operations against TTP and similar groups have sometimes temporarily disrupted Al-Qaeda... Simultaneously, Islamabad has maintained relationships with other Taliban-associated groups that support and conduct operations against US and ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) forces in Afghanistan... It has continued to provide support to its militant proxies... The Al-Qaeda, Afghan Taliban, and Pakistani militant safe haven in Quetta will continue to enable the Afghan insurgents and Al-Qaeda to plan operations, direct propaganda, recruiting and training activities, and fundraising activities with relative impunity.'

American and British forces have launched their biggest operation since 2001 in a place called Marjah in the Helmand province of southern Afghanistan. The US has every reason to be worried that the Afghan Taliban forces under attack will retreat into Pakistani territory and obtain a safe haven in which to regroup.

When Robert Gates spoke about the LeT triggering off an Indo-Pakistan conflict, he had in mind the precedent of Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar being pursued by the Northern Alliance and being cornered in the Tora Bora mountains — only to discover a safe haven in Pakistan in December 2001. At that time the Pakistani army was supposed to block their entry into Pakistan. But General Musharraf withdrew his forces from the border to allow the Al-Qaeda and Afghan Taliban leaders in. He justified his action with the alibi that Pakistan faced a threat from India under Operation Parakram, launched in the wake of the December 13 attack on Parliament by the LeT. In fact that attack was a deliberate trigger to cause an Indian mobilisation, thus providing Musharraf with an alibi. Gates was anticipating that the Pakistani army would again resort to the same trick to create Indo-Pakistanconfrontation that would be an alibi allowing the Pakistan army to let the Taliban retreat into Pakistan to save it from a rout. Ever since the Marjah offensive was imminent, the last few weeks, the US has issued a terrorist threat advisory.

That explains why Chidambaram says there was no intelligence failure. This attack was expected and it is logical to expect more LeT attacks — and probably more severe attacks, sufficiently provocative to create immense pressure on India to retaliate with a military response. Pakistan desperately wants Indian jingoistic rhetoric: talk of military response, our strategists holding forth on a “cold start' and our media screaming for retaliation. They may not need an actual military response; even our politics and media, if sufficiently jingoistic, will be adequate for Pakistan to move their troops away from their western border to the east, allow safe haven to the Afghan Taliban and blame it all on the “Indian threat'.

The next couple of weeks are crucial. Pakistan has to generate its alibi well before the Afghan Taliban are pushed across the border. The LeT will have prepared contingency plans for attacks on Indian targets and developed the appropriate sleeper cells to carry them out. In this respect David Headley will be a valuable source of information. The closest coordination between Indian and US security agencies is called for to assess the possible targets, the nature of the attacks and their intensities. It is not only necessary for Indian and US security agencies to cooperate but also to be seen to be cooperating.

Will the Americans allow themselves to be taken for a ride for a second time and allow the Afghan Taliban to escape? If so, then there is no way the surge strategy will work, and the US and NATO will have to purchase reconcilable Taliban and ensure they stay purchased. The latest US Quadrennial Defence Review (QDR) says that “the first (objective) is to prevail in today's wars' — the first time this objective has appeared in a QDR. “Achieving our objectives in Afghanistan and Iraq has moved to the top of the institutional military's budgeting, policy, and programme priorities. We now recognise that America's ability to deal with threats for years to come will depend importantly on our success in the current conflicts.'

In other words, if the Americans do not win this campaign in Afghanistan they can forget about not only being a preeminent economic and technological power but a preeminent military power. They will have been defeated not by the Taliban — but by the wily ISI, that they themselves trained in the 1980s. Will that be acceptable? The Pakistanis will have reversed the results of the 2001 campaign, restored the Taliban to Afghanistan, sustained the LeT threats to the US homeland and perhaps kept alive Osama bin Laden and Al-Zawahiri.

India should not walk into the Pakistani trap. Can the government of India afford to do so?

The writer is a senior defence analyst
Posted by: john frum || 02/16/2010 19:47 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:


Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Hamas' success strengthens Al Qaeda
Posted by: ryuge || 02/16/2010 09:33 || Comments || Link || [3 views] Top|| File under:

#1  define"success"
Posted by: Floper Lumumba5710 || 02/16/2010 13:32 Comments || Top||


Israel: Where are the pressure points?
Posted by: tipper || 02/16/2010 03:41 || Comments || Link || [1 views] Top|| File under:

#1  More than anything else, Israel and the Jews have long needed something they have refused to embrace: excommunication. Not just expulsion from the Jewish faith, but utter and complete rejection of "bad Jews" from the Jewish culture and ethnic group. Also from Israel itself.

In Judaism, this would be a novel concept, because even in the Tanakh of the Hebrews, there was no alternative to membership in a tribe, other than death, or the end of your tribe as a group, absorbed by another tribe.

Such an idea would not be retroactive, so for example, Leon Trotsky would always be remembered as being a Jew. But in future, a Jew who threatened Israel or the Jewish people with destruction could be declared "not a Jew".

Very rare to be carried out, in practice such a declaration would be more a deterrent against "self-hating Jews", that they not overdo their hatred against Jews and Israel, as they have in the past, nor too openly embrace the Jewish and Israeli enemies.
Posted by: Anonymoose || 02/16/2010 9:14 Comments || Top||

#2  Sometimes I think the tranzis want to find out that would've happened if defenders of Metzada had WMDs.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru || 02/16/2010 9:22 Comments || Top||

#3  I'm confused, Anonymoose. Why would the Jews expel members they didn't like instead of trying and convicting under the law those who break it? America doesn't strip the citizenship of those who behave badly, we convict them in a fair trial, then punish according to established precedent. Judaism isn't a country club, where those who pick their noses are blackballed for unacceptable behaviour, and only those with a certain number of votes are accepted in the first place.
Posted by: trailing wife || 02/16/2010 10:51 Comments || Top||

#4  Eh, its not that you're not not a Jew its just that you're not a Jew. Cause your mother is isn't a Jew but your Fadder is.
Posted by: Cromosh Threatle9076 || 02/16/2010 11:05 Comments || Top||


Terror Networks
The Jihad Against the Jihadis
Posted by: tipper || 02/16/2010 04:39 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Fareed Zakaria is a talented writer but he is a wishful thinker who hangs with muslim secularists (and he is an apologist for Islam).

In his litany of news he avoids or minimizes the issues of

- islamization of Turkey
- islamization of Malyasia and Indonesia
- the continued ethnic cleansing of non moslems in Pakistan, Turkey, Bangladesh and Egypt
- the gang wars of islamists vs islamists in Gaza, Somalia, etc.
- the radicalization of hundreds of thousands of madrassa students
- the recruitment of converts in prison
- the establishment of sharia enclaves in big cities in the west
Posted by: lord garth || 02/16/2010 8:24 Comments || Top||

#2  Fareed Zakaria is a talented writer but he is a wishful thinker

Whether consciously or not, he's another Taqiah peddler.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru || 02/16/2010 9:11 Comments || Top||



Who's in the News
61[untagged]
5Govt of Iran
3Hamas
2Commies
2Hezbollah
2Jamaat-e-Islami
2Taliban
2TTP
2Govt of Pakistan
1al-Shabaab
1Usbat al-Ansar
1al-Qaeda in Pakistan
1PFLP

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A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.

Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.

Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has dominated Mexico for six years.
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Meet the Mods
In no particular order...
Steve White
Seafarious
tu3031
badanov
sherry
ryuge
GolfBravoUSMC
Bright Pebbles
trailing wife
Gloria
Fred
Besoeker
Glenmore
Frank G
3dc
Skidmark

Two weeks of WOT
Tue 2010-02-16
  Secret Joint Raid Captures Mullah Barader in Karachi
Mon 2010-02-15
  Two al-Qaeda members arrested after clash with Mauritanian security services
Sun 2010-02-14
  Taliban leaders flee as marines hit stronghold
Sat 2010-02-13
  8 confirmed dead, 33 injured in blast at Pune bakery
Fri 2010-02-12
  Ahmadinejad hails nuke Iran on Revolution Day
Thu 2010-02-11
  US Troops Sealing Off Marjah Escape Routes
Wed 2010-02-10
  Largest Military Offensive In Afghanistan Begins
Tue 2010-02-09
  Pak Talibs confirm Hakimullah Mahsud titzup
Mon 2010-02-08
  Afghan locals flee ahead of Helmand offensive
Sun 2010-02-07
  Jamaat-ud-Dawaa vows to take Hyderabad by force
Sat 2010-02-06
  Jamaat-ud-Dawaa vows to take Kashmir by force
Fri 2010-02-05
   Danish forces free ship captured by pirates
Thu 2010-02-04
  US To Send 18,000 More Troops to Afghanistan By Spring
Wed 2010-02-03
  Aafia Siddiqui Guilty
Tue 2010-02-02
  Philippines offers MILF autonomy

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