We can see what specifically must worry Putin in a new must-read interview with Hamm (courtesy of Christopher Helman at Forbes). Hamm, referencing the fact that American shale producers have in the past half-dozen years nearly doubled America's oil output, says: "We can double it again." If Hamm is correct, then the shale fields alone-never mind the rest of America's onshore and offshore production-would be producing more oil than Russia, and the world markets would again be in oversupply.For Russia, almost three-fourths of all export revenues and over half its national budget comes from selling oil & gas. The problem is that, according to the World Bank, Russia needs oil at $100 per barrel to balance its domestic budget and fund its military and foreign ambitions. It's expensive to buy modern weapons, including the missiles Russia has deployed across the NATO frontier. And it's expensive to meddle in foreign nations whether by deploying troops in the Ukraine and Syria, or funneling "gray" money to bad actors from Africa to South America.
Following Secretary Ashton's rhetorical call to arms, we now have the New York Times editorial board agreeing with the SecDef that "deterring Russia is essential." Perhaps the Times in calling for alternatives to "big wars" and "costly weapons" in dealing with our adversaries, might come to appreciate that America's new petroleum power presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.