[Express] PARIS: The contours of Russia's strategy in Syria are emerging as it tries to carve out a rebel-free zone for Bashar al-Assad's regime and shut out Western forces from his air space.Although the stated aim of Russia's mission was to target the Islamic State (IS) group, most analysts have dismissed these claims as window-dressing for a campaign that primarily seeks to prop up Assad's embattled regime against a much broader group of rebels.
"The priority for the Russians is to protect 'useful Syria'," said Michel Goya, a military historian at Sciences Po university in Paris, referring to the densely-populated western and coastal parts of the country where Syrian industry and agriculture are concentrated.
He said the Russians' first priority was attacking al Qaeda affiliate Al-Nusra, who are a more immediate threat in those areas than IS.
The few Russian strikes against IS targets are only to "justify their campaign but it's not really their priority," he added.
"The strategic objective is to secure an Alawite 'safe zone'... leaving the eastern, desert part of the country to (IS)," wrote Igor Sutyagin, of the Royal United Services Institute, in a recent analysis note.
Assad and much of the leadership come from the Alawite ethnic group based along the western coast, who fear they will be wiped out if extremists take over the country.
Since the Alawites make up only 12 per cent of the population, "control of the whole country is politically impossible and perhaps not even considered necessary for Damascus anymore," wrote Sutyagin.