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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Jordan might intervene in southern Syria
2015-07-03
The civil war in Syria has reached such a tipping point for one of the most stable and US-friendly regimes in the Middle East. The Jordanian military is actively implementing plans to create a humanitarian buffer zone in the south of the country, Sam Jones, Roula Khalaf and Erika Solomon report for the Financial Times.

Jordan’s military envisions an operation that would set up a humanitarian corridor in the southern Syrian provinces of Deraa and Suwayda.
And then keeping those provinces once the fighting is over, as a reward for their "humanitarian" assistance...
The Assad regime is currently in nominal control of these provinces. But a coordinated rebel offensive, consisting in large part of fighters from the Al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, has sparked concern in Jordan that a full-scale Syrian withdrawal from the area could occur, provoking chaos along the border.

Jordan worries that jihadists could establish a permanent foothold along the country’s border with Syria, or sue the area for attacks on the country’s generally pro-US monarchy. As the FT reports, Jordanian leaders want to “avoid ‘another Idlib'” in the region, a reference to the March withdrawal of the Assad regime from the northern city in the face of a rebel and jihadist offensive. “Diplomats say Amman and its international allies are keen to avoid ‘another Idlib‘, referring to the Assad regime’s withdrawal from the city in March; jihadis soon took advantage of the retreat and established a strong presence there.”

The zone of control would likely include the Syrian city of Deraa, and would be manned by US and Jordan-supported moderate rebels along with more direct Jordanian military support.
But mostly more direct Jordanian military support...
Southern Syria comprises the entirety of Jordan’s northern border and any chaos could easily spill over the border. Deraa itself is within 45 miles of Amman, the Jordanian capital.

The Jordanian military in general, and its special forces in particular, is regarded as one of the more effective fighting forces in the region.
Tallest dwarves in the Arab circus...
Jordan maintains a close military relationship with the US, and Jordanian special forces have participated in operations in Afghanistan. The special forces have also proven adept at intelligence-gathering operations.

Jordan is a member of the US-led coalition against ISIS and has conducted airstrikes against the militant group in both Iraq and Syria. In the beginning of February, Jordan launched dozens of strikes in Syria following the execution of Jordanian pilot Moaz al-Kasabe.

Jordan’s willingness to directly intervene within Syria reflects a growing regional unease with the already chaotic situation in the country, where as many as 320,000 have been killed over the course of a 4-year-old civil war. A number of Turkish newspaper sources have also reported that Ankara is seriously considering a ground operation that would establish a humanitarian buffer zone along the Turkish border in northern Syria.

The Turkish operation would be aimed at limiting Syrian Kurdish ability to declare an independent state while striking against ISIS and stopping the flow of Syrian refugees over the border.

Israel has also signalled that it could be willing to intervene in southern Syria in order to protect the Druze minority in the country if jihadists or the Assad regime ever threatened the survival of the religious minority group in areas near the Israel-controlled Golan Heights.
Posted by:Steve White