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| Terror Networks |
| From Theory to Action: The Rationale behind the Re-establishment of the Caliphate |
| 2014-07-31 |
| Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 12 Issue: 15 We should expect IS to continue to foil predictions. However, if they are following Abu Bakr Naji's strategy for establishing an emirate, we should be able to see the broad strokes of the Islamic State's strategic thinking. [9] Naji's strategy has been adopted by AQAP's leader, Nasir Abd al-Karim al-Wuhayshi, and extolled by another influential ISIS supporter, Abu Sa'ad al-Amili. To paraphrase the AQAP leader's advice to other Muslims about judging al-Qaeda, we should look at Naji's book, Idarah al-Tawahhush (Administration of Savagery), and look at what ISIS is doing before deciding whether this jihadist group is following a rational plan or simply running boldly on a tightrope over a deep canyon. Naji's plan would have ISIS conquering areas after the mujahideen have driven out central government forces by using terrorist tactics and mobilizing the population to their side by polarizing society using money and sectarian politics. They would place these areas under the control of a primitive government one step above a state of nature, which would be accepted by people desperate for security. The mujahideen would introduce more government services over time and expand these areas while defending them from government counterattacks by arming the local population where possible and continuing mujahideen guerrilla operations to compel government forces to defend fixed locations, such as the capital, major religious shrines and economic targets. They would expand each area they control and merge them with others under their control or controlled by ex-military or tribal groups. They would offer the tribes booty taken during their insurgency to gain their allegiance. As a real state begins to appear viable, the mujahideen leaders would send out a worldwide call for administrative experts, managers, judges and others who might help govern a complex state. We know from abundant reporting and IS's first magazine Dabiq that ISIS and now IS have already engaged in all these practices and more in Naji's playbook. This does not mean ISIS is following Naji as a recipe, but it does mean that more attention needs to be paid to Naji's work as experts devise a strategy to defeat ISIS without the use of U.S. military ground forces. More importantly, if the Islamic State is following Naji we should expect them to focus on undermining Saudi Arabia's ruling family and developing a plan to disrupt the flow of energy to the world's economies from the Arabian Peninsula. We should also expect the Islamic State to eventually inspire attacks inside Europe and the United States, with AQAP apparently ready to help in both endeavors if the opportunity arises. |
| Posted by:3dc |
| #1 "driven out central government forces by using terrorist tactics and mobilizing the population to their side by polarizing society using money and sectarian politics." Sounds familiarly local .... |
| Posted by: TopRev 2014-07-31 13:48 |