You have commented 0 times on Rantburg.

We're sorry, but only human beings are allowed to comment on Rantburg. If you're a human being, please take this simple test to prove it. If you're not, get lost.

Hippy bus
Al Capp's Moonbeam McSwine
Swine in love
Scizophrenic mouse
Caveman
Your Name
Your e-mail (optional)
Website (optional)
My Original Nic        Pic-a-Nic        Sorry. Comments have been closed on this article.
Bold Italic Underline Strike Bullet Blockquote Small Big Link Squish Photo
Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Putin Isn't a Genius -- We Are Complete Idiots
2014-04-18
Vladimir Putin happily allowed the Kiev authorities to shoot a few pro-Russian demonstrators while keeping his military forces on ice across the border. I predicted (and am sticking to my story) that Russia will not seize more territory in Eastern Ukraine--not for the time being, in any case. Russia will stand back and watch Ukraine implode, the way Egypt did during the two years following the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak.
Note the new management is very friendly with Russia
Before the Maidan coup, Putin was willing to sit on $15 billion in arrears to Gazprom and put up $18 billion in new money. Now he wants $35 billion in back gas bills, on top of Ukraine's $15 billion a year current account deficit. The IMF wants massive cuts in subsidies, which will make the Kiev government an object of hatred without putting a dent into the problem. Western taxpayers won't cough up $50 billion for Ukraine, not even a small fraction of it.

Yankee Doodle went to Maidan, stuck a feather in his hat and called it democracy. Our foreign policy ideologues are like UFO cultists who are so convinced that space aliens are invading the earth that they see moon men in every glare of swamp gas. In this case, it isn't moon men, but aspiring republicans. First Tahrir Square, then Maidan, were glorious proof of the Manifest Destiny of Western democracy.

A Google search with the terms "Putin" and "genius" yields over 10 million hits. If I hear another pundit's panegyric to Putin's great intellect, I'll lose my lunch. Putin is not that smart; the trouble is that we are complete idiots. When Ukraine imploded, our leaders--from Victoria Nuland at the State Department to the neo-conservatives--rather assumed that we would reverse Ukraine's polarity to the West, and humiliate Russia with the loss of Crimea. Putin called our bluff, and we had no viable military options.

Putin doesn't need to send the Red Army into Ukraine. Every Ukrainian officer above the rank of major came up through the ranks in the Red Army. Ukrainian commanders won't fight the Russians. They are the Russians. Yesterday we watched Ukrainian paratroopers turn their armored vehicles over to Russian separatists. Maybe John McCain can send them more weapons to hand over to Moscow.
Posted by:g(r)omgoru

#6  Putin is in a battle of wits with an unarmed leadership.
Posted by: Bill Clinton   2014-04-18 21:40  

#5  No US president has done so much to advance Russian ambitions since FDR.
Posted by: Iblis   2014-04-18 09:25  

#4  I can't argue one wit with Spengler's assertion that American leaders are complete idiots.

However, while Putin may not be a 'genius', he's quite shrewd. He's confident as a man can be when he knows the cards he's holding in his hand and also the cards his opponents are holding. Putin has a clear understanding of what "Russia" should be even if he doesn't care one fig about ordinary Russians.

That alone makes him the smartest man in the G8.
Posted by: Steve White   2014-04-18 09:10  

#3  White House bluff and bluster, threats of sanctions, are all diplomatic theater and a convenient distraction. Victoria Nuland's attitude toward the EU might indicate a calculated early assessment pointing toward a EU 'do nothing, hands off approach' toward events in the Ukraine. Without our EU partners, our response is conveniently reduced to talking points and meaningless rhetoric.

When Champ pulled the missile defense, the deal had been cut. Not entirely certain what Champ got out of the package, assistance with the AFG withdrawal could have been one element.
Posted by: Besoeker   2014-04-18 08:45  

#2  I read the other day that the U.S. is an oligarchy. I disagree. Our current rulers and the regime, the politburo, are an idiocracy.
Posted by: JohnQC   2014-04-18 08:08  

#1   Putin called our bluff.

This is Putin's mistake; it is well documented and said by Obama himself the he does not bluff.
Posted by: Airandee   2014-04-18 06:55