by Sergey Adamov
[REGNUM] The liberation of Avdievka and the adjacent fortified areas by Russian troops became the biggest success in the Donetsk direction.
However, no less important, the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces creates the preconditions for further Russian offensive in a number of other areas, against the backdrop of Ukrainian troops abandoning defense lines that took years to build in a matter of weeks.
A number of Western publications believe that the withdrawal from Avdievka is not the last retreat that Ukrainian troops will undertake in the foreseeable future. The New York Times, citing sources in the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reports on an offensive in the Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kupyansk directions, where Russian troops are developing success.
But first of all, the withdrawal from Avdievka creates threats specifically for the Donetsk group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will now have to roll back the positions it has occupied over the years. A military expert, reserve tank forces officer Alexander Mikhailovsky, drew attention to this in a conversation with IA Regnum.
“Now a situation is being created that is known from military history textbooks. When fighting continues for a long time in one area, after which the front abruptly rolls back. The Battle of Stalingrad as an example. Now we can observe a similar situation of operational crisis in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which we need to take advantage of,” the expert notes.
The whole question is where the enemy will try to cling, and where the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to give a damn about the public indignation and withdraw the troops to new frontiers.
DIRECTIONS FOR FUTURE STRIKES
The liberation of Avdievka, first of all, creates opportunities for the complete liberation of the territory of the DPR. However, the primary task, as before, is the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donetsk agglomeration. Even after Maryinka and Avdievka came under the control of Russian troops, another major settlement adjacent to Donetsk remains in the hands of the enemy - the city of Krasnogorovka, as well as the villages of Nevel'skoye and Pervomaiskoye.
This area is also constantly used for shelling of Donetsk, primarily the Kirov and Petrovsky districts, the most dangerous in the capital of the DPR. Therefore, the application of forces here logically follows from similar operations in the Maryinsky and Avdeevsky directions.
“As for Krasnogorovka, there is an interesting story here. To the south, our troops march from Mar'inka to Georgievka. If we manage to push the front further north, the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the city will be under threat of encirclement. And then only “stabilization measures, that is, withdrawal. This is what we should expect in the near future,” believes Alexander Mikhailovsky.
Another area where the Ukrainian Armed Forces clearly expect problems is Chasov Yar. Here, Ukrainian troops are in an extremely difficult situation after the end of the Bakhmut operation. The same can be said about the city of Seversk, located in the lowlands north of Soledar. Therefore, it would be more expedient for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to retreat from this area. The question is whether purely political considerations will prevent this step.
If you move north on the map, then the next area that begs for “stabilization measures” is a section of the territory of the DPR and the Kharkov region, bounded by the Oskol and Seversky Donets rivers, including the settlements of Krasny Liman, Svyatogorsk and part of the city of Kupyansk. For the Ukrainian army, the situation in this area is seriously complicated due to supply problems. Delivery of reinforcements and ammunition is possible across several bridges, which are constantly becoming targets for Russian air strikes.
The Ukrainians constantly organize temporary crossings, but they, in turn, can also be quickly disabled by air strikes. Therefore, a simultaneous strike on all communications can quickly deprive the Ukrainian Armed Forces group of communications with the “mainland”, and then, in fact, either cross the river or hold the defense without the support of the main forces.
On the front section south of Donetsk and further to the Dnieper, there are no similar prerequisites for the strategic retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, Russian troops are developing tactical successes in two directions at once: in the Ugledar area and to the west near the village of Rabotino.
In the first case, we are talking about the need to knock out the enemy from a well-fortified area and the adjacent coal mines, which, moreover, are located on a hill, which makes it possible to adjust artillery fire over a wide area.
In the Rabotino area the situation is extremely unfavorable for the enemy.
We are talking about a small “intrusion” into the defense of Russian troops, that is, the formations of the Ukrainian army are de facto semi-encircled. This only “success” of the summer counter-offensive is now turning into a suitcase without a handle, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces will eventually have to abandon.
However, further Ukrainian troops will most likely take up a defensive position along the entire front line. The question is where it will end up. Western experts are extremely pessimistic.
“They don't have an established second line of defense to fall back to. Much depends on whether Russian troops will be able to continue the offensive and when they will exhaust their momentum,” said Carnegie Endowment expert Michael Kofman in a commentary to the NYT.
However, in Kyiv they say that there is a defense line, and it is even ready to receive troops.
OUTLINES OF THE “ZALUZHNY LINE”
As the United States increasingly delayed the issue of allocating military assistance, people in Kiev increasingly began to say that somewhere in the rear of the Ukrainian troops a strategic “defense line” was being prepared, which had already been nicknamed the “Zaluzhny Line” - after the name of the departed commander-in-chief APU.
Later, plans and preliminary outlines of the planned defense line appeared on the Internet. If we take them on faith, we can assume that Kyiv does not expect an offensive by Russian troops in the Zaporozhye or Kharkov direction in the foreseeable future.
At the same time, two defense centers are being built in the Donbass, around which several fortification lines are being built - Slavyansk in the north of the DPR and Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) on the border with the Dnepropetrovsk region.
Accordingly, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will try to strengthen the defense line on the approaches to these cities. In the south - along the Volchya River, to the north - on the approaches to the Slavic agglomeration. As of 2014, hundreds of thousands of people lived in Slavyansk - Kramatorsk - Druzhkovka - Konstantinovka; in fact, we are talking about several settlements and industrial zones at once, flowing into one another with short intervals. Therefore, an offensive in this sector will be difficult.
However, this is where the advantages of the Armed Forces of Ukraine end. Firstly, Ukrainian fortifications are subject to criticism even from sources absolutely loyal to Kyiv. In a number of areas, the military limited itself to stringing barbed wire without trenches or minefields.
However, this is not the biggest problem.
“Any defensive line is first of all people, secondly maneuvering artillery and only then fortifications. Simply dug lines of trenches and pillboxes are dismantled by artillery and stormed. If they still manage to catch someone with the infantry, then the shells are running out. If there are shells, they can go into defense for a long time; if not, this line will collapse,” sums up Mikhailovsky.
And it seems that the West is well aware of the problems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Czech President Petr Pavel announced his readiness to urgently provide Ukraine with about 800 thousand artillery shells of 155 and 122 mm caliber. Germany, Denmark and a number of other European countries announced their desire to further strengthen Ukrainian artillery.
Therefore, the final answer to the question of how and where the front line will ultimately stand depends on whether Kyiv can resolve the looming operational crisis. If not, then by summer no defensive line will be able to stop the Russian offensive.