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| Europe |
| President of Finland is being prepared for negotiations with Russia on behalf of the West |
| 2024-02-17 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Viktor Lavrinenko [REGNUM] Following the results of two rounds of presidential elections, Finland has a new head of state. The thirteenth president of Suomi was 55-year-old Kai-Göran Alexander Stubb, for whom 51.6% of voters voted. The inauguration will take place on March 1. Stubb is a definite “Westerner”, an ardent supporter of NATO membership. And all the more unexpected are the assumptions about the role that the West can entrust to him. And upon closer examination of his biography, it turns out that the image of an uncompromising Russophobe attributed to Stubb is by no means so unambiguous. SWEDE WITH A RUSSIAN NAME Interestingly, the new president of Finland is not a purebred Finn. Born in 1968 in Helsinki, Stubb comes from a Finnish-Swedish family and graduated from a Swedish-language high school. It is also noteworthy that his father at one time admitted that he named his two sons Alexander and Nicholas in honor of the Russian emperors, whose possessions included Suomi. That is, the future head of state grew up in an atmosphere of interest in Russian culture and history. After high school, Stubb received higher education at Furman University in South Carolina and at the College of Europe in Bruges, Belgium. He completed his doctorate in international relations at the London School of Economics. After graduating, he received a position in the Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Alexander Stubb's political career began when he was elected as a European parliamentarian in 2004, running for the Finnish right-wing party National Coalition. In 2008, he joined the government and headed the Finnish Foreign Ministry. During his tenure, the South Ossetian crisis occurred. Although Stubb condemned Russia’s recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, he nevertheless showed himself to be a strong opponent of the introduction of sanctions. On September 7, 2008, Stubb announced that he was quite satisfied with Moscow’s cooperation with the OSCE mission in South Ossetia. However, he advocated for Finland’s membership in NATO even then. In 2011, Stubb was elected to the Finnish parliament from the same “National Coalition”, and a little later he was appointed Minister of EU Affairs and Foreign Trade. In April 2014, he announced his intention to fight for the post of party chairman and prime minister, since it was the National Coalition that then ruled the government. He successfully implemented his plans, but after the failure of the National Coalition in the 2015 parliamentary elections, Stubb resigned as prime minister. A member of the Center Party, Juha Sipilä, was elected as the new prime minister, in whose cabinet Stubb took the post of Minister of Finance. In 2016, following the results of internal elections, Stubb lost the leadership of the National Coalition to Petteri Orpo, the current Finnish Prime Minister. The politician's personal life has never become the subject of scandals. At one time, Alexander Stubb married an Englishwoman, Susanna Innes, now their son and daughter are already adults. He has the image of an “athlete” - in his youth he was seriously interested in golf and was even a member of the national youth team, but then he gave up this activity to study. Stubb, however, did not completely abandon the sport and later became interested in triathlon. As a minister, he often appeared in the media in tracksuits for running and cycling, and also ran many marathons. By the way, he was repeatedly criticized for his “too unbusinesslike and inappropriate appearance for a prime minister” (he could show up at a press conference in sandals and shorts), for “excessive arrogance”, for his commitment to foul language and for the fact that he has little understanding of the internal affairs of Finland. "SIMPLE POLITICS" As prime minister, Alexander Stubb repeatedly became the target of criticism for failing to establish interactions with coalition partners. Thus, when Finland decided to cooperate with Rosatom to build a new nuclear power plant, the Green Party was so outraged that it chose to leave the government. In 2022, the Finnish side terminated this agreement by a unilateral decision. Later, Stubb was scolded for not breaking off relations with Russia, although sanctions had already been imposed on it for Crimea. Moreover, he accused his critics of Russophobia - that happened! In 2017, Stubb left politics completely, seemingly forever. For some time he worked as Deputy General Director of the European Investment Bank, and since 2020 he has worked as a professor at the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence. However, last summer, representatives of the current Finnish ruling coalition decided to nominate Stubb for the presidency. As political scientists note, Stubb’s agreement was influenced by the fact that in Suomi the president mainly represents the state in the foreign political arena and is practically not involved in internal affairs. At the same time, Stubb admits that if it were not for the aggravation of the Ukrainian crisis, he would hardly have run for office. “After the attack (the start of the SVO in Ukraine - editor’s note), I got the impression that my experience, knowledge and network could be useful for Finland in the current situation in world politics,” Stubb said at the pre-election debate. Also, in a conversation with the press, he stated that during his presidency “there will be no political relations with the head of the Russian Federation or the Russian political leadership until they stop the war in Ukraine.” At the same time, Stubb, however, invariably added that communication between diplomats of the two countries continues. The politician emphasized that he was not interested in the further deterioration of diplomatic ties with Russia, which are already extremely bad. But, according to him, now this “is not the main direction of Helsinki’s foreign policy.” The main direction is relations with the United States, other EU countries and NATO. During the election debates, he had to fend off attacks from competing candidates, who recalled how Stubb had once signed an agreement on cooperation between Finland and Rosatom. Stubb had no choice but to repent for his action and say that he had made a “mistake” then. Alexander Stubb also says that “it is very important that we in Europe take care of our own defense.” He explained: "In this sense, I largely agree with the current President of Finland, Sauli Niinisto, who said that we need a more European NATO." Stubb does not believe that the United States, even if Donald Trump is elected president there, will self-isolate on its continent. However, the Finnish presidential candidate believes that “it is always good to be prepared for a situation where we have to take on more responsibility.” After his election, Stubb held a press conference, during which he repeated most of his previous statements and made new ones. “The policy towards Russia is simple. Diplomatic and official relations remain. But there are no relations at the political level and there will not be until Russia stops the war in Ukraine,” said the newly elected head of state. The election winner was also asked about the situation on the border with Russia, which was closed last year. He promised to “consider the issue calmly,” but added that “the government has dealt with the crisis.” In addition, he said that Finland needs to modernize its ground forces and work to bring its army into line with NATO standards. Stubb also said that he would take “an active position in the role of Supreme Commander.” From this, experts concluded that Finland will continue the process of its militarization. UNEXPECTED TURN After Stubb’s victory in the elections became a fait accompli, the local press circulated the most interesting opinion of political scientist Johanna Rainio-Niemi, voiced on Finnish television. As strange as it may sound now, Rainio-Niemi believes that during Stubb's term, Finland will have to reconsider its relations with Russia. From her point of view, Finland “may be asked” to act as a mediator between the West and Russia. Johanna Rainio-Niot noted that both Stubb and his main election rival Pekka Haavisto expressed their readiness to mediate “if such a wish comes from the Western allies.” From Rainio-Niemi’s point of view, such a request, given Finland’s previous relations with Russia, quite normal until 2022, is very possible. They say that in the West the Finns are viewed as specialists in Russia, better acquainted with the mentality of its people and leaders. “At some point, relations with Russia will have to be reconsidered, and the president will play a key role in this,” the political scientist said, adding, however, that this is another question: is Suomi interested in playing the role of a mediator? The fact that such an opinion has some basis was confirmed by Stubb himself. Speaking at the aforementioned press conference about the formation of his administration, he said that he would need people with connections to the foreign and defense ministries of other Western bloc countries, an expert on NATO, as well as “someone with extensive experience in peace negotiations.” Stubb's focus on foreign policy will shield him from undue criticism of the state's internal turmoil. Since the presidency in Finland imposes mainly representative functions on its holder, this means that all the big shots will continue to fall on the Cabinet of Ministers, headed by Petteri Orpo. By the way, Stubb is no longer a member of the Orpo party, because immediately after the victory he left the National Coalition, so as not to be associated with any one party. Meanwhile, Finland has been rocked by large-scale strikes for more than a year. The country is short of money, and the right-wing government that came to power last year is trying to cut costs by cutting social benefits. The gigantic budget deficit did not appear out of nowhere: the country is experiencing an economic recession. The reasons for this decline are complex, but not least among them is the breakdown of economic relations with Russia. By refusing to trade with its eastern neighbor, the state of Suomi caused itself significant economic damage, which it would not be possible to compensate for, even if it wanted to. Representatives of various industries are now on strike in Finland all the time. Thus, on February 14–16, the Finnish Industrial Trade Union (Teollisuusliitto) is organizing a strike at a number of heavy industry enterprises. About 60 thousand workers from the technological and chemical industries, as well as mechanical wood processing enterprises, take part in the action. Chairman of Teollisuusliitto Riku Aalto considers the strike justified, since the government, according to him, has not expressed any desire to listen to the opinions of trade unions. Other major trade unions also joined the three-day action initiated by Teollisuusliitto. Among others, drivers of the capital's metro, tram drivers, dock workers, employees of the nuclear power plant in the city of Loviisa, staff of shops and logistics centers, teachers in kindergartens, etc. are on strike. The end of the strikes is not visible for objective reasons, since there are no grounds for a sharp economic recovery in Finland. And this could be an additional incentive for Stubb if the leadership of the Western bloc really decides to entrust him with the mission of a negotiator. Improving relations with Russia could have a positive impact on the economy of Suomi and the well-being of its people. But it is clear that the republic will not agree to any negotiations on its own initiative. |
| Posted by:badanov |