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Economy
We are in a depression and do not even know it
2024-02-05
[American Thinker] We are in a depression and do not even know it.

In a recent Harvard Business Review (HBR) article, "What Causes Inflation," Walter Frick describes some of the economic forces that often create sustained inflation.

It can happen when a critical supply becomes suddenly scarce, such as the Arab oil embargo of 1973. Prices advanced, limits were placed on the amount of gas you could purchase, and lines of cars formed around all gas stations. We were beset with inflation exceeding 18% at times, and it took a decade for inflation to subside.

It can happen when economic expectations do not meet reality or when economic shock occurs. The 2007—2010 Great Recession is a prime example. The trading of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) became extremely popular on Wall Street during the late 1990s and early 2000s. These securities were originally rated AAA by the bond rating agencies, and their popularity increased. Gradually, however, to earn higher yields, a portion of the MBS packages would contain a few subprime home loans. This practice grew until soon Wall Street had grievous amounts of MBS, not rated, on their books and with clients. A small and intelligent group of individuals spotted this financial weakness and "shorted" the MBS market. This immediately created the largest financial crisis ever on Wall Street. Because the investment banks were "too big to fail," it took monumental giveaways from Uncle Sam — some say $12 trillion over a decade — to put the banking system back on its feet.

It can happen when a sudden increase in the supply of money occurs. Did anyone give thought to what might happen when Uncle Sam printed and dumped $6 trillion into the economy during COVID? With a $15-trillion money stock before printing COVID checks, this $6 trillion represented a 40% increase in the total money supply. It peaked at $21.7 trillion during July 2022, the highest ever, before beginning a slight decline to $20.9 trillion at the end of this past December.
Posted by:Besoeker

#9  Boats will be very valuable if the SHTF. You get far enough offshore and you can fuggetaboutit.
Posted by: Abu Laptop (same as Abu Uluque but on a different computer.)   2024-02-05 16:37  

#8  MikeK, maybe the sales of boat trailers etc. is up because inflation is encouraging people to move their liquid assets into things with real underlying value
Posted by: Glenmore    2024-02-05 14:52  

#7  I second Skid's opinion in #2.
Posted by: Bobby   2024-02-05 14:05  

#6  The last paragraph of this piece is using the M2 figures for the money supply. The St L Federal Reserve is the source.

The M1 money supply has contracted a bit faster.

It certainly has a long way yet to go.

However, what the piece doesn't mention is that a yuuge increase in the money supply occurred in 2020 during the shut down of much of the economy due to the COVID restrictions. There was about 1 $12T increase in M2 between March and August 2020.
Posted by: lord garth   2024-02-05 11:02  

#5  
#4 Buyers believing in the global warming ice melt?
Posted by: Skidmark 2024-02-05 09:33


Skid,

You know...I hadn't thought of that. ;)

Mike
Posted by: MikeKozlowski   2024-02-05 10:16  

#4  Buyers believing in the global warming ice melt?
Posted by: Skidmark   2024-02-05 09:33  

#3  ...Respectfully, I disagree, and let me explain why.

One of our customers is a very well known (regionally) maker of boat trailers and pontoon boats. I have explained and shown to our leadership that these folks are our 'canary in the coal mine' - if people are still buying boat trailers (and by extension, boats) then the economy is still moving along. When the boat trailers slow down - or worse, stop - then you can know things are getting tough.

So far we're still knocking out boat trailers at a pretty good clip.

Mike
Posted by: MikeKozlowski   2024-02-05 09:23  

#2  Yeah, Ah'm pretty fucking depressed.
Posted by: Skidmark   2024-02-05 08:29  

#1  It's Russia's Putin and the replacement people damn it! They've caused this depression, not Washington.

(sarc off)
Posted by: Besoeker   2024-02-05 02:49  

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