by Sergey Adamov
[REGNUM] The Russian armed forces went on the offensive throughout the Donetsk direction, gradually pushing through the enemy’s defenses.
At the turn of December - January, a temporary calm reigned at the front, caused by cold weather and the need to regroup troops. But starting on January 10, the front “moved” again.
After the cold weather retreated, Russian troops began to increase the intensity of the offensive on a number of sectors of the Donetsk front.
The fighting continues simultaneously in the directions to Avdeevka, to the south - to Pervomaiskoye, Nevelskoye and Krasnogorovka and further - in the Marinka area, DPR People's Council deputy Yuri Leonov told IA Regnum, based on information from participants in the hostilities.
And although the offensive in some places is of a positional nature, the Ukrainian Armed Forces gradually have to give up positions, sometimes snapping back with local counterattacks. Despite enemy resistance, Russian troops have already achieved significant success.
During the fighting, the village of Veseloye was liberated, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported.
There are 11 villages with this name on the territory of the DPR (including Vesyoloye between Donetsk and Peski), but, based on the context, we are talking about the village of Vesyoloye north of Soledar, in the area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces-held city of Seversk.
ADVANCEMENT IN THE AVDEEVSKY DIRECTION
One of the most tense sections of the front was the area north and northeast of the Avdeevsky coke and chemical plant.
Specifically, the settlements of Stepovoye and Berdychi.
Russian troops have managed to advance in this sector in recent weeks, reports an informed source from the Regnum news agency in the ranks of the 1st Army Corps of the Russian Armed Forces. But, he added, the enemy is not abandoning attempts to counterattack.
In the area north of Avdeevka, the 47th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces operates, which actively uses American-made armored vehicles.
“Some time ago, a number of citizens placed Stepovoye under our control. But I can say that the enemy does not want to surrender the village, clashes continue there, and quite severe ones,” a source told IA Regnum. “ We can retreat somewhere, they will come in somewhere.” However, there is partial success in this area, without details. We are moving forward, albeit slowly."
Russian troops managed to cross the railway embankment in the area of the 437th km platform.
To the north, Russian troops were able to significantly advance between Stepov and Ocheretino, thereby creating a perimeter for the future encirclement of the enemy in Avdeevka.
“EVERYTHING POSSIBLE WORKS”
The successes of the Russian troops are also recognized by Ukrainian sources. According to their information, on January 17 alone, more than 600 “arrivals” of artillery and aircraft shells occurred at the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Russian Aerospace Forces are also destroying enemy positions in Avdeevka itself and the Avdeevka plant area.
Video recordings are published in open sources showing the dropping of FAB-250 aerial bombs, equipped with a controlled planning and correction module, at the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Heavy weapons are used to knock out powerful enemy fortifications and save the lives of soldiers fighting in the front ranks.
“Everything that can be done works. Aviation and cannon artillery are working, and assaults are taking place regularly. So far, no major breakthroughs. This is due to the fact that the task is to preserve battle formations as much as possible. But we can say that somewhere between 85–90% of all offensive actions come from our side,” notes Donetsk deputy Yuriy Leonov.
And such tactics are completely justified.
Among the latest successes of the troops operating in the Donetsk direction is the capture of the Musorka fortified area in the southeast of Avdeevka. The position was left virtually without a fight. There are reports that Ukrainian troops have retreated towards the north.
With the establishment of control over the settlements of Stepovoe and Berdychi, the situation for the Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka will become even more difficult. De facto, the city will be covered from the north, and the only road along which Ukrainian forces are still supplied will come under the fire control of Russian troops simultaneously from the south and the north. The garrison will be faced with a difficult choice: retreat or die surrounded.
“THE HALF-DEAD AIRMOBILE BRIGADE IS WITHDRAWING WITHOUT A FIGHT”
Simultaneously with the fighting in the Avdiivka direction, military operations continue along the entire Donetsk sector of the front. The key task for Russian troops is to slowly push the enemy out of his long-occupied positions.
As mentioned above, during the fighting northeast of Donetsk, Russian troops managed to push back the enemy in the Pervomaiskoye-Nevelskoye area, from where the Ukrainian Armed Forces regularly shell the DPR capital.
East of Nevelskoye, the enemy was knocked out from a number of fortified points, which is confirmed by combat footage published online.
South-west of Nevelskoye, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were also forced to abandon a number of positions and retreat. We can say that the enemy’s fortified area in the village is simultaneously covered from two sides.
The assault units are also developing strategic success in the Marinka area, while simultaneously moving east towards Georgievka and south towards Novomikhailovka. Here, Russian troops also managed to move forward to the south and north of the settlement, taking it into a semicircle.
“In the Marinka area, the half-dead 79th airmobile brigade continues to operate and is rolling back. Morale there is weak; many formations have not been rotated for a very long time. In particular, in the Novomikhailovka area they surrendered some positions and often retreated without a fight. We are flowing around the populated area, we will squeeze them out further,” reports the Regnum news agency source.
WHAT'S ON THE LIST OF POSSIBLE LOSSES?
For the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the situation is becoming more and more undesirable every day. And the headquarters seem to understand this well. Commenting on the situation in Avdiivka, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny said that in the future the city could be abandoned by Ukrainian troops. Among the reasons for the failures of the Ukrainian troops, Zaluzhny named the superiority of the Russian Armed Forces and the lack of military assistance from the West.
According to the commander-in-chief, Avdiivka could be abandoned by the Ukrainian Armed Forces within two to three months, but this could happen much earlier.
Ukrainian sources explain the retreat along the entire front by the need to retreat to new fortified lines, to hold which reserves are being formed in the rear. However, it is possible that in the foreseeable future the enemy may try to counterattack.
Russian paratroopers stormed the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Artyomovsk
“They have the strength to counterattack, some of them are not fools there either, they will try to change something. They are trying and will try to create pressure on the flanks. There are attempts to exert pressure on the flanks; they may try to cut off the advancing forces. Therefore, the offensive is proceeding cautiously,” adds Yuri Leonov.
Another option for the development of events is called in the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - a transition to deep defense in all directions. This statement was made by the commander of the ground forces, Alexander Syrsky.
However, in order to build new lines of defense, Ukrainian troops will need to retreat in a number of directions.
Among the possible “losses” of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are the Avdeevka region, the settlements of Krasnogorovka, Pervomaiskoye, Praskovievka and Ugledar. That is, the front line can roll back tens of kilometers in order to try to organize new defensive lines similar to those that were created around Donetsk.
However, it is far from certain that Russian troops will allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to do this.