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| South Caucasus in 2023: Russia has regained its strategic initiative |
| 2024-01-03 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Kamran Hasanov [REGNUM] The past year turned out to be sensational for the South Caucasus. It would seem that after the 44-day Karabakh war in 2020 there was nothing to surprise. Until September, few people believed that after the deployment of Russian peacekeepers to Karabakh, the status quo could change. However, Ilham Aliyev managed to surprise not only his neighbors, but the whole world. AZERBAIJAN: PLUS KARABAKH, MINUS MULTI-VECTOR The Azerbaijani leader finally decided to send troops into Karabakh and took full control of it. Not only Baku, but also Yerevan surprised with its behavior. Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan did not enter into an armed conflict. Moreover, the authorities of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Republic announced self-liquidation. There are very few examples in modern history of a country that lost its territory regaining it 30 years later. The only one that comes to mind is Sinai, taken by Israel from Egypt after the Six-Day War and returned in 1979 in exchange for Egyptian recognition of the Jewish state. Part of Baku's success can be attributed to the determination of its leader, but geopolitical alignments played a significant role in it. Nikol Pashinyan’s administration has done everything to alienate Russia as far as possible. The loudest anti-Russian steps of Yerevan took place precisely this year. The Prime Minister's wife Anna Hakobyan's trip to Kiev with promises to provide humanitarian assistance. Signing of the Rome Statute and joining the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin. And finally, Armenian-American military exercises. Such steps by a CSTO ally forced the Russian Foreign Ministry to hand over a note of protest to the Armenian ambassador for the first time in the history of relations. The sequence of the two events listed above should not cause surprise - first a note of protest, then Azerbaijan’s operation in Karabakh. Victory was not easy for Aliyev. If previously Azerbaijan traditionally boasted of the multi-vector nature of its foreign policy, it has lost one vector. The United States, through its Deputy Secretary of State James O'Brien, made it clear that Washington is ending high-level contacts with Azerbaijan and suspending aid until it sees progress in negotiations with Armenia. After Aliyev’s harsh reaction, the State Department backed down and sent that same O’Brien to Baku to normalize relations. But the Azerbaijani side still holds a grudge against America and is not going to hold peace negotiations with their Armenian colleagues in Washington. THE EU REMAINS ON THE SIDELINES Some European countries are equally, or perhaps more, unhappy about geopolitical changes in the South Caucasus. Especially France. During the presidential race, a number of French politicians, such as Valérie Pecres, visited both Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. In 2023, the mayor of Paris wanted to visit Karabakh at the head of a humanitarian aid convoy, but could not, since Azerbaijan had already taken control of the Lachin road. France and Azerbaijan exchanged formal accusations, and the process culminated in the declaration of two employees of the French embassy in Baku as persona non grata. The USA and France are no longer mediators for Aliyev. This is a blow to the prestige and influence of the entire NATO and partly the European Union in the region. Since 2021, the European Union has seized the initiative in the Karabakh issue from Russia, Aliyev and Pashinyan periodically met in Brussels and discussed peace terms. But the deepening crisis in Azerbaijani-French relations and its emergence in Azerbaijani-American relations creates a window of opportunity for Moscow. The “3+3” platform promoted by Russia has reached a new level. In November, a meeting was held with the participation of the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia. At the end of the year, Putin gathered the leaders of the CIS countries in St. Petersburg and created the opportunity for a one-on-one meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan. Unlike the United States and the EU, which are trying to conduct negotiations exclusively on Euro-Atlantic platforms, Moscow advocates a regional solution to regional problems. This approach pleases Iran, which fears isolation, and suits anti-Western Turkey and Azerbaijan, which is becoming one. Pashinyan feels more comfortable in Brussels and Paris, but cannot negotiate with himself. GEORGIA KEEPS TO ITSELF Meetings in the 3+3 format are still ignored by Georgia, although it has normal relations with all other participants. The problem rests on formalities - the existence of territorial claims to South Ossetia and Abkhazia. At the same time, Tbilisi manages to sail between Scylla and Charybdis. The government of Irakli Garibashvili took a bold step by not joining the anti-Russian sanctions. Georgia resumed flights with Russia; in response, Russia canceled visas for Georgian citizens. From this point of view, it can be stated that Russian positions in Georgia have strengthened. At the same time, Tbilisi does not abandon its course towards European integration, even receiving slaps in the face from its Western partners. At every opportunity, as with the adoption of the law on foreign agents in March, demonstrations of thousands take to the streets of Tbilisi. The EU constantly reminds Garibashvili about human rights and the release of ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili. Georgian authorities are demanding clarification about US Agency for International Development (USAID) funding of unrest in the country, but it is extremely difficult to resist pressure from the US, NATO and the EU. Since you yourself have hooked yourself on the European bait, you have to reckon with the demands of Brussels. Last year, Tbilisi was upset that Georgia was not given EU candidate status. This year, Brussels corrected itself and granted the desired status. But the price is still the same - during a visit to the Georgian capital, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, explained that the EU expects anti-Russian steps from Georgia, condemnation of the “war in Ukraine” and joining the sanctions. RUSSIA IS STRENGTHENING ITS POSITION Is it possible to observe the formation of some kind of sustainable trend, taking into account all the above events in the South Caucasus? On the one hand, no. The struggle for the region has been and continues to be, and there are no winners yet. The loser of the Second Karabakh War, squeezed out by Russia and Turkey, managed to take revenge, strengthening itself in Armenia and dragging the blanket of Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations to Brussels. Even if Washington and Paris are dissatisfied with something, neither Aliyev, nor even more so Pashinyan, refused to participate in European platforms. Aliyev recently opened an interconnector from Bulgaria to Serbia, through which Azerbaijani gas will flow. European authorities welcome the diversification of gas supplies and the reduction of Russia's role in providing Europe with energy resources. Moscow increased its chances of mediation by holding the first meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan after the September conflict. But to maintain this advantage, you need to increase your efforts. As for Georgia, here the initiative also remained with Russia. The European Union gave candidate status to Tbilisi not for progress in reforms, but despite its pragmatic course towards Moscow. A further tightening of Brussels’ positions over Ukraine and sanctions could lead to the loss of EU-oriented Georgia. At the same time, the status of a candidate country may turn out to be a trap for Garibashvili. And Brussels will have more political and legal grounds to shake the authorities and strengthen the opposition. In the future, extra-regional processes will continue to influence the South Caucasus. The main events, as before, are unfolding in Ukraine. And here the initiative belongs to Russia. While the US and EU were thinking about how to help Israel clear out the Augean stables in Gaza and where to find money for financing and ammunition for Kyiv, Russia confidently went on the offensive and took Mar,inka. If American President Joe Biden is greeted in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries with hidden hatred, then Putin is greeted with fireworks and parades. In a word, the stronger Russia is on other fronts, the easier it will be for it to push its agenda in the South Caucasus. |
| Posted by:badanov |