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| 'You just need to shoot.' How Russia will defend itself against ATACMS missiles |
| 2023-10-19 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Artemy Sharapov [REGNUM] The Ukrainian Armed Forces used American MGM-140 ATACMS tactical missiles for the first time. According to media reports, on the night of October 16-17, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched at least five missiles at Russian airfields in the Zaporozhye and Luhansk regions. The blog Fighterbomber, which specializes in covering the work of Russian aerospace forces and has access to military pilots, was the first to report the use of ATACMS missiles by Ukraine. He also called the attack one of the most serious blows to the Russian Aerospace Forces during the entire special military operation. Later, information about the use of missiles began to be confirmed by photographs from the site of the attack. Photos of M74 cluster submunitions, which are used as a destructive element on ATACMS missiles, have appeared on the Internet. Ammunition is dispersed in the air over a large area, exploding upon impact with a target. Some of them did not work and were discovered by the Russian military. Information about the attack was confirmed by the head of the Zaporozhye public movement “We are together with Russia” Vladimir Rogov . He also added that the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a combined attack on the airfield in Berdyansk with ATACMS and GLSDB missiles. Both types of missiles are intended to be launched by HIMARS, MARS and M270 launchers, which are used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces starting in the spring of 2022. Previously, Kyiv repeatedly turned to the United States with requests for missile supplies, but was regularly refused. According to the New York Times, the request for the supply of missiles was granted just before the attack on Russian airfields. A number of missiles were secretly delivered to Ukrainian territory in mid-October. The publication later reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces received a total of 20 ATACMS missiles. The delivery of these missiles to Ukraine was confirmed by National Security Council spokeswoman Adrian Watson. According to her, we are talking about a modification with a shortened range of 165 km. Based on the White House statement and photos from the field, we can conclude that the Ukrainian Armed Forces received a batch of ATACMS Block I (MGM-140A) missiles with the M39 Block cluster warhead, military expert Maxim Tumbartsev noted in a conversation with Regnum news agency . According to the specialist, the modification is inferior in range to other models, but at the same time carries significantly more M74 submunitions: 950 instead of 275. According to data from a rocket engine found by residents of the Zaporozhye region, the products were produced in 1995, the last year this model was produced. Probably, in the USA the missiles would have been decommissioned, but a decision was made to transfer them to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It can be assumed that Kyiv and its American advisers primarily plan to use missiles to destroy lightly armored targets or large areas of terrain without significant engineering structures. The dispersion of cluster munitions makes it possible to cause damage, in particular to helicopters or airplanes at airfields that are not equipped with hangars and other protective structures. “What cluster missiles conveyed, on the one hand, is a minus for us, since they can strike over a large area. On the other hand, missiles are unsuitable for attacks on, for example, bridges or some similar structures. So, in terms of striking infrastructure facilities, the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not changed ,” notes Maxim Tumbartsev. The relatively small number of missiles transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces does not allow them to qualitatively change the situation, so Kyiv should not expect a turning point in the hostilities. However, the Ukrainian command will make the most of the opportunities that have arisen. Previously, Ukrainian troops actively used Soviet-made Tochka-U missile systems, including modifications with a cluster warhead. However, even with hundreds of missiles in reserve, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were unable to significantly influence the balance of power. “The damaging elements will not damage any armored vehicles or conditional headquarters in protected premises. The first thing to be wary of is units with lightly armored or unarmored equipment - these are logistics equipment (MTO), air defense units (if they are assembled in one place) and so on, since they will be able to deliver a certain number of strikes,” believes expert. It is noteworthy that the Pentagon deliberately sent to the Ukrainian Armed Forces an older modification of the missiles, which is not equipped with GPS guidance systems. Julian Röpke, a military observer for the German newspaper Bild, drew attention to this. The decision of the American military was influenced by the successes of Russian electronic warfare (EW) systems, which learned to jam the guidance of guided weapons previously transferred to the Ukrainian army. “There is, of course, one reason: the successful jamming of most weapons with a GPS guidance system by Russian electronic warfare systems,” noted Repke. Official sources in the Russian Ministry of Defense did not comment on the use of ATACMS missiles by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to some reports, as a result of the attack, a number of aircraft and more could have been seriously damaged. However, the main question is whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to consolidate its success or whether this is a one-time action. The Pentagon has repeatedly stated that there are no stocks of ATACMS missiles. The missiles produced are needed by the US Army to carry out its own missions, while stocks of obsolete models are very limited, since some of the missiles have expired and are no longer usable. Commenting on the possibility of additional supplies of missiles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh avoided a direct answer, saying that she would not disclose the contents of future military assistance packages. According to experts, the United States will be able to provide Ukraine with an additional number of ATACMS missiles, ranging from 10 to 50 units, depending on the modification and delivery time. Therefore, recent attacks on military airfields can be considered “targeting”. However, subsequent attacks may be much less effective, as Russian air defense and missile defense forces can learn from the experience. “Of course, there is always an effect of surprise. Moreover, this applies to both the use of new weapons and new directions for attack. However, both the crews of air defense systems and the operators of radar stations gain experience working with new targets, so the effectiveness of the application is gradually decreasing. Ground forces also gain experience, disperse equipment, camouflage themselves, and so on. Therefore, Kiev should not bet on the success of ATACMS in the long term ,” notes Maxim Tumbartsev. Previously, the Ukrainian Armed Forces used the effect of surprise after the West supplied new types of weapons: HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, Storm Shadow cruise missiles and others. Each of the new products had some success, but Russian troops invariably found effective ways to counter it. Russian air defense systems will soon learn to deal with ATACMS, said the ex-chief of the anti-aircraft missile forces of the Special Forces Command, reserve colonel Sergei Khatylev in a commentary to MK. The expert noted that almost any of the air defense systems available to the Russian Armed Forces is capable of destroying American missiles and they only need to “shoot” at new targets. Although experts agree that the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ new and old missiles are not “miracle weapons” capable of changing the course of hostilities, an attack on airfields again requires a change of strategy from the Russian troops. To prevent aviation losses, new field airfields must be reliably protected from air threats. Either they will have to be moved away from the contact line, or reliable shelters will have to be created for aircraft. And the effectiveness of new attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which most likely will not be long in coming, will primarily depend on whether the appropriate conclusions are drawn. |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #3 I'm with yesterday's thread now. When did we give up superiority in naming weapons systems? This sounds like something WH20K Orks. |
| Posted by: swksvolFF 2023-10-19 12:43 |
| #2 They seem to have cut the number of available KA-52 gunships roughly in half. The rest will need to be moved maybe 100km further back, which is significant in helicopters. It also means that russian towed artillery will need to stage further from the front, which could be a major 'goodie' on the Uke sappers trying to clear minefields. The thing about ATACMS is it's a low arc ballistic; When launch is detected and path plotted, you've got maybe 6-7 minutes warning to clear out. |
| Posted by: ed in texas 2023-10-19 09:45 |
| #1 Anybody made the list of western wunderwaffe(s) supposed to win the war for Ukraine? |
| Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2023-10-19 02:34 |