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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Under the sign of an inverted 'A'. A new military conflict is brewing in Transcaucasia |
| 2023-09-09 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Sergey Adamov [REGNUM] Armenia and Azerbaijan are again on the brink of war. The armed forces of Azerbaijan are actively massing armored vehicles and artillery to the border with Armenia. Observers note that the equipment is marked with quick identification marks in the form of an inverted letter “A” (∀), which may indicate preparation for a full-scale military operation. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan state that Armenian troops are violating the terms of the ceasefire agreement. In turn, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan stated that Azerbaijan is preparing new military provocations against Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia - these statements are actively broadcast by Western media, for example the French channel France 24. Numerous videos are published on the Internet indicating the concentration of Azerbaijani troops on several sections of the border at once: in the area of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, as well as near the borders of the Syunik region in southern Armenia. Let us explain - the access of Azerbaijani troops to the Armenian border in this area became possible as a result of the Second Karabakh War. Then, let us remind you, NKR lost the so-called security belt - the areas around Nagorno-Karabakh occupied by Armenian forces, which also covered the Armenian border. A number of sources claim that it is here, near the borders of Syunik, that a new military operation of the Azerbaijani army may begin with the aim of occupying the strategically important area of the Syunik, or Zangezur corridor. In this region, a narrow 40 km stretch of Armenian territory separates most of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan enclave (which shares a border with Turkey). CORRIDOR OF DISCORD The Azerbaijani side insists on creating a land route between Azerbaijan and Turkey. This route was essentially mentioned in Moscow’s November 10, 2020 ceasefire statement in Nagorno-Karabakh. The ninth point of the agreement states: Armenia guarantees the safety of transport communications between the western regions of Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan with subsequent access to Turkey. This is possible through Armenian territory itself along the Iranian border. But in reality, the Zangezur corridor remains on paper - there is a danger that Azerbaijan will begin to break through it by force. In the conditions of cooling relations between Yerevan and Moscow (and this is supported by the Armenian-American exercises announced for September and the recall of the permanent representative of Armenia to the CSTO), Armenia may be left alone in the confrontation with Azerbaijan and Turkey. But it seems that another regional power, Iran, which traditionally supports Armenia in the Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation, plans to take part in the confrontation over the Syunik corridor. Iranian television published a video calling for support for the territorial integrity of Armenia. The video contains footage from Iranian army missile exercises and hints at the possibility of providing military assistance to Armenia. Previously, Tehran has repeatedly stated that it will not allow a military invasion of Armenian territory. IRAN MAY DECIDE TO PREEMPTIVELY SEND IN TROOPS For Iran, the existence of the Syunik (Zangezur) corridor, controlled by Armenia, is strategically important, so Tehran will strive to prevent a military operation by Azerbaijan and Turkey, military expert and Iranist Yuri Lyamin told IA Regnum. “The Syunik corridor is important for Iran, as it connects the main part of Armenia with Iran,” the expert explained. “Moreover, trade routes to the ports of Georgia run through Armenia. Since Iran is under powerful sanctions pressure, the country's government is interested in the maximum variety of available transport corridors. If there is a threat of Azerbaijan’s seizure of the said Syunik region of Armenia, then Iran may well resort to a preventive deployment of troops.” Tehran also opposes the creation of a single Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance on its northern borders, which could directly threaten the country’s security. Northern Iran is home to a large number of ethnic Azerbaijanis , among whom separatist sentiments are strong . Therefore, Iran will strive to prevent the creation of a united Turkic front. Moreover, Azerbaijan will not be able to independently conduct military operations against Iran. However, there are a number of problems on the way to bring Iranian troops into the territory of Armenia. WILL PASHINYAN TURN TO THE AYATOLLAH? “Most likely, one entry of Iranian troops will be enough to stop potential hostilities in that area, since Azerbaijan is unlikely to want an open conflict with Iran over this,” Lyamin notes. Another thing is that the entry of Iranian troops will require an official appeal from the Armenian authorities. That is, an appeal from Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan or the de jure head of Armenia, President Vahagn Khachaturian , to the leadership of Iran: spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi . But whether it will happen in this case is still a big question, notes Lyamin. “Pashinyan is very actively trying to attract Western mediators, who are unlikely to accept Iranian intervention. So they will have to choose: Iranian help here and now or verbal guarantees from the West ,” the expert points out. In principle, Iran can also do without direct intervention in the conflict “on the ground” by using its missile and aviation arsenal, the orientalist argues. “I very much doubt that Azerbaijan will enter into an open military conflict with Iran for the sake of Syunik,” believes Lyamin. Firstly, this is, after all, the internationally recognized territory of Armenia, which in itself forces Azerbaijan to act more carefully, the expert explained. Secondly, Baku should be wary of the situation escalating into a large-scale conflict with Iran, since the Azerbaijani oil and gas infrastructure is very vulnerable to attacks from Iran. “Azerbaijan, of course, can also inflict painful injections with the help of existing missiles and UAVs, but Iran’s strike capabilities are simply incomparably greater,” the expert adds. ZANGEZUR BLITZKRIEG Azerbaijan can decide on a full-scale military operation in the Syunik corridor only under one condition, the expert believes. This condition is speed. If in a short period of time the region is occupied by Azerbaijani troops, Iran will be presented with a fait accompli and there will no longer be a harsh reaction from Tehran. It is possible that Ankara and Baku are preparing for precisely this scenario—a blitzkrieg—Lyamin does not exclude it. On the other hand, Lyamin notes, it is possible that the relocation of individual units to the border with Armenia by the Azerbaijani army is a show of force. The expert recalled that Azerbaijan more than once after the 2020 war resorted to forceful pressure on Armenia in order to persuade Yerevan to make concessions, including territorial ones. “Azerbaijan has a very significant military advantage over Armenia, and therefore it can choose different options ,” the orientalist noted. — That is, there may be a demonstration of force in the form of exercises, there may be a limited military operation in a specific area, and so on. Potentially, Azerbaijan could try to carry out a larger-scale short operation, testing the limits of a possible reaction from Russia and Iran. In preparation for the upcoming, larger intervention . " A DIRECT CLASH IS EXCLUDED, A PROXY WAR IS LIKELY Major regional powers - Turkey and Iran - have not yet demonstrated readiness for open war. On September 3, negotiations were held between Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdellahian and his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan. Both sides expressed their commitment to peace, but Iran once again made it clear that it will not allow the Syunik corridor to be captured. “We welcome negotiations between Yerevan and Baku and will not accept any geopolitical changes in the region and blocking of the existing transit route in the region,” Abdellahian said. In the coming years, a direct armed conflict between Turkey and Iran is unlikely, Lyamin believes. But at the same time, both countries can provide military assistance to their allies, so the threat of a proxy war still remains. “Iran and Turkey are not interested in a direct conflict with each other, since both sides already have enough problems there. In addition, they do not want to break off fairly close economic ties. But I would be careful not to think about five years in advance. There are too many different factors that can change during this time . ” In the short term, Azerbaijan may consider the possibility of conducting a local military operation, intending to occupy part of the territory of the unrecognized NKR or disputed areas on the border with Armenia, Lyamin emphasizes. If Armenia, Russia and Iran are unable to influence the situation, a larger war may be planned in the future, which will not leave major regional players aside. Related: Armenia: 2023-09-06 Ukrainian Perspective: Invasion of Ukraine: September 5th, 2023 Armenia: 2023-09-06 Nikol Pashinyan's strategic mistake. Four alternatives for Yerevan Armenia: 2023-09-04 Ukrainian Perspective: Invasion of Ukraine: September 3rd, 2023 |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #6 ^ *Bada Bing!* |
| Posted by: Frank G 2023-09-09 17:35 |
| #5 When I saw Transcaucasia, I was expecting to see a picture of Admiral Levine. |
| Posted by: Super Hose 2023-09-09 15:13 |
| #4 A knock-on effect of the Ukraine invasion. Russia was seen as the guarantor of Armenia. Russia is now weakened and fully occupied with its war. Azerbaijan gets frisky, Iran threatens to step in, as Russian proxy and/or 'cuz nothing says Muslim brotherhood like knifing your fellow believers. |
| Posted by: Nero 2023-09-09 15:00 |
| #3 Gracias |
| Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2023-09-09 13:42 |
| #2 A useful summary of the usual counterintuitive alliances, Grom. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2023-09-09 13:38 |
| #1 Armenia is supported by Russia and Iran. Russia because they're fellow Greek Orthodox. (and also because Russians love Armenian cognac). Iran supports Armenia against Azerbaijan because, despite being a predominantly Shia country, Azeris been know to say to Iran: "Sod off swampy! We don't need your Ayatollahs to tell us that women may wear, and - definitely not - when it's alright to f#ck a chicken!" Azerbaijan is supported by Israel & Turkey because it's hated by Iran. |
| Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2023-09-09 02:37 |