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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| The uprising of the Arab tribes that swept the northeast of Syria into the hands of Russia |
| 2023-09-06 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Alexey Cherkassky [REGNUM] Since mid-August, in northeastern Syria, in the zone of control of the Kurdish SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces - ed.) and the US-led international coalition, an internal crisis has been brewing, which has already developed into full-scale clashes. The reason is the arrest by the Kurds of the head of the "Military Council of Deir az-Zor" Al Habil on August 27. This was the trigger for breaking the delicate balance formed by the Americans in the territories of the self-proclaimed administration of northeastern Syria. The situation was immediately taken advantage of by other opponents of the SDF - Arab groups from the Turkish zone of occupation in northern Syria and in Idlib. They hit the outskirts of Manbij and some Kurdish posts along the important M4 highway, which crosses the north of the country from the Mediterranean Sea to the border with Iraq. At the time of this writing, the SDF had to retreat. In Deir az-Zor (the southern part of the territory controlled by the Kurds), the situation began to take shape for the SDF even worse. Groupings of local Arab tribes have already captured more than a dozen settlements and checkpoints and continue to advance. To an outside observer, the unfolding clashes might seem like a bolt from the blue, but this is not so. Firstly, this time bomb was planted by the Americans themselves when they began to try in their style to create an Arab-Kurdish federation as a counterbalance to the government of Damascus. Now they are calling in every possible way not to exaggerate the inter-ethnic nature of the confrontation, but, as they say, the facts are there, and these statements only make the opposite stronger. Representatives of local tribes rebelled against the Kurds who came to them from the north. The Arabs consider them outsiders, whom they tolerated because of the Americans (to be precise, because of the international coalition against ISIS (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation) - ed.), hoping to the last to get their "piece of the pie" from located here oil and gas wells. Of course, this “bomb” might not explode or lie still for a long time if the Americans had not withdrawn themselves from the control of the occupied territory and had not given everything at the mercy of the Kurdish administration, limited themselves to sluggish responses to the shelling of pro-Iranian units and the periodic bombing of the Iranian corridor to Iraq in city of Abu Kemale. The Kurds, over time, acted more and more straightforwardly and harshly, justifying themselves by fighting the sleeping cells of ISIS, criminals and drug dealers, and at the same time with too frisky local leaders. Another important reason is the general deterioration of the economic situation on both banks of the Euphrates, since the Syrian currency continues to circulate even on Kurdish territory. If the Americans forced the Kurds to share oil revenues with local sheikhs, then perhaps the drop in living standards would not be so noticeable, and the elites, who receive their share of the rent, would restrain their fellow tribesmen. But this, as you understand, did not happen. Also, the Americans, due to their own domestic political turmoil, from the freeze in the Trump era to the confusion of the Biden administration, have not approved a coherent plan or roadmap to restore the economy of the territory under their control. Just as they have not decided on the international status of northeastern Syria, without which it is impossible to attract the investments necessary for the economy of the region. In many ways, this "neglect" is due to the fact that for the Americans, Syria, in principle, has always been in the background compared to the same Iraq and Iran. What threatens the current escalation for Russia? Indirectly, tension will increase on the line of contact with Idlib in mountainous Latakia and Aleppo. Now the militants, apparently succumbing to the general euphoria of the uprising, have stepped up pressure in these areas. But, probably, after some time, they will come to a realization, and perhaps someone will tell you that it is better not to scatter your strength and focus on the SDS. At least at this stage. Also, if the offensive against Manbij and, further, Raqqa is successful, there will be a threat of cutting off the supply routes to those few points of deployment of the Russian Armed Forces, which are based in the depths of Kurdish territory and are engaged in demonstration patrols, sometimes together with the Turks. Otherwise, for Russia, the current turbulence of the American system, based on the Kurdish forces of the SDS, only plays into the hands of Iran, and even more so of Turkey. For the Turks, the SDF is a principled adversary, one might even say an existential one. The Turkish project to create a continuous security zone along the border deep into Syrian territories stalled mainly because of the Americans and partly Russia, representing the interests of Damascus. In these circumstances, the current conflict will provide new opportunities for this project to resume and increase its influence. Iran will also look with gloating glee at the efforts of the United States and, taking the opportunity, strengthen its position on the so-called. "Iranian corridor" to Iraq in the area of Abu Kemal. But intervention in the hostilities unfolding between the Kurds and Arabs would not be the best solution, no matter how great the temptation. After the 2017 memorandum between the command of the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Kurdish leadership, when Russia sought to get ahead of the United States in this area and occupy the territory, but was actually deceived, it would be naive to believe that the next agreement will be implemented. The rich oil fields beyond the Euphrates are still tenaciously controlled by the Americans and the Kurds, and they will not be given away just like that, within the framework of any agreement, even under the pressure of circumstances. Rather, this is the last thing that will be left in the event of an evacuation. Because it is, in fact, the economic basis of the self-proclaimed autonomy and a good bonus in illegal trade. Much more useful than military intervention is to focus on problems inside the part of Syria controlled by the official government, since rising prices and a deepening economic crisis also create unpleasant points of tension and escalation, as, for example, in Suwayda. We should not delude ourselves with the fact that the Syrian American group, i.e. the grouping of the international coalition, with the support of tens of thousands of SDF fighters, will so easily surrender their positions to the Arab rebels. Despite the pressure from both the south and the north, there is reason to believe that the system built by the United States, with losses, but will stand. Another thing is that it will be more difficult to justify and explain to voters in the United States why, after defeating ISIS, the coalition continues to fight with someone there. But this is the concern of American politicians. |
| Posted by:badanov |