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| Former Grain Deal news Roundup for August 18th, 2023 |
| 2023-08-19 |
| Media reports on the preparation by Russia, Turkey and Qatar of a new grain deal [Regnum] Russia, Turkey and Qatar may soon conclude a new grain deal, negotiations are scheduled to be held August 19-20 in the Hungarian capital Budapest, Bild reports on August 18, citing informed sources. It is assumed that grain from Russia, and possibly also from Ukraine, will go to poor countries, mainly African. Türkiye should act as the organizer of supplies, Qatar - as a sponsor. According to Bild, Russia at the meeting in Budapest will be represented by the head of Tatarstan Rustam Minnikhanov , and Turkey by the country's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan . As IA Regnum reported earlier, on August 18, Turkish media reported that Ankara was discussing three possible scenarios for the grain deal. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan plans to discuss this issue with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba , and the issue of a grain deal can be discussed at a likely meeting between Russian and Turkish Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The grain deal on the export of grain from Ukrainian ports has been in effect since July 22, 2022. On July 4, 2023, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that there were no grounds for extending the deal, since it had turned into a purely commercial export of food from Ukraine to “well-fed” countries, and the ports controlled by Kiev and the corridor opened by Russia were used by Ukraine to carry out terrorist attacks. On July 17, Russia announced the suspension of the grain deal, noting that none of the promises made to Russia when concluding this agreement was ever fulfilled. More from regnum.ru The financial university explained why the United States is so concerned about grain from Ukraine China may ask Russia not to interfere with its purchase of grain in Ukraine, even in the context of a non-working grain deal, says Aleksey Zubets, director of the Institute for Socio-Economic Research of the Financial University under the government . He stated this on August 18 to a correspondent of IA Regnum. Earlier it became known that the Joseph Schulte container ship with 30,000 tons of cargo on board left the port of Odessa under the flag of Hong Kong. The ship reached the Bosphorus and stopped at the port of Istanbul. This is the first ship to leave the Ukrainian port after Russia refused to continue participating in the grain deal. “As far as I know, this is a Chinese ship, and it comes under an agreement with China. The Chinese agreed with the Russian authorities on the passage of this ship, and he was allowed to pass. If desired, Russia can block any shipments at any time. Until now, China has been the main buyer of Ukrainian grain. He got the most from the grain deal,” Zubets said. He stressed that China, along with the United States, is the world's largest buyer of food. Therefore, as Zubets believes, it is quite possible that the Chinese may ask the Russian government not to interfere with their purchases in Ukraine. And Moscow, according to the economist, should respect the request of the Chinese comrades, since without China, Russia would not be able to resist the sanctions. “If Russia did not want this ship to leave Ukraine and reach the Turkish straits, then it would not have left and would not have reached,” Zubets stated. As for the future of the grain deal, the economist believes that the problem is that the main counterparty that does not want to negotiate with Russia is the United States. And they do not want to come to terms not on food supplies themselves - the same US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has repeatedly said that the United States is doing everything to facilitate the export of Russian food. “However, Russia needs more than freedom to export food. She wants sanctions lifted. But when it comes to this point, the Americans pretend that they do not understand what it is about and refuse to go forward, ” Zubets said. In his opinion, Ukraine will sell its grain on the world market one way or another. The question is how much. If by sea, then this is the cheapest and most effective way of export. But if the sea is closed, it means that Kyiv will sell by land - two to three times less. In any case, it will be tens of millions of tons. However, the most interesting thing is that Ukrainian grain is actually American. Zubets urged not to forget that the lands in Ukraine belong to the largest international agricultural companies. Of the ten largest Ukrainian agricultural exporters, two or three are national, and the rest are international. “Therefore, when Blinken twitches and offers to organize food sales, he primarily cares not about Ukraine, but about the interests of American companies,” the economist summed up. Earlier , IA Regnum reported that a dry cargo ship flying the flag of Hong Kong was in the port before the start of Russia's special military operation. Its further route has not yet been specified. Prior to this, the Turkish authorities announced security guarantees for ships with grain, heading from the ports of Ukraine, during the passage of the straits. In turn, on August 10, Ukraine announced temporary corridors in the Black Sea for merchant ships. We are talking about those going to or from the ports of Chernomorsk, Odessa and Yuzhny. The coordinates of the routes are not named, but it is alleged that they had previously been proposed in an appeal to the International Maritime Organization, whose council allegedly recognized the right of the Ukrainian side to free commercial navigation. On July 17, 2023, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov announced the suspension of the grain deal . He justified the decision of the Russian authorities by the fact that none of the promises that Moscow received when concluding this agreement was ever fulfilled. The Black Sea deal between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN on the export of grain from Ukrainian ports has been operating since July 22, 2022. However, on July 4, 2023, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that there were no grounds for its further extension, because it had turned into a purely commercial export of food from Ukraine to “well-fed” countries. Yet more from regnum.ru Economists question the chances of Ukraine to establish a full-fledged grain export As part of a non-working grain deal, establishing a full-fledged grain export from Ukraine is quite problematic, says Ekaterina Novikova , associate professor of the Department of Economic Theory of the Russian University of Economics. G. V. Plekhanov. She stated this on August 18 to a correspondent of IA Regnum. Economists: Kyiv will not be able to export grain across the Black Sea Earlier it turned out that the container ship Joseph Schulte with 30 thousand tons of cargo on board left the port of Odessa under the flag of Hong Kong. The ship reached the Bosphorus and landed in the port of Istanbul. This is the first ship to leave the Ukrainian port after Moscow's decision to terminate participation in the grain deal. As Novikova noted, firstly, the security of Ukrainian ports in the conditions of hostilities remains in question, and insurance companies responsible for the safety of cargo will not want to incur obviously possible losses on the delivery of products to the customer. Thus, Russia's participation in the grain deal is necessary, but the question arises of securing agreements that have not been observed over the entire past period of the deal. The economist stressed that if Ukraine again manages to export its grain to the world market, then grain prices will go down, but not much. In turn, Anastasia Prikladova, Associate Professor of the Department of International Business and Customs of the Russian University of Economics. G. V. Plekhanova noted that the news that a merchant ship had reached the Bosporus from the port of Odessa was prematurely associated with grain supplies. “Firstly, this vessel is a container ship, which is designed for other types of cargo. Secondly, this ship has not been out to sea for more than a year and a half. It’s not a fact that there is a load on it at all, ” Prikladova said. She recalled that after refusing to extend the grain deal, the Russian side announced the possibility of its renewal subject to the fulfillment of Russia's conditions, which are enshrined in the second part of the agreement. This is a basic scenario in which Western countries should play their part, but not Turkey. “Will Erdogan be able to influence the renewal of the deal? Maybe yes. Through a chain of conditions and concessions, which together will bring the Russian Federation a similar benefit when compared with the points of the grain deal (lifting restrictions on the export of fertilizers and wheat, connecting the Russian Agricultural Bank to SWIFT, etc.). The question is rather different. Which countries are interested in resuming the grain deal?” the economist asked. According to her, after speculative operations on the commodity exchange, the situation with world prices for wheat has stabilized. Competition in the European market has decreased, which is favorable for local farmers. For Russia, without the fulfillment of its conditions by Western countries, the grain deal is not interesting. Therefore, it is unlikely that it will be renewed. “Will Ukraine be able to increase wheat exports outside the grain deal? On the Black Sea route - hardly. The main reason is the destruction of the port infrastructure. Therefore, commodity flows will be redirected mainly to land routes, but they will not be able to provide the same volume of traffic, ” the economist summed up. Earlier , IA Regnum reported that a dry cargo ship flying the flag of Hong Kong was in the port before the start of the special military operation of the Russian Federation. Nothing is known about his future itinerary . The Turkish authorities announced security guarantees for ships with grain coming from Ukrainian ports during the passage of the straits. Economist Aleksey Zubets said that China could ask the Russian Federation to allow it to buy grain in Ukraine even under the conditions of a non-working grain deal, especially since it was thanks to China that Moscow was able to cope with the sanctions pressure. The fact that the grain deal ceases to operate on July 17, 2023, said the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov . Explaining the reasons for this turn of events, he recalled that none of the promises that Moscow received when concluding this agreement had been fulfilled. Even more from regnum.ru The first dry cargo ship entered the Bosphorus after the cancellation of the grain deal The container ship Joseph Schulte, which left the port of Odessa on August 16 at about 07:00 on August 18, entered the Bosphorus Strait, NTV reported. A dry cargo ship flying the Hong Kong flag was in the port before the start of Russia's special military operation. The vessel with agricultural products was the first to enter the strait after the cancellation of the grain deal. “The ship with grain, which anchored in Kumkoy last night, is currently passing through the Bosphorus,” the channel reported. The route of the cargo ship is not specified. As IA Regnum reported , on August 17, the Haber Global TV channel, citing sources in the Turkish Ministry of National Defense, informed that Ankara guaranteed the safe passage of ships with grain from the ports of Ukraine through the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus. On August 16, Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine Oleksandr Kubrakov said that a container ship with more than 30,000 tons of cargo left the port of Odessa. It became the first ship to use the temporary corridor opened by Kiev in the Black Sea. The vessel has been in the port of Odessa since February 23, 2022. |
| Posted by:badanov |