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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Why 'advance' leads the Armed Forces of Ukraine to unjustified losses
2023-06-20
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Sergey Adamov

[REGNUM] On June 19, the Russian Ministry of Defense published footage of the defeat of the German Leopard tank by a Russian kamikaze drone from among the armored vehicles manufactured by NATO countries transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The video, posted on the agency's Telegram channel, was filmed on the Zaporozhye sector of the front. The tank - according to external signs, Leopard-2A6 - was hit in the roof.

Earlier, on June 13, the Russian Defense Ministry published footage of shot down and captured Leopards and American Bradley armored vehicles.

Part of the Western equipment that the Armed Forces of Ukraine used in the offensive is blown up by mines and subsequently achieved by Russian artillery fire. But the real threat to NATO armored vehicles is attack aircraft, in particular, the Mi-28 and Ka-52 Alligator helicopters. The footage of the helicopters, including at night, is published by a number of Telegram channels, including the official resources of the Ministry of Defense. They indicate that helicopters are extremely effective at hitting armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The effectiveness of Russian aviation in repelling the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is recognized, in particular, by the British military department. “Russia has significantly increased its ability to use attack helicopters since the beginning of Ukrainian counter-offensive operations in southern Ukraine ,” the British Ministry of Defense said in a statement.

Russian aviation uses "long-range missiles" against ground targets, the report says. Thus, aviation can operate from a safe distance without fear of opposition from Ukrainian air defense, while at the same time causing significant damage to the enemy.

Russian helicopters use anti-tank guided missiles to destroy armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, working at a distance from the front line, a military pilot and helicopter pilot, a veteran of military operations, told Regnum news agency on condition of anonymity.

“Probably, the main trump card at such distances is the Whirlwind anti-tank complex,” the interlocutor suggested. “ This complex allows you to work on targets at a distance of 5 to 10 km and at the same time is highly accurate using several types of ammunition.”

According to the source, the main anti-tank weapon for the Alligators and other combat helicopters was the Vikhr-1 guided missiles, which proved to be good back in Syria as a means of destroying static and moving targets.

6 MISSILES OF THE WHIRLWIND COMPLEX
“This is a supersonic missile with a warhead of 12 kg. That is, it can destroy heavily armored targets, which the conditional Lancet drone cannot do (it has a much smaller warhead). At the same time, the missile remains outside the zone of destruction of the enemy’s portable anti-aircraft missile systems, with which the Armed Forces of Ukraine are stuffed to the eyeballs , ”the interlocutor explained.

In addition, judging by the latest data, our pilots have seriously increased the productivity of strikes with unguided aircraft missiles (NAR) from a pitch-up, that is, when flying with a climb and the nose of the aircraft raised above the horizon, the expert noted.

“Thus, they cover the area with a volley, hitting a number of targets at once,” the source said to IA Regnum.

ACHILLES' HEEL OF THE NATO OFFENSIVE STRATEGY
The technical features of Russian flight technology are only one of the components of the failures of the Ukrainian offensive, analysts say. The main problem is the strategic miscalculations of Kyiv and its Western curators, who did not bother to protect the advancing troops from air strikes.

As part of the columns of armored vehicles destroyed in the Zaporozhye direction, anti-aircraft missile systems are practically not used to cover troops on the march, which allows Russian attack aircraft to operate without any special difficulties.

The problem that in practice led to this weakness of the enemy lies in the very strategy of NATO, which was adopted by the Ukrainian military, military expert Maxim Tumbartsev suggested in a commentary to IA Regnum .

“NATO's emphasis is on air supremacy by aviation, so anti-aircraft missile systems are not as developed as those of the Soviet and Russian armies.
We are talking about the suppression of aviation by aviation forces, the suppression of air defense by aviation forces and the support of ground forces by aviation forces, ” the expert explained.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine could have exhausted the supply of missiles for Soviet-made air defense systems that they were armed with, Tumbartsev pointed out. Part of the anti-aircraft systems was also destroyed, and new deliveries did not compensate for the losses. But even those complexes that were transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine are extremely rarely used in the front line.

“From what the Armed Forces of Ukraine received from the West, US-made Avenger anti-aircraft missile systems, in some way an analogue of our Strela-10 systems, can be used to cover the troops. There are British Stormer air defense systems, ” the expert listed.

“But these complexes are either not used, or they are used in an extremely strange way.

For example, a single Stormer air defense system was destroyed as a result of an artillery strike. However, he moved independently, no one covered him, he did not cover anyone. It is not at all clear what he was doing there. There were no attempts to include air defense systems in the columns, ” continued Maxim Tumbartsev.

ENEMY SOLDIERS ARE AFRAID TO GO INTO BATTLE
The lack of air cover and the activity of Russian aviation lead to the fact that the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine refuse to go on the offensive and come up with various tricks, the German publication Spiegel notes in its publication . Ukrainian tankers told German journalists that they had to simulate breakdowns of armored vehicles in order not to go into battle.

In addition, AFU soldiers report a large number of lost Leopard 2 tanks and other armored vehicles, which seriously affects the morale of the units involved in the offensive.

Among the threats to armored vehicles are also called Russian drones. Not only loitering ammunition "Lancet", which have long been used in the zone of the NMD, but also FPV drones, capable of hitting even heavy armored vehicles.

“The way the Armed Forces conduct combat operations so far shows some very serious miscalculations, starting from the level of planning,” a former army aviation pilot explained to IA Regnum .

NOT ACCORDING TO THE SYRIAN, BUT ACCORDING TO THE KARABAKH SCENARIO
Many sources predicted that it was impossible to attack in conditions of total enemy air superiority, that there would be losses. But the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for a strange reason, ignored this, the interlocutor noted.

“As a result, armored vehicles turned out to be defenseless against air strikes,” the source emphasized to IA Regnum .

For comparison, Syrian militants sought to use military equipment in bulk, always actively maneuvered, used the landscape and shelters during offensive operations, the source said. “And the command of the Ukrainian army seems to be deliberately concentrating the shock fist of armored vehicles in one area and sending it literally to be shot. Hence, the defeat of two or three targets in the same area recorded on the video by the Whirlwind at once, the expert emphasized.

The closest analogy, according to the interlocutor, is the conflict in Karabakh, when Azerbaijan, with strikes from kamikaze drones and strike UAVs using guided weapons, knocked out most of the Armenian armored vehicles, which tried to counterattack several times.

WHAT IS THE INTEREST OF THE SURVIVING LEOPARDS FOR RUSSIAN GUNSMITHS
“The reason is the same - the lack of a coherent air defense system. Why Kiev and its allies did not attend to its creation is a question , ”the specialist noted.

There are several explanations for why the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stubbornly continues to attempt an offensive, without even trying to correct the miscalculations made in the planning of the operation. However, it is quite possible that it is impossible in principle to correct them, Tumbartsev, in turn, points out.

“The only explanation for why air defense systems are not included in the columns of armored vehicles is that there are simply too few of them,” the expert believes . There is no other way to explain this approach. Perhaps the fact is that NATO simply never planned to conduct a conflict in this format, therefore, in principle, they have no idea how planning should be carried out. The issue is not that they did not supply the right amount of SAMs, but that no one knows how much is the “right amount” for such a conflict, the military analyst added.

It cannot be ruled out that at such a high price, Kiev is trying to force the hesitant NATO members to start supplying even more powerful weapons to Ukraine, including fighter jets - they say, we said that there is no way without fighters, and now we are suffering such losses. Some of Ukraine's Western allies fear its defeat even more than Kyiv itself, and such arguments may work.

In any case, while Kyiv does not particularly consider losses, which means that the offensive will continue.

Posted by:badanov

#2  "Many sources predicted that it was impossible to attack [ukr attack rus] in conditions of total enemy air superiority, that there would be losses. But the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for a strange reason, ignored this..."
Posted by: mossomo   2023-06-20 12:55  

#1  Is the Ukrainian offensive another Kursk?
Posted by: Abu Uluque   2023-06-20 12:40  

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