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| The state of Ukrainian air defense: 'secret files of the Pentagon' and reality |
| 2023-04-14 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. [REGNUM] Air defense systems of NATO countries were supplied to Ukraine from the presence or were purchased from third countries. It is problematic for the industry of the Alliance members to quickly produce the number of air defense systems necessary for Ukraine. Therefore, the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is doomed to degradation, as the number of launchers and the space controlled by them is reduced to a critical number. For the past week, the network has been discussing leaks from secret Pentagon briefings about the situation, including with the armed forces of Ukraine. From that impressive array of data, I would like to single out the part that concerns the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The most significant and effective part of them are the S-300 (long-range anti-aircraft system) and Buk (medium-range anti-aircraft missile system). According to information from the leaks, at the moment the APU has 28 S-300 launchers and 57 Buk launchers. And for the S-300, the stock of missiles is about 470 pieces, that is, four missiles on average per one launch tube (there are 4 tubes in the launcher). For Buk complexes, the stock per launcher is even less. Of course, it must be taken into account that the leak may well be a deliberate throwing in of disinformation, designed to lull our vigilance before the start of the announced offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But nevertheless, there are other objective data to assess the potential of Ukrainian air defense. Initially, the USSR inherited about 240 S-300 launchers, which, we recall, have 4 launch tubes each. Let's round up approximate calculations for convenience, and we will get about 1000 rockets for a one-time charge of all installations. It is not known for certain which part of them was decommissioned, but, based on the standards for the presence of ammunition (AM) directly in the units and locations, the calculation was at least four to five times. Thus, Ukraine received from the USSR approximately 4,000 to 5,000 anti-aircraft missiles for the S-300. At the same time, this complex has the first upper stage of the rocket of a rather large size and uses solid propellant based on gunpowder, which is not stored for a very long time. On average 10-15 years. In particular, the sealant, which protects the powder cartridge in this stage, dries out, and when the rocket is launched, the powder does not burn out completely and can either simply wake up or explode at launch. Since the beginning of the NWO, our pilots have repeatedly observed such cases. The Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile either did not gain speed or behaved inadequately on the trajectory, which is also proved by the S-300 missiles hitting residential buildings. Part of the stock of missiles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine underwent restoration of serviceability in the 2000s in Russia, as part of defense cooperation, when specialists from the Dnipropetrovsk design bureau Yuzhnoye extended the life of our strategic missiles of the Voyevoda class. The exact figures are unknown, but taking into account the general reduction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by the beginning of the new century, it can be assumed that no more than 50% of Ukrainian missiles underwent such a restoration procedure. By the beginning of the NMD, Ukraine had about 70 combat-ready S-300 launchers, for which, in the most favorable case for it, it had up to ten full ammunition sets of conditioned missiles. According to information from sources on the other side, by the beginning of the massive strikes on the energy sector, BC reserves were used up to about half. Thus, these rough estimates confirm the order of numbers contained in the leaked Pentagon documents. Based on them, it can be expected that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will delay the use of the remaining anti-aircraft missiles for the most important purposes as much as possible, since it is physically impossible to replenish stocks, no one else on the planet produces them. The situation is similar with the Buk installations. Moreover, the experience of the war showed that they are the most dangerous for aviation, largely due to the fact that on one tracked chassis they combine all the main components of the complex at once: launchers, and a guidance system, and control. At the same time, they have rather high parameters in terms of range and height of the lesion. It is planned to replace these complexes with air defense systems manufactured by NATO countries. But they, as a rule, were created on the basis of aircraft missiles, since the ideology of building air defense in the West is based primarily on the use of aviation and sedentary, almost stationary systems for air defense of important objects. Such a mobile air defense, as created in the USSR, was practically not designed in NATO. In comparison with domestic systems, the use of aircraft missiles worsens their energy, because in aviation a rocket is launched taking into account the already existing carrier speed. But it is natural that Western systems are quite effective, and most importantly, they have the possibility of producing ammunition. Summing up, we can expect that as the stocks of missiles for the Buk and S-300 are exhausted, the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not disappear, but its efficiency and saturation density will decrease. There will be problems not only of the performance characteristics of NATO weapons and the quantitative saturation of their troops, but also difficulties with logistics and the lack of unification with existing Soviet-style air defense systems. It is not worth counting on the problems with air defense in Ukraine to come within the time frame indicated in the Pentagon leak. But the reserves there are really on the verge, so the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to stretch them out as long as possible and cover the most important objects with these systems. It should be taken into account that the existing air defense systems of NATO countries were supplied to Ukraine from the presence or were purchased from third countries. It is problematic for the industry of the Alliance members to quickly produce the number of air defense systems necessary for Ukraine. Therefore, the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is doomed to degradation, as the number of launchers and the space controlled by them is reduced to a critical number. Already in the medium term, Russian aviation will be able to suppress the remnants of the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and thereby catastrophically worsening the situation for the Ukrainian infantry. Without an air umbrella, it will sharply lose effectiveness, and then there will be no chance of resistance. The only way to maintain at least the current level of airspace protection for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is the supply of several hundred fighters. Optimal in this situation is the American F-16. They are in storage, a lot of them are written off for replacement with new models, in the West there are many pilots who are fluent in this technique and are ready to sit at the controls as mercenaries. This explains why the West is pushing Kyiv to attack. In order to play the last trump card in the form of fighters, Kyiv must demonstrate that it is still capable of active action. Otherwise, around the autumn-winter, against the background of the degradation of the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the massive recruitment of volunteers in Russia, the situation for Kyiv will become irreversible. This is confirmed by the words of the organizers of the next meeting of NATO defense ministers in the Ramstein format that additional deliveries of artillery ammunition and ammunition for Ukraine's depleted air defense will be in the spotlight at the next meeting. And that is why it is extremely important for us not only to repulse the offensive, but also not to give even the slightest opportunity to declare a victory, that is, to prevent the enemy from taking at least some noticeable settlement that the Ukrainians can wrap up in the media sphere as a military super success. Of course, ideally, it would be generally to defeat the shock fist of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and launch a counteroffensive into the resulting gap, which could bring down the front of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But this is ideal. But in reality, it is necessary to build a calculation based on the worst-case scenario for us, so as not to give Kyiv arguments for obtaining fighters and thereby delay the hostilities for another couple of years. April 13, 2023 Alexey Vasiliev |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #1 ...There's a wonderful bit in Star Wars Episode VIII where the heroine tells her version of the Rebellion to Luke Skywalker, who listens carefully and replies: "Amazing. Everything you said, every single word of it...was completely wrong." Mike |
| Posted by: MikeKozlowski 2023-04-14 07:01 |