Commentary by Russian blogger Rybar
[ColonelCassad] The US national debt has been steadily increasing over the years. From 2000 to 2023, it grew from 5.7 trillion to $31.4 trillion, which is more than 100% of US GDP.
The most active growth of the US national debt occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic - $ 4.7 trillion. This figure includes spending due to the Coronavirus Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES), the Families Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA), the Consolidated Appropriations Act, and the 2021 American Rescue Plan Act.
These packages included a range of economic support measures, including direct payments to individuals, increased unemployment benefits, loans and grants for businesses, as well as funding for medical facilities and the distribution of vaccines. These are the same “helicopter money” that ensured the relative stability of the financial system in that period.
DEBT CEILING DEBATE
The upcoming debt ceiling debate in June is likely to create only the appearance of discussion before the inevitable decision is made.
▪️Finance Minister Janet Yellen regularly calls ( https://tass.ru/ekonomika/16975295) legislators raise the debt ceiling. In her opinion, the refusal to increase could be disastrous for the US economy. Yellen noted that the debt ceiling had been raised many times in the past, and failure to raise it now would be unprecedented and lead to a default.
▪️In the United States, of course, there are opponents of such measures. For example, Congressman from Arizona Andy Biggs. In his opinion, the debt ceiling should not be raised without significant cuts in government spending.
The structural deficit of the US budget has been covered for decades by issuing Treasury bonds, which, in fact, are imposed on investors around the world as an uncontested investment of funds.
If any country does not show sufficient interest in US debt instruments, then problems quickly arise with the financing of local projects by the IMF, the World Bank and large banking groups.
In some cases, US financial structures resort to direct pressure, organize local financial crises and riots. All this is very reminiscent of racketeering at the interstate level.
Are there purely economic reasons not to raise the US national debt?
Rising debt can have negative consequences for the economy in the long run.
▪️If the discount rate remains high, the government will have to spend more money paying interest on the bonds sold. This will reduce the amount of funds for other government programs.
▪️A high level of debt can lead to a loss of confidence in the US economy on the part of foreign investors and, as a result, to a decrease in the value of the dollar.
But against the backdrop of the possibility of obtaining unlimited funding, these arguments will most likely not be taken into account.
How does the Congressional Budget Office assess the prospects for an increase in the US national debt?
According to the long-term forecast of the Congressional Budget Office, the debt ceiling is expected to be exceeded in 2033 and 2050 in the coming decades.
Subject to the invariance of the current legislation, in 2033 the public debt will be about $39.4 trillion. This is about 118% of the US GDP.
By 2050, the national debt will be about $95.0 trillion. This would be a significant increase from current levels, with debt projected to be around 195% of GDP at the time.
The average rate of increase in public debt from 2023 to 2033 will be about 2% per year, and in the period up to 2050 it will be about 4.4% per year.
The public debt forecast may be adjusted depending on future economic and political developments. Calculations are based on the assumption that US lawmakers will continue to raise the debt ceiling if necessary, preventing default.
▪️In the bottom line, we have a total increase in public debt of $63.5 trillion until 2050, which averages an annual increase of about $2.3 trillion per year.
This is about half of the funds spent to compensate for the consequences of the pandemic. With the current Fed discount rate of 5%, an increase in government debt could theoretically provide sufficient liquidity in the economy with relative control over inflation. The main goal of the Fed and the US Treasury now is to maintain growth rates and prevent a sharp rise in inflation.
Based on these data, it seems very likely not just a one-time increase in the debt ceiling, but the adoption of a program to increase it, which will allow planning long-term investments with a payback period of more than 5 years.
And these are all high-tech areas of strategic importance for the development of the US economy.
What are the consequences for the US and the global economy will increase public debt?
In the United States, this will help maintain the volume of budgetary funding for numerous government programs and help businesses compete for world markets.
For example, the program to relocate high-tech production from the EU to the US under the Inflation Reduction Act has shown its effectiveness. We can see similar programs in other sectors of the US economy.
In social terms, raising the debt ceiling will allow the continued full financing of social security programs, which can guarantee sufficient domestic political stability. A significant part of the public debt can be absorbed in the US domestic market by mutual funds, pension funds, banks and households.
The huge US military budget will also be financed to a large extent by new levels of public debt.
For the world economy, this will mean the formation of a new economic system. Countries that have lost their political and economic sovereignty will in fact become financial donors to the United States and consumers of new public debt.
Now the banking crisis in the EU is forcing the central banks of these countries to attract huge amounts of dollars in order to prevent the collapse of the financial system.
Simply turning on a printing press could drive up inflation and undermine investor confidence in the euro. Naturally, dollars are attracted at the current discount rate and above.
For private investors, US fixed-income debt instruments are also becoming more attractive against the background of a lower discount rate in the Eurozone. This contributes to the flow of private capital from the EU to the US.
For countries that do not want to become donors, the creation of an alternative financial and payment system will become even more urgent. This will allow you not to burden your budget with new US debt obligations, the real provision of which both the Treasury Department and the Congressional Budget Office prefer to remain modestly silent about.
https://t.me/rybar/45535 - zinc
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