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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| How Could Western Intelligence Have Got It Wrong, Again? They Didn't. They Had Other Purposes |
| 2023-03-12 |
| [Gateway] Larry Johnson, an ex-CIA analyst, writes "I no longer hold clearances and have not had access to the classified intelligence assessments. However, I have heard that the finished intelligence being supplied to U.S. policymakers continues to declare that Russia is on the ropes — and their economy is crumbling. Also, analysts insist that the Ukrainians are beating the Russians". Johnson responds that — lacking valid human sources — "western agencies are almost wholly dependent today on ’liaison reporting’" (i.e., from ’friendly’ foreign intelligence services), without doing ’due diligence’ by cross-checking discrepancies with other reporting. In practice, this largely means western reporting simply replicates Kiev’s PR line. But there does occur a huge problem when marrying Kiev’s output (as Johnson says) to UK reports — for ’corroboration’. The reality is UK reporting itself is also based on what Ukraine is saying. This is known as false collateral — i.e., when that which is used for corroboration and validation actually derives from the same single source. It becomes — deliberately — a propaganda multiplier. In plain words however, all these points are ’red herrings’. Bluntly, so-called western ’Intelligence’ is no longer the sincere attempt to understand a complex reality, but rather, it has become the tool to falsify a nuanced reality in order to attempt to manipulate the Russian psyche towards a collective defeatism (in respect not just to the Ukraine, but to the idea that Russia should remain as a sovereign whole). And — to the extent that ’lies’ are fabricated to accustom the Russian public to inevitable defeat — the obverse edge clearly is intended to train the western public towards the ’groupthink’ that victory is inevitable. And that Russia is an ’unreformed evil Empire’ which threatens all Europe. |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #11 It seems to set the stage for the next major Chinese strategic objective They will have to do it in the next few years. Their demographics are collapsing, their economy is in tatters, high tech nations are refusing to import any more mid-high end chips or to have their companies in China causing their economy to tailspin with the housing crisis. China has a window of 5-10 years before they won't be able to push power past the fist island chain. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2023-03-12 15:31 |
| #10 Russia may win and status reports are always wrong but Russia has not won yet as they quite reasonably expected. When/if they do it may prove Pyrrhic. |
| Posted by: Glenmore 2023-03-12 14:08 |
| #9 Larry Johnson is a KGB asset projecting what Russia does in its propaganda onto the West That some outlets may lie is one thing. But that all the countries in Europe partake in this conspiracy he alleges betrays his intentions not ours |
| Posted by: Armaros 2023-03-12 12:42 |
| #8 Kissinger was utterly certain that triangulation was the tool to manipulate the Sino-Soviet bloc when Russia was the dominant partner and the world was divied up in east-west blocks of allies or minor players standing aside. Fast forward and there really are three major hegemons, albeit getting long in the tooth. The three players now are a US-NATO block, Russia-Belarus, and China. India and Brazilare budding but not yet mature. I look at the Ukrainian conflict and see exhaustion setting in for two of the three, and China isn't one of them. Instead, it makes noises to support Russia, watches the other two spend down war-fighting capability and/or logistical readiness, and sees the by-standers looking more at China than ever before as a hegemon to listen to. Now, we have the idiot Puppet Show emptying the Strategic petroleum reserve, destabilizing the economy with inflation and debt, and stirring up domestic cultural/racial unrest, almost as if on Peking's behalf. It seems to set the stage for the next major Chinese strategic objective, Taiwan and South China Seas dominance, and we are woefully handicapped and conflicted as the national will is watered down to silly conflict about DEI and pronouns. It seems to me Peking read our history and we apparently don't! |
| Posted by: NoMoreBS 2023-03-12 12:08 |
| #7 Also, analysts insist that the Ukrainians are beating the Russians I haven't seen that in any serious analyst report. Ukrainians do best when they can be mobile. With all winter and now being mud, they can't. It is a grind now and Russia will eventually win a grind war. When the ground hardens up and the Ukrainians can be mobile again, that may change. Especially with western tanks leading an attack. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2023-03-12 10:08 |
| #6 it has become the tool to falsify a nuanced reality So they read The Daily Mail? |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2023-03-12 09:46 |
| #5 Now we're literally in Soviet Union territory Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are NATO members. Nothing is going to change that except an American bug out. We're on the hook. Putin decides tomorrow to go there, its launch time. Better to drain his resources now than push the button later. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2023-03-12 08:26 |
| #4 Maybe consequences for being wrong? For the analysts and policy makers, not for the rest of us. |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2023-03-12 07:28 |
| #3 Now we're literally in Soviet Union territory. Remember how we used to make fun of them because their entire country was a lie? And anyone who reported the truth got punished? We're there right now. Just remember they've said nuclear war is better than the Russians winning. |
| Posted by: Hupung Untervehr9838 2023-03-12 07:26 |
| #2 Ukralnska Pravda - UK Defence Intelligence says Russia suffers unusually heavy losses in Ukraine |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2023-03-12 07:00 |
| #1 Key Takeaway: The dominant characteristic here is remaining loyal to the group – even when the policy is working badly and its consequences disturb the conscience of members. 20+ years in Afghanistan as an example? Comments? Bueller? Anyone ? |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2023-03-12 06:28 |