[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS- TORKHAM GATE CLOSED TO ALL TRAFFIC – Several reports began circulating on social media that the Taliban had closed Torkham gate to all traffic and were turning people back. We confirmed the gate was indeed closed and it sounds as if it is related to Paksitan’s refusal to honor medical visas for Afghans. A source in Kabul said the Taliban intended to take advantage of Pakistan’s weak economic position by closing the portal to trade and humanitarian goods deliveries. Most expect a settlement to be reached and the gate should reopen eventually. Late reporting confirmed that Spin Boldak-Chaman remains open. At-risk Afghans intending to attempt a crossing should call ahead and monitor relevant social-media channels to ensure it is open before embarking on their journey.
- NOTED AFGHAN JOURNALIST RELEASED FROM CUSTODY IN KANDAHAR – Mohammadyar Majrooh, a reporter for TOLO News was released from custody in Kandahar after being detained on unspecified charges for five days.
- PAKISTAN IDENTIFIES TTP MILITANTS RESPONSIBLE FOR KARACHI ATTACK – Police officials in Karachi say they have identified two TTP terrorists who likely planned the attack on the police headquarters on 17 February. Zala Noor and a man called Kifayatullah were fingered as the planners of the attack. Noor is reputedly from North Waziristan and Kifayatullah is said to have come from the Lakki Marwat area. The two had conducted surveillance of the police facility for at least a month prior to the attack. Both men escaped after the attack and are on the run. Pakistani police are in the process of searching several known residences and have interviewed family members of the suspects.
- TALIBAN ENFORCES BAN ON RUPEES IN URUZGAN – Several small business owners in the capital of Uruzgan have been arrested for violating the ban on accepting Pakistani currency. Their shops have been closed. The arrests came after a fourteen-day ‘grace period’ had expired. It is believed that over 50 people were arrested and may face public lashings and/or heavy fines for violating the ban. Several locals who were interviewed about the arrests appear to approve of the Taliban’s move and say they want to trade in Afghanistan’s currency.
- AS MANY AS 100 TRAVELERS TRAPPED IN SNOW ON THE KABUL-GHOR HIGHWAY – A convoy of mini-vans that have been stuck in heavy snow on either side of the Kotal-e-Bakak pass in Bamiyan contains approximately 100 people. Many of the passengers are said to be women and children and they are believed to have been trapped for the past three days. It is not clear if a rescue attempt is underway.
CONFLICT TRACKER
Khost:The bodies of 2 TTP commanders were said to have been discovered in the province (Buri Kaly hills). The commanders were identified as Naeemullah Wazir (a.k.a. Waqas) and a Hameed (a.k.a. Sangin). Photos of the bodies show they had been severely mutilated. No group has claimed responsibility for the killings and no further information was available.
NEXT 24 HOURS
TROUBLE BREWING BETWEEN IRAN AND PAKISTAN ON THEIR SHARED BORDER – Iranian border guards reportedly slaughtered large numbers of donkeys, mules, and livestock in Baluchistan. A VIDEO of the incident has circulated on social media and locals on both sides of the border have vowed revenge against the Iranian border forces for the senseless slaughter. The animals represented the livelihoods of many who live in the area. Pakistan is sending troops to reinforce its side of the border and they will begin arriving today. There is a potential for local reprisals against the Iranian border forces that could escalate into a cross-border incident. It is not clear what caused the incident.
Daily Evacuation Brief | February 18, 2023
[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS
- PAKISTAN SECURITY OPERATIONS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED – Several local sources in Pakistan have reported additional search operations in Peshawar, Karachi, Islamabad, and Rawalpindi focusing on Afghan nationals. Police vehicles have been filmed outside of hostels, hotels, and guest houses. Pakistani security forces stationed at security checkpoints are said to be stopping 1 out of 4 pedestrians for periodic searches and identity checks. While the searches of homes, apartments, and guest houses have not begun in force yet, they are expected to take place soon. Some arrests have been reported but seem to be overwhelmingly Pakistan nationals rather than Afghans at this point. It is our assessment that these searches are focused on finding potential TTP terrorists and are not focused on Afghan refugees.
- HUMAN SMUGGLING A PROBLEM FOR AFGHAN REFUGEES GLOBALLY – The discovery of 18 bodies, purportedly Afghan refugees, in a container truck in Bulgaria has sparked concern among refugee agencies. The truck was found on the outskirts of the capital on 17 February and there were 34 other people who survived the ordeal. All have been taken to hospitals for treatment. The problem is occurring elsewhere and several cases are being investigated in Europe and Latin America. The smuggling rings that control the pipelines have made huge profits from the business and it is not clear how many refugees have died while in transit to foreign countries. At-risk Afghans contemplating such journeys should consider the risks and reach out to legitimate refugee agencies before embarking on such potentially fatal journeys.
- THE “NEW” AND “OLD” TALIBAN – Much has been said about the chasm that has opened between Kandahar and Kabul. Rumors of coups and open civil war have been postulated by analysts and policy wonks over the last year. Speeches by the Ministers of both the Interior and Defense have been openly critical of the Supreme Leader and his Deobandist clique. However, no action has been taken and many are wondering why the two “young lions” simply don’t march on Kandahar and put their problem in the ground. A reasonable theory for the inaction has come out of some Ivy League researchers who question either faction’s ability to maintain control over the foot soldiers who give the Taliban their grip on power. According to their research, both Kandahar and Kabul have been forced to walk a fine line with their differing policy approaches because they both fear the same thing – pushing the Taliban mujahadeen into the waiting arms of ISIS.
Too much of a progressive agenda risks disillusionment within the ranks and the perception of abandoning the conservative 7th-century tenets of Islam they prefer. Overly regressive policies mean continued ostracization and condemnation from fellow Islamic states and no voice in international or regional affairs which is important for the more enlightened among the rank and file. Unquestionably, ISIS-K has continued to gain recruits and represents the most immediate threat to the regime. An internal power struggle between Kandahar and Kabul could result in mass defections that would add significant numbers and material to a resurgent ISIS, in a relatively short amount of time. The result would be a fresh layer of chaos to an already perilous situation. Perhaps the vision of such a reality is what has kept the young lions in check so far. Only time will tell.Yes, that would be a problem. - PROTESTS IN IRAN BACK WITH A VENGEANCE – After a lull of several weeks, protestors in Iran took to the streets again in many cities across the country (including Tehran). Thousands of protestors flocked to public squares and marched on government buildings and other habitual demonstration rally points. Many were filmed chanting “freedom” and the reemergence appears to have been synchronized. In response, the regime began recalling police and military personnel who had been granted short terms of leave. A strong response is expected from the regime and violence seems likely.
NEXT 24 HOURS
PAKISTAN SEARCHES AND SECURITY OPERATIONS WILL CONTINUE – Based on actions and threats from the TTP, it appears their campaigns will focus on Pakistani Police infrastructure and personnel. In response, Pakistan has raised its security posture to the highest level and it is expected to remain so for the foreseeable future. At-risk Afghans residing near police stations and/or facilities frequented by police (Mosques, shopping centers, apartment buildings, etc) are urged to stay alert and be ready to take shelter should an attack occur. They should not linger near these facilities and recognize that police vehicles, checkpoints, and other security-related locations are obvious targets for the TTP.