In the opening months of the war, Russia's formidable arsenal of cruise and ballistic missiles was directed against a wide array of targets, from ground based air defenses to military bases and infrastructure. For more information on that stage of the campaign, please refer to my previous video on the subject. But since October, Russia has turned both these systems and its newly arrived Iranian drones on Ukraine's critical infrastructure instead, particularly its power grid, sending millions into rolling (or total) blackouts.
These attacks have all the hallmarks of strategic bombing, an attempt to destroy the ability and will of a nation to resist by striking targets behind the lines. It seems reasonable to assume that Russia's focus has thus turned from using its best weapons to destroy military units, to coercing the population and Government of Ukraine to surrender.
That is not a new idea, and in this episode I examine the nature of the new Russian campaign, discuss historical strategic bombing campaigns and their outcomes, and try to build a better understanding of these attacks and what they might achieve.
Caveats:
Any attempt to discern exactly what Russia's intention is with these strikes is obviously limited by the fact that information on decision making in the Russian Government is extremely limited. This video is based on attempting to divine their motivation based on their actions.
I also want to stress that announcements by all parties regarding these acts should be scrutinized closely - including all discussion of damage or interception rates.
Estimates on production rates and stockpiles is subject to wide error margins.