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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Day 53 impending still not started Battle of Donbas |
| 2022-04-18 |
| Militaryland. More at the link Russia has material in place but has not organized battalions into attack configuration. Ukraine has made some small advances near Kharkiv. If the Russian occupation north of Donbas collapses, it would threaten the logistics of future Russian efforts. Russia has only a few dozen city blocks from completing the conquest of Mariupol (which they surrounded on 2 March and in which they have a lot of troops working and a lot of troops dying). Russia will claim the conquest of Mariupol as a victory but it will likely go down as a hollow victory for Russia and a symbol of Russian brutality. |
| Posted by:Lord Garth |
| #5 "a hollow victory" - LOL The #1 stated objective of the war was to prevent NATO from using Ukraine as a bulwark ("demilitarize"). The completion of the land bridge to Crimea has extinguished that possibility. The #2 objective was to destroy the Azov Battalion and other neonazis regiments that had terrified the Russian-speaking Donbas for 8 years. That too is about to be completed in Mariupol. The third (unstated) objective has been to devastate Ukraine and make it even poorer than it was before the war -- to reduce it to subsistence status so that it will be dependent on foreign aid for another 30-40 years. In process. |
| Posted by: Angavirong the Limber5428 2022-04-18 20:25 |
| #4 /\ :Meh: Remember Clinton launching cruise missiles? |
| Posted by: magpie 2022-04-18 19:34 |
| #3 Where's the Navy? They're not waiting for the ground to dry. Russia Expands ‘Powerful’ Cruise Missile Strikes to Western City of Lviv |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2022-04-18 13:18 |
| #2 Mariupol may have chewed up some valuable Russian infantry but it (1) cleared the land route to Sevastapol, and (2) frees up the rear of any subsequent northern push in the Donbas. I am expecting a Pincer Attack on the Donbas Salient with the supporting attack coming from the south at Donetsk (troops that were fighting at Mariupol) and a strong northern thrust from Izium (troops that were concentrated from the abortive Kiev attacks). Mostly the Russians waiting for the ground to get better and concentrating things for a good, old fashioned "stop us if you can" WW2 Soviet armor and artillery thrust from Izium. It has taken them, so far, from Day 33 to rearrange their troops and get their logistical house in order -- one central push at a time may be all they can efficiently supply. |
| Posted by: magpie 2022-04-18 09:54 |
| #1 The main event has not started but there seems to be a lot of practice fighting going on. Mariupol may be a hollow victory in the media wars, but it is a necessary part of the land corridor to Crimea. |
| Posted by: SteveS 2022-04-18 08:53 |