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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
The demography of war: Russia's insurmountable demographic advantage over Ukraine, explained
2022-03-31
[Institute for Family Studies] The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has already claimed thousands of lives, military and civilian. It is the largest conflict within Europe since World War II, and the first conventional war in Europe to be fought since the Balkan conflicts of the 1990s. While the present conflict has many causes, some of the factors leading to war are linked to population and demography. Arguments and beliefs about population and demography have been marshaled by both sides to justify various political claims, and demography and social science research can inform expectations about the war. The war will itself alter the demographic trajectory of Ukraine and other countries in the area.
An interesting discussion that gets deeper into the topic than we have here thus far, with graphs. A taste:
So what are some relevant population trends in Ukraine and Russia? Here, birth rates are vitally important. Both Russia and Ukraine have low fertility rates, but in recent years, Russia has implemented pro-natal policies that have helped the country avoid extreme fertility declines. In Ukraine on the other hand, a relative lack of family-supportive policies alongside the economic depression and insecurity of war and political upheaval over the last 10-15 years have led to birth rates plummeting to barely over 1 child per woman. For all Ukraine statistics here, I have reconstructed demographic data for the territory actually controlled by Ukraine in each year, accounting for territorial losses.

In other words, the Ukrainian population will shrink by about half over the course of the next generation or two, whereas Russia’s would shrink by just 25%, assuming there is no migration.

Since the fall of communism, Russia has also benefitted from high in-migration from former Soviet countries in Central Asia as migrants from poorer areas move to Russia for work, and ethnic Russians dispersed by the Soviet regime return to Russia. Ukraine, with lower incomes, less of a Soviet-era diaspora, and easier access to Europe, had net out-migration. In recent years, these trends began to reverse, but Ukraine’s high outflows still left it with a sharply falling population.
Posted by:Creremble Crusing8198

#1  Get those people out on farms without access to birth control and television and the population will grow.

Like this: The Homestead Act of 1862

President Abraham Lincoln signed the Homestead Act on May 20, 1862. On January 1, 1863, Daniel Freeman made the first claim under the Act, which gave citizens or future citizens up to 160 acres of public land provided they live on it, improve it, and pay a small registration fee. The Government granted more than 270 million acres of land while the law was in effect.


Cities are good for commerce and industry. Farms are good for food and babies.
Posted by: Abu Uluque   2022-03-31 12:35  

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