Commentary by Russian blogger Andrey Chervonets
[Chervonec] The main goals of the Russian army at the moment
- the main efforts are focused on the encirclement of Kyiv and Kharkov
- Access to the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, creation of a land corridor to the Crimea
- Creation of a bridgehead for movement to Odessa
Now in more detail. so
Southern and Donetsk direction
The Russian Armed Forces advanced yesterday to the city of Voznesensk, which is 80 km northwest of Nikolaev, and entrenched themselves in the settlement of Rakovo, adjacent to Voznesensk. Nearby, in the village of Andreichikovo, a Russian landed, occupied this settlement, gaining a foothold on the western bank of the Southern Bug River.
Nikolaev is blocked. Most likely, if the offensive is not stopped by a temporary truce, the city will be gradually cleared, and the main strike group will go to Odessa. So far, there are no active operations in Odessa and the region - negotiations are underway and the weather is waiting for the landing of amphibious assault forces in the Odessa area. At the moment, landing ships are experiencing bad weather just to the west of Crimea.
Mariupol is blocked and slowly cleared. So far, concentrations and strongholds of the National Battalion are being identified, which are then precisely and effectively destroyed. Today, a silence regime will be established in Mariupol from 10.00 to 17.00 Moscow time, the evacuation of civilians will begin from 12.00.
After the blockade of Mariupol, the troops launched an offensive to the north-west and occupied Pologi, the city of 20 thousand people is an important road junction - 88 km along the highway to Zaporozhye in the west, 17 km from the north - Wild Field, to the east the road to the DPR.
Fighting in Volnovakha.
The city is 3/4 under the DPR army. In the rest of the city, the militants of the national battalion "Donbass" have settled down, they are resisting because they do not count on mercy, but they do not stand on ceremony with them.
In the future, we can expect:
- the advance of the RF Armed Forces towards Zaporozhye, Gulyai Polya and Pavlograd.
- a counter offensive by a Russian group from Balakley.
If successful, a group of a dozen brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is concentrated in the Donetsk and Luhansk directions, will be cut off from the rest of Ukraine. The main forces of the Ukrainian army are located here near Kramatorsk, Slavyansk in the DPR and Lysichansk, Severodnetsk in the LPR.
Central direction
Along Chernihiv and Sumy is nothing new.
Kharkov. Now there are battles for the small town of Dergachi, numbering 20 thousand inhabitants, which is a few kilometers northwest of Kharkov .. As soon as the town can be taken, Kharkov finds itself in a complete tactical environment.
I repeat.: the Russian grouping from the Balakleya region hangs from the north, practically from the rear over the brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, concentrated in the Dobass
Kyiv
From here it is already possible to develop an offensive to the south and cover the capital from the west, but so far relatively quietly. It is not yet clear whether this was caused by the regrouping of Russian forces or negotiations with the Ukrainian side.
Two rounds of negotiations took place, with a third round just around the corner. Kyiv’s negotiators seem to keep promising to take on some kind of framework obligations, but in their traditions, they endlessly delay this moment (it is possible that later they will refuse promises, explaining that they were misunderstood.
Ukrainian TG channels report that the third round of negotiations should bring a truce to Ukraine, and in the next few hours the Parliament will vote behind closed doors documents that will allow de-escalation to begin.
All bills are adopted classified as secret, which is justified by the military situation in the country. At the meeting with the Russian delegation, pasochnye agreements were concluded, which should be ratified by Ukraine. We'll see how this all plays out.
In my personal opinion, anything can be accepted in the Ukrainian parliament. As well as OT to accept back quickly.
Kyiv's goal is to drag out the negotiations and a possible truce as much as possible, and then, as we have seen more than once, simply refuse to fulfill the agreements, arguing that they interpret these agreements in a completely different way and contrary to what is written.