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| Economy |
| Oil prices to reach $51/bbl by 2021, but will remain low through 2029: Fitch Solutions |
| 2020-12-28 |
| [AlAhram] Fitch Solutions expects debt in Gulf States to rise sharply as efforts are elevated globally to transition to a green economy The global economy is expected to return to growth in 2021, yet oil prices will remain below pre-Covid-19 crisis levels for several years ahead, according to Fitch Solutions. In its outlook insights for the global oil market amid the Covid-19 crisis, shared with Ahram Online, Fitch Solutions forecast that Brent prices will only average $51/bbl in 2021, adding that prices will probably pick up gradually, but will remain below the 2010-2014 average until 2029. As a result, Fitch Solutions expects that the fiscal positions of emerging market (EM) governments that are dependent on oil revenues will deteriorate over the coming years, adding that oil prices will remain below the break-even level that major producers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region need to balance their budgets. In this regard, Fitch said that this situation will require structural changes to fiscal and budget management, which could be hard to implement in the short term. On the other hand, Fitch expects that the prolonged period of low oil prices would force governments in the Gulf and elsewhere to accelerate their efforts to raise more tax revenue from the non-oil sector. Accordingly, Fitch expects Gulf States’ debt to rise sharply over the coming decade. Meanwhile, ...back at the revival hall, Buford bit the snake and Eloise began speaking in tongues... global oil consumption is expected to accelerate in 2021 by 3.7 percent as the economy rebounds, according to Fitch Solutions. Yet, Fitch expects that the growth of global demand will slow, falling to less than 0.8 percent per year by the end of the decade — half the rate recorded between 2010 and 2018. "This slowing of demand growth will be driven by a gradual transition towards less carbon-intensive fuels. This process will probably accelerate over the following decades. Even if environmental policies and consumer trends remain unchanged, it is estimated that the world will consume 8.6 percent less oil in 2050 than it did in 2018. Under the firm’s alternate scenarios, demand could fall by between 50 percent and 80 percent by 2050," Fitch said. According to Fitch forecasts, Gulf States are among the few EM oil exporters that will not witness production growth over the coming decade, while the production decline will probably be steepest in Africa, particularly in Algeria, Angola and Chad. The gradual decline of the oil sector, as a driver of economic growth, will not be a major problem if governments manage to diversify their economies and build up new growth engines, according to Fitch. Related: Oil price: 2020-12-21 Iraq devalues its currency by about 20 percent against the dollar Oil price: 2020-12-07 Saudi Arabia raises official January crude oil price Oil price: 2020-11-19 Flashback - Carter's Acceptance of Defeat in 1980 Related: Global economy: 2020-12-24 Interpol: Terrorists Are Using Coronavirus Pandemic to Increase ‘Power and Influence' Global economy: 2020-12-23 Interpol says terrorist groups using COVID-19 to strengthen their power Global economy: 2020-12-02 How Attorney General Bill Barr Built A $40 Million Fortune |
| Posted by:trailing wife |
| #8 Let me throw darts behind my back at a dartboard and give my guess. |
| Posted by: magpie 2020-12-28 17:18 |
| #7 If you mean using the covid to continue to strangle manufacturing and restrict travel wrapped in a green economy bag, then yes. Selling the Soylant Green Economy page - you may be broke and locked in your home, but hey gasoline will be cheap! |
| Posted by: swksvolFF 2020-12-28 15:32 |
| #6 I think once the war breaks out in the Middle East the price will go up and in ways that won't support the Presnident-Elect of Alzheimerica's family's need for graft. |
| Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain 2020-12-28 14:35 |
| #5 Those who support the "green" economy should be educated that mold and rot are green. |
| Posted by: AlanC 2020-12-28 13:00 |
| #4 Looks like gasoline prices may be going up at the pumps? |
| Posted by: JohnQC 2020-12-28 09:56 |
| #3 /\ BINGO your Lordship. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2020-12-28 08:56 |
| #2 Depends on fracking. If Biden starts restrictions oil production goes down and price goes up |
| Posted by: Lord garth 2020-12-28 08:53 |
| #1 Given the way 2020 went, I can predict just as good as the experts. 2021 to 2024 US economy will be like Whale Manurer and that's on the bottom of the ocean. |
| Posted by: NN2N1 2020-12-28 07:24 |