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Home Front: Politix
Biden Drops 8 Points In 3 Weeks In Florida
2020-11-02
[THEFEDERALIST] Joe Foreign Policy Whiz Kid Biden
...Failed seeker of the Democratic presidential nomination on multiple occasions, vice president under Barack Obama, giving it a last try in his dotage for 2020...
 continues to lose ground in Florida, even in polls that have historically been quite favorable to him. Biden’s most favorable pollster in the Sunshine State is Quinnipiac, which just three weeks ago claimed Biden held an 11-point lead. Its latest poll has shown President Donald Trump
...Perhaps no man has ever had as much fun being president of the US...
 gaining 2 points and Biden losing 6 points, dropping Biden to a 3-point lead.By comparison, Quinnipiac’s final Florida polls in 2018 showed Democrats winning both the Senate and governor races by a 7-point margin. In fact, the Republicans narrowly won both races.

The most recent Susquehanna poll also showed a significant drop for Biden. Near the end of September, Susquehanna had him up 3 points but their most recent poll has Trump leading by 4 points.

Recent polls either show Trump leading by 3, 4, or 4 points — or Biden leading by 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, or 6 points.

Earlier this month, Biden had as much as a 4.5-point lead in the RealClearPolitics average of Florida state polls. Now he’s down to just 1.2 points. Still, he’s doing, about 1.2 points better than Crooked Hillary Clinton
...former first lady, former secretary of state, former presidential candidate, Conqueror of Benghazi, Heroine of Tuzla, formerly described by her supporters as the smartest woman in the world, usually described by the rest of us as The Thing That Wouldn't Go Away. Politix is not one of her talents, but it's something she keeps trying to do...
 was at this point in the 2016 race. She ended up losing that race by 1.2 points, about one point more than she was projected to lose it by, in the RealClearPolitics average.



Posted by:Fred

#12  The only reliable pollster is Trafgar Grouo, which corrects for the biases suffered by the other pollsters (nonresponse, inaccurate weighting, bad sampling etc).

Trafalgar has Trump winning Ohio easily and up by a clear, though narrow, margin in every one of the other battlegrounds: up by ~3 in MI, NC, FL, and AZ.

If Trump wins PA and FL and OH, and takes either AZ or NC, then he only needs one more midwestern battleground state -- MI or WI or MN -- to win with high-270s EC votes.
Posted by: Chavimp Spawn of the Weak4469   2020-11-02 18:47  

#11  Joe was never ahead in Florida. The polls were lies. Now that the one and only opportunity to measure polls against data is coming up, they are being adjusted closer to reality, and afterward the pollsters will brag about how accurate they were.
Posted by: Iblis   2020-11-02 17:08  

#10  Florida is already counting mail in ballots as they did in 2016 and will likely be one of the first States to announce results. Polls close there at 7 ET in most of the State and 8 pm ET in the west panhandle. I think that in 2016 they announced Trump as the winner by about 9pm. Of course that year the mail in vote was about half of what it is this year.
Posted by: Lord Garth   2020-11-02 16:14  

#9  Joe never had the support. The polls are fake. Now they show a "tightening" race so they can still claim a bit of credibility when Trump wins in a landslide.
Posted by: Abu Uluque   2020-11-02 11:39  

#8  8 in three weeks? That's nothing! Hunter's been known to drop 6 in one night, and... wait. We're talking about the election, aren't we?
Posted by: ed in texas   2020-11-02 10:56  

#7  I would not assume democrats are always voting for their party. A large number are voting Trump.
Posted by: Cleting Closh2157   2020-11-02 08:05  

#6  at least 50% of the votes are already cast in FL

Many states require your party affiliation so you vote in the right primary. If you early vote or request a ballot they know your affiliation and can assume you are voting for your party. That means Republicans did a lot of early voting. Now if you poll the Democrats who actually returned a ballot you can get a guesstimate on the actual voting (not just what they are registered as). I assume those guesstimates are interesting.
Posted by: 3dc   2020-11-02 06:41  

#5  ^And if they were cast by mail, we know that they'll say.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2020-11-02 03:43  

#4  at least 50% of the votes are already cast in FL

I wonder how this is accounted for in polls.
Posted by: Lord Garth   2020-11-02 03:28  

#3  /\ Yes, prime time expectation management.
Posted by: Besoeker   2020-11-02 03:00  

#2  Gotta roll back some of that fake polling before the election, you know. Can't be seen doing a poor job. The NY Slimes promised they would do better after the 2016 election and this is what they meant, I guess.
Posted by: gorb   2020-11-02 01:53  

#1  It's not that he is losing ground. Joe's appeal is becoming more selective.
Posted by: SteveS   2020-11-02 00:59  

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