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| Home Front: Politix |
| Trump leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, gaining in Wisconsin, Nevada |
| 2020-10-30 |
| [Arutz 7] - President Donald Trump has pulled into the lead in several key battleground states, and has cut into former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead in at least two more, according to polling data released by the Trafalgar Group. Trafalgar, which correctly predicted the outcome in Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2016 and again in the midterm elections in Florida and North Carolina in 2018, released a series of polls this week, spanning six critical battleground states. In three of the states, the polls found that Donald Trump now leads Joe Biden including in Pennsylvania, where Trafalgar polls had previously shown Biden ahead of the president. The latest Pennsylvania poll gives Trump a narrow lead of 0.8 points, a 3.1-point swing compared to the mid-October poll which showed Biden leading by 2.3 points. If the election were held today, Trump would carry the state 48.4% to 47.6%, the poll found, nearly identical to Trump’s margin of victory in the state four years ago. In Florida, Trump expanded his lead in the Trafalgar poll, going from a 2.3-point margin in mid-October to a 2.7-point lead, 49.6% to 46.9%. Trump made even greater gains in Michigan, expanding his narrow 0.6-point lead in mid-October to a 2.5-point lead, beating Biden 49.1% to 46.6%. In two other battleground states, Biden retained a lead, despite Trump gaining on the former Vice President. Earlier this month, Biden led Trump by 1.3 points in Wisconsin, a state Trump won four years ago. Now, Biden holds just a 0.4-point lead, besting Trump 47.5% to 47.1%. In Nevada, a state Hillary Clinton carried by 2.42 points in 2016, Trump now trails Biden by just 2.3 points, 47.1% to Biden’s 49.4%. Only in Minnesota has Biden seen his lead over Trump stabilize. In the last Trafalgar poll in the state, conducted in August, Biden led Trump by less than one point. Now, Biden holds a 3.2-point lead, 48.0% to 44.8%. |
| Posted by:g(r)omgoru |
| #6 Near election day independents break towards the incumbent. Of course a cynic might say that the pollsters take their thumb off the scales at this point as not to look like liars. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2020-10-30 17:23 |
| #5 Margin of cheating varies but is probably around 5% Normally yes, but we need to assume something in the 20-30% range this time. |
| Posted by: charger 2020-10-30 16:00 |
| #4 Margin of cheating varies but is probably around 5% in many places, so be sure to vote, and in person, not by mail. |
| Posted by: Glenmore 2020-10-30 15:16 |
| #3 Early voting ends on Friday, October 30 in Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, Nevada, Texas. Some counties will finish up in Florida, North Carolina, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Virginia, and West Virginia tomorrow. Look for shutdown shenanigans in any blue/purple state threatening to go Trump starting even today. |
| Posted by: charger 2020-10-30 14:47 |
| #2 Given how partisan the media is, give Trump 5-10 points in every poll and that may be closer to reality. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2020-10-30 14:16 |
| #1 Bwahahahhahahahhaaaaaa... MSN homepage has Biden up in all those states. Preparing the battlespace for the stolen election canard... |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2020-10-30 12:42 |