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| -Signs, Portents, and the Weather- |
| After Repeated Failures, It's Time To Permanently Dump Epidemic Models |
| 2020-05-06 |
| [Issues&Insights] |
| Posted by:Lex |
| #8 Hey, what's Don King up to? He was big in the numbers racket. Maybe he can assist in some way. |
| Posted by: DooDahMan 2020-05-06 17:42 |
| #7 Yes, tools. And the world's politicians are in full on "all I've got is this hammer" mode. |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2020-05-06 16:00 |
| #6 Models are tools. A good model is the most valuable thing there is. If fact, the things you think of as Laws of Nature are just models. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2020-05-06 15:28 |
| #5 Said it before and I'll say it again. Models = Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics. |
| Posted by: AlanC 2020-05-06 15:16 |
| #4 Those are my Groucho Marx |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2020-05-06 13:08 |
| #3 Only one significant model appears to have been correct. But wasn’t. The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has actually been dramatically reduced and reduced. Until, a few days ago, its projected death toll nearly doubled. Model upgrades, they said. |
| Posted by: Bobby 2020-05-06 12:42 |
| #2 Models do not predict the future. They tell you what *might* happen *if* your *assumptions* are correct. |
| Posted by: Iblis 2020-05-06 10:03 |
| #1 |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2020-05-06 09:31 |