| From April 1. Long, with lots of graphs and discussion of their content. A key point: |
[Medium] Republican-controlled states have had a huge advantage: They have seen what has happened to their Democratic-controlled brethren, but because they are on average more rural, the coronavirus took time to reach them. But it will reach them. Some rural states, like Alaska or Idaho, have taken advantage of this delay. Others, like Oklahoma, Mississippi or Missouri, are not taking enough measures to contain the virus: It will continue spreading invisibly, infecting the people of these states.The older you are, the more likely you are to both vote Republican and die from the coronavirus. Voters aged 80+ are 80 times more likely to die from the coronavirus than those under 40 (16% fatality rate vs. ~0.2%).
This effect is strong enough that people who voted for Trump in the 2016 election are around 30% more likely to die from the coronavirus than Democrats. In some swing states from the 2016 election, such as Pennsylvania, if the coronavirus were to run wild, this effect alone could have wiped out up to 30% of the gap between Republicans and Democrats in the 2016 election.