A devastating electricity blackout swept over Venezuela late last week, crippling daily life for much of the country. PDVSA’s oil exports have been severely disrupted, and while data is scarce, output may have plunged by half to about 500,000 bpd, according to Energy Aspects. "Operations halted at main facilities, reducing output of main synthetic grades and blended Merey to almost zero," Energy Aspects wrote in a note.
"There’s a vicious circle," the International Energy Agency’s head Fatih Birol told Bloomberg on the sidelines of the IHS CERAWeek Conference in Houston. "Since the oil isn’t exported, there’s not revenue, since there’s not revenue you cannot invest in infrastructure."
The big question is how long the outage will last. The U.S. State Department announced the withdrawal of its remaining embassy personnel in Caracas. That could reduce the potential for conflict, since any incursion on American personnel could be used as a pretext for an escalation, possibly even military intervention. However, the withdrawal cuts both ways. Removing American diplomats could get them out of harm’s way, clearing the way for bolder action. Worryingly, U.S. Secretary of State justified the withdrawal by saying that keeping them in Venezuela had become a "constraint" on U.S. policy.
The outages have global implications. Oil prices surged at the start of the week, with WTI jumping above $57 per barrel, and Brent above $67 per barrel.