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| Iraq |
| The "War after ISIS" begins in Iraq |
| 2017-10-16 |
| [ISW] Key Takeaway: A battle is underway between the Iraqi Government, backed by Iran, and Iraqi Kurds for control of Kirkuk, Iraq. Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), Counterterrorism Services (CTS), Federal Police, and Iranian-backed popular mobilization forces (PMF) launched a combined offensive with intent to seize the K1 military base, the Kirkuk airport, and Kirkuk’s oilfields from Kurdish Peshmerga forces at 2:00 a.m. on October 15th. The offensive follows two days of failed negotiations after the government of Iraq (GOI), backed by Iran, demanded Kurdish forces withdraw. US efforts to de-escalate failed. Iran’s role in the offensive further strengthens its influence within Iraq, sidelines the U.S., and will increase Arab Shiite popular support for Iranian-backed candidates in Iraq’s upcoming elections, currently scheduled for April 2018. Iran’s use of an Explosively Formed Penetrator (EFP) against U.S. forces in Salah al Din Province, southwest of Kirkuk, on October 1 likely signals Iran’s resolve to use force to deter the U.S. from taking a direct military role. ISW is monitoring the situation and will provide regular updates. What happened: Elements from a combined force of Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), Counterterrorism Services (CTS), Federal Police, and Iranian-backed popular mobilization forces (PMF) south of Kirkuk City launched a probing attack against Peshmerga forces southwest of Kirkuk at 2:00 a.m. on October 15th. The Iranian-backed units include the Badr Organization’s Turkmen Brigade (the 16th PMU brigade) and three brigades from Asai’b Ahl al-Haq (the 41st, 42nd and 43rd PMU brigades). Clashes are ongoing in the industrial zone southwest of Kirkuk City at the time of writing. Context: The Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and the government of Iraq (GoI) have been in a standoff after the KRG held a referendum on September 25, 2017 to affirm its right to declare independence. The governments of Iraq, Iran, and Turkey have strongly opposed the Kurdish referendum and took action to compel the KRG to stop short of declaring independence.The Iraqi Supreme Court declared the referendum illegal on September 18th, pending legal review. The Iraqi government and Iran both prohibited flights to Kurdistan. Iraq held military exercises with Iran along the latter’s border with Iraqi Kurdistan on October 1 and conducted symbolic military exercises with Turkey on September 26 in order to demonstrate solidarity against the referendum. Iraq’s Council of Representatives (CoR) voted on September 27 to authorize Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al Abadi to retake Kirkuk and its oil fields, prompting a Kurdish boycott of the CoR. |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #10 The US, and the West in general, have zero national interest in Iraq. We should stay out of it, until and unless their government develops an interest in weapons of mass destruction and/or threatens other allies and peaceful countries, such as Israel. The Kurds do seem more reasonable and aligned with some Western values, but we don't really know -- note that they're basically led by communists in Turkey. One could make a case for selling them weapons to push Turkey, Syria, Iran, and Iraq to their heels. The West has three interests in the Middle East: help Israel defend itself, the only free country there (give undiluted moral support, sell weapons, free trade); crush Iran; demand that the Saudis to dis-own the Wahhabis, or else cut them off. For all other groups or states in that region, including Northern Africa: cut off all relationships, or crush them if they suggest or support any attack on the West. Other than that we have no rational interest in that part of the world; let it fall back to poverty, depravity, and barbarism until they figure out better and start to use reason instead of force. |
| Posted by: si vis pacem, para bellum 2017-10-16 20:50 |
| #9 When do we get off the fecking wheel? I know lots of people like it and make money off it, but the American taxpayer and the American parent are being ripped off... |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2017-10-16 13:44 |
| #8 Because Klingons. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2017-10-16 11:42 |
| #7 How do you know the US isn't aiding the Kurds? |
| Posted by: jvalentour 2017-10-16 11:40 |
| #6 The Kurds screwed themselves. They were warned this would not end well. Is the US supposed to bomb Baghdad on behalf of the Kurds? Force open up a route to the sea though Iraq, Iran, Turkey or Syria? I know, American troops can escort Kurdish oil tankers to Israel and imports to Erbil. Who would object to that? |
| Posted by: Omogum Ulaviger9966 2017-10-16 10:20 |
| #5 Pff, like Trump is in charge of Middle East policy. The Deep State is running things, it's business as usual. |
| Posted by: Harcourt Angoluting9366 2017-10-16 09:14 |
| #4 Long story short: The Kurds just got screwed by their only ally, the US. Let's see what President Trump says and does today. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2017-10-16 08:43 |
| #3 Long story short: The Kurds just got screwed by their only ally, the US. It's traditional |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2017-10-16 08:22 |
| #2 in the recent anti ISIS battles, the Kurds have fought better than the Iraqis however, the Kurds do not, I think, have any air force and the Iraqis do |
| Posted by: lord garth 2017-10-16 07:59 |
| #1 Long story short: The Kurds just got screwed by their only ally, the US. |
| Posted by: Injun Bucket8891 2017-10-16 07:25 |