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| Spengler: My Prediction: A Cruz-Rubio Ticket |
| 2015-10-14 |
| Republican voters think the economy is the number one issue but can't manage a public discussion on economic policy, as I observed Oct. 4 ("Who are you, and what have you done with the Republican Party?"). They flail at hot-button issues, defunding Planned Parenthood, for example, and look for scapegoats such as illegal Mexican immigrants (whose numbers are actually falling). It seems pointless to make predictions of any sort in the midst of the moral equivalent of a riot, but nonetheless I will go out on a limb: the Republicans will nominate Sen. Ted Cruz as president and Sen. Marco Rubio as vice-president, by process of elimination. This conclusion seems inevitable by process of elimination. The voters are in a surly, rebellious mood and display their anger by telling pollsters they will vote for anti-Establishment candidates who never have held office (Trump, Carson, Fiorina, Paul). ...The four anti-Establishment candidates together command 58% of Republican preferences, according to the CBS poll. But it is unlikely that the party ultimately will nominate any of them. They simply are too volatile, too inexperienced and too labile to carry a presidential campaign. If that assumption is correct (and it is a big assumption), then that 58% will have to go somewhere else. We can array the Republican candidates in a Venn diagram, with two regions denoting "experience" (holders of high political office) vs. the rebels. There is one name and one name only in the intersection of the two Venn diagrams, namely Cruz: he is perceived as anti-Establishment, but he has held high office at the state and national level. Cruz is the likeliest person to inherit the 58% anti-Establishment vote once the Trump-Carson-Fiorina euphoria fades. It's noteworthy that Cruz polls strongest among elected officials in the Republican race, at 9% this morning vs. 5% in September. Most of his gain appears to have come at the expense of former Gov. Mike Huckabee, which suggests that conservative evangelicals are consolidating their efforts around Sen. Cruz. The Republicans need a candidate with anti-Establishment credentials. A Jeb Bush ticket would risk defections to third-party challengers. Cruz, moreover, has the strongest organization on the ground among all the Republican candidates. CBS news reported last week that he raised $12.2 million in the third quarter, more than twice the $6 million raised by Sen. Marco Rubio. Ben Carson, to be sure, raised about $20 million, but Carson simply will not be the candidate. The average Cruz donation was just $66, and the Texas senator has a strong grassroots organization, perhaps the strongest of any of the Republican candidates. |
| Posted by:g(r)omgoru |
| #8 I agree about Jeb, but I still couldn't vote for Hillary or Sanders. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2015-10-14 22:23 |
| #7 Please CF, think of the consequences. Have someone else hold your nose, just or a bit. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2015-10-14 21:04 |
| #6 You are probably right about the republicans beng blamed anyway. But I just can't hold my nose and vote for Jeb just because he had a 'R' behind his name. I would probably stay home. |
| Posted by: CrazyFool 2015-10-14 21:02 |
| #5 Spengler (Goldman) has worked this out via flawless reasoning. Of course, both 'flawless' and 'reasoning' are foreign concepts where the Republican Party is concerned. |
| Posted by: ed in texas 2015-10-14 19:29 |
| #4 So you would then assure we had the least capable person in charge when TSHTF. I'm not so sure about that. But the point is the money men backing guys like Bush need to understand that people are not going to vote for him...even if it means Hildebeest in the White House because there is no discernible difference between them. It's all over for the GOP if they can't see that. No more Tweedledee/Tweedledum. No more Bush/Clinton/Clinton/Bush. Not if there's gonna be amnesty, plastic crap from China, fighting wars for Arabs and $20 trillion debt. Not just no. HELL NO. |
| Posted by: Ebbang Uluque6305 2015-10-14 18:51 |
| #3 "TSHTF it blows back on them." The world doesn't work that way. Hard core libs won't blame their own they'll blame Republicans no matter how pathetic they have to stretch to do so. So you would then assure we had the least capable person in charge when TSHTF. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2015-10-14 14:22 |
| #2 That would be a real novelty. Of course the Media will be pushing Jeb very hard and tear down anyone else by hook or by crook. They know that if they can get Jeb on the Trunk ticket then Hillary or Sanders would be an almost shoe in. I would never vote for Jeb. May as well vote for Hillary so when TSHTF it blows back on them. |
| Posted by: CrazyFool 2015-10-14 13:44 |
| #1 I could actually vote for a Republican ticket without holding my nose! |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2015-10-14 12:44 |