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Home Front: WoT
Why Lone Wolf Attacks Are So Hard To Predict
2015-07-23
[DefenseOne] An FBI analysis of his Google search engine queries revealed a growing interest in martyrdom. In 2013, he reportedly downloaded several videos of Al Qaeda cleric Anwar al-Awlaki. His most extreme writings related to Islam come in the form of two religious posts not long before the shooting. They cite martyrdom as a goal but give no explicit indication of an impending attack. The FBI is continuing to investigate Abdulazeez's social media presence, looking for communication exchanges between Abdulazeez and members of known groups like the Islamic State. But none have the fact that no such communication indicators have emerged so far, and that suggests that they likely won't any time soon.

In retrospect, those various actions and clues may suggest a terrorist ready to pop. And that's the danger of retrospective analysis. Even those indicators that have the appearance of being indicative don't speak to a cause of violence. Rather, they are unremarkable behaviors that are correlated with a violent incident. (Many people, including Defense One reporters, have seen videos featuring Anwar al-Awlaki and yet have resisted homicidal behavior.) The amount of open-source data available to law enforcement, or journalists, makes correlational analysis easier, but not necessarily more valid.
Posted by:Blossom Unains5562

#9  I don't like to talk about TGAs for obvious reasons, the Welsh problem.
Posted by: Shipman   2015-07-23 17:19  

#8  Block 10.a. Ethnicity

HUD forms ask the same battery of questions, and in the same order.
Posted by: Mullah Richard   2015-07-23 16:15  

#7  #5 Block 10.a. Ethnicity

(__) Tragic Genealogy Accident
Posted by: Zenobia Floger6220   2015-07-23 15:30  

#6  1. Cross-index security clearance rejections with foreign names would seem to be a good place to start. Interview each such case under the guise of making sure discrimination did not occur. Might just find something (or scare the bad guys out of trying to get into security clearance jobs).

2. Monitor everyone coming out of certain Mosques. Perhaps even close the mosque and search the site for toxins that are causing so many people to go Jihadi for no reason. Since the preacher-guy is most likely to have a heavy dose he might require a thorough hospitalization and battery of tests to ensure his health and welfare.
Posted by: rjschwarz   2015-07-23 14:29  

#5  
Posted by:    2015-07-23 12:48  

#4  The fact that Abdulazee traveled to Jordan for several months in 2014 and returned should have invited a visit from the FBI to inquire about his extended trip to an Islamic country. That visit might have been enough to trigger his paranoia about being watched and discouraged further considerations of jihad. Maybe ATF Form 4473 (Firearms Transaction Form) should ask if you are a Muslim?
Posted by: JohnQC   2015-07-23 11:51  

#3  The "Great" FDR solved that problem by removing the need to predict. The only internment camp the progressives are eyeing is one for the Tea Party et al. See - Dinesh D'Souza
Posted by: Procopius2k   2015-07-23 08:38  

#2  It's because the Amish live out in the rural areas. If they were brought into the metropolitan areas, they'd be so much easier to control.
Posted by: Pappy   2015-07-23 08:02  

#1  Because the d*mn Buddhists are secretive?
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2015-07-23 05:23  

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