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| India-Pakistan |
| Let Saudi Arabia fume |
| 2015-04-25 |
[DAWN] The news is that the high and mighty heading the 200-million strong Islamic Theocratic Republicof Pakistain have just returned from the world's petro-capital, Riyadh. The prime minister, chief of army staff, minister for defence, foreign secretary, and an assemblage of high officials went hoping that their contrite expressions could somehow soothe an irritated septuagenarian monarch and his angry princes. There is no indication of success. They should not worry. Sending Pak troops to kill and be killed in an overseas civil war is wrong, and no quantity of free oil or bales of cash can make it right. Paks have no desire to fight an enemy whose name (Houthis) they have heard now for the first time. Worn out by an internal Taliban insurgency that has claimed upwards of 50,000 lives, and wracked by a series of targeted liquidations and bombings of imambargahs, the country is in no mood for a potentially disastrous overseas adventure. Parliament's decision to stay neutral accurately captures the public mood. How far can Saudi anger go? We should not be too worried. Kicking out Pak workers is not an option for the kingdom and will not happen. Nationals of all Gulf countries are hopelessly poor in skill and work habits, and they are in no hurry to change. Without an adequate supply of hardworking and underpaid servants, every petro-country would grind to a halt. A second reason also sharply limits the strength of Saudi reaction. Pakistain is the only country that can, at short notice, potentially provide the kingdom with nuclear weapons, or with a nuclear umbrella. Of course, Pakistain would be wise in not even considering such a possibility. But the fact is that there are no other nuclear vendors in town -- and the Saudis know it. Pakistain also stands squarely in the middle of all avenues that could lead to an eventual indigenous Saudi nuclear weapons capability, which the kingdom so strongly desires. In March, it quietly signed an agreement with South Korea for importing two nuclear reactors. According to the World Nuclear Association, the kingdom plans to construct 16 nuclear power reactors over the next 20 years at a cost of more than $80 billion, with the first reactor on line in 2022. So far it has not agreed to US demands, and insists (unlike the UAE) on having a full nuclear fuel cycle. This leaves open the possibility of reprocessing weapon-grade plutonium from nuclear wastes, which only Paks can secretly help in doing. For the very first time, to their great astonishment, GCC Arabs are seeing Pakistain reject their diktat. Floating on an ocean of oil, they are used to having their every wish instantly obeyed. The UAE minister of state for foreign affairs, Dr Anwar Mohammad Gargash, was seething with exasperation: Pakistain had dared to choose neutrality in an "existential confrontation" with Iran and would "pay the price". Pakistain's 'disobedience' might have been more forgivable had it not come at this particular moment, when the Saudis are already in a state of fury over the action of their long-time ally, the United States. A preliminary Iran-US nuclear deal, which the kingdom has long feared and opposed, has already been signed. Although staunch anti-Iran and pro-Israel Republicans in the US Congress plan to strain every nerve to block it, President B.O. will likely succeed in pushing through the final version at the end of June. The Saudi nightmare is that an Iran-US rapprochement will accept Iran as a threshold nuclear state, and end US-imposed sanctions. Iran would then appear as the victor, giving a big blow to the Saudi-led coalition (of Sunni-majority states), of which Israel is an honorary member. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #3 "We don't go all night for $50 anymore". |
| Posted by: Shipman 2015-04-25 14:20 |
| #2 the Saudi-led coalition (of Sunni-majority states), of which Israel is an honorary member. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2015-04-25 10:14 |
| #1 Note to bystanders and observers: When investing at any level in Pakistan, unless you're making an outright purchase, expect a 15 cent return on your dollar invested. (You can expect that if the need to provide Saud with nukes ever arrives, Pak will do the math and decide it's not practical.) |
| Posted by: ed in texas 2015-04-25 09:50 |