Despite Israeli threats of a strike on Iran if world powers fail to halt its nuclear drive at talks entering an endgame in Vienna, experts see the sabre-rattling as largely diplomatic brinkmanship.| The 'experts' don't know Bibi too well, do they... |
Israel, the region's sole if undeclared nuclear-armed state, sees itself as the first potential target if Iran develops an atomic bomb, and has warned against striking what it describes as a "bad deal" with Tehran.
If an agreement is signed that leaves Iran on the threshold of becoming a nuclear power, "we will preserve all options and all our rights to do what we see fit to defend Israel," Intelligence Minister Yuval Steinitz said this week.
But Israel "does not want war", said Emily Landau, director of an arms control project at Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Centre for Strategic Studies. "By brandishing the threat of military intervention Israel is counting on the deterrent effect," she said.
| Israel, alone amongst western powers these days, seems to understand that a deterrent isn't a deterrent unless your enemy is convinced you'll do it. I think the Israelis will do it if diplomacy fails, and I think the Iranians know it. |
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has previously warned that a "bad" nuclear deal which leaves Iran with the capability to enrich uranium would be "catastrophic" and worse than no deal at all.
Israeli media in March carried an apparently leaked report saying that Netanyahu and Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon had ordered the military to earmark a budget reserve of nearly $3 billion for a possible offensive against Iranian nuclear facilities.
In public, Yaalon took a swipe at Israel's US ally.
"The United States began negotiations with the Iranians, but unfortunately in what became a Persian bazaar, Iranians are the best," he said.
| That's not a swipe, that's pretty darned accurate... |
"For the past year the Americans haven't talked about the military option," he said. "If the negotiations are extended, of which there is a strong chance, Israel cannot allow itself to go into action alone while the Americans continue discussions with the Iranians."
"Israel has the capacity to delay the Iranian nuclear programme by several years, but not to reduce it to nothing," he said.
| Don't be too sure of that. Air strikes, covert ops, and assassinations could put the Iranian effort behind long enough for "other things" to happen in Iran. Support for the Mad Mullahsâ„¢ is and has been an inch deep... |
"In the event that an agreement is reached Israel will not be able to attack a country that has an accord with the United States."
Analysts say Israel has the military capabilities to strike Iran if it wants to, and is also bolstering its missile defences. In 2007, Israeli planes are believed to have struck an undeclared Syrian nuclear facility although the Jewish state never confirmed its involvement.
In September this year, Israel said it had successfully conducted a joint test with the United States of an upgraded Arrow 2 ballistic missile interception system over the Mediterranean Sea. The system, designed to counter long-range missiles, has successfully intercepted missiles similar to Iran's Shihab-3 in a variety of test conditions.
"Israel has the means to attack and cause severe damage to Iran," said Ephraim Halevy, a former head of the Mossad intelligence agency which experts say has been pursuing covert operations against Iranian nuclear scientists.
"But the real military option is the United States, with its troops, its navy and air force deployed in the Gulf."
"The ideal for both Israel and the United States would be to win the game by showing their strength without actually using it," he added.
| That would require a U.S. president who understands the above-cited definition of deterrence... |