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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
The Kurds Rise From the Ashes
2014-11-19
by Michael J. Totten

[WorldAffairsJournal] Syria no longer exists.
News for you Mike: Lebanon and Libya also no longer exist, and for the same reasons Syria no longer exists. Iraq is trying really, really hard to follow Syria down that sewer pipe, and Egypt is taking notes...
The tyrannical regime of Bashar al-Assad governs parts of what’s left of it. The psychopathic Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) controls another large swath. Small scraps of territory are ruled by sundry other militias which, more likely than not, will eventually be absorbed by Assad or ISIS.

Up north the Kurds have carved out a proto state of their own which they call Rojava. It is being violently squeezed by ISIS from the south, and it’s jammed up against the wall of the Turkish border to the north. It is split into three besieged non-contiguous cantons, the most endangered of which is based around the city of Kobani.

Yet Syrian Kurdistan, spliced and diced though it may be, stubbornly continues existing...

Saving or fixing all of Syria is impossible, but a partial victory is better than nothing. If you doubt this, consider how Seoul would look today if North Korea had swallowed the south at the end of the Korean War.

What’s happening in Syria is an echo of what happened in Iraq during the 1990s and 2000s. The Kurds first broke away from Saddam Hussein’s totalitarian rule, then shored up their defenses against Al Qaeda in Iraq, the precursor to ISIS that the Kurds in Syria are facing today.

What the Kurds achieved in Iraq is permanent. Never again will that region be lorded over by Baghdad. Its independence from Iraq has been achieved in all but name. It’s a fait accompli. Nor will ISIS ever control it. The Kurds will fight ISIS with kitchen knives and even their own teeth if they have to...

There is nothing holy about borders in the Middle East or anywhere else. Kosovo recently broke off from Serbia. Scotland nearly split from the United Kingdom earlier this year. Abkhazia told Georgia to sod off. Almost everyone on earth thinks the Palestinians will have their own state in the West Bank and Gaza at some point.
The Czechs and the Slovaks managed to get an amiable divorce and even worked out the alimony. It doesn't always have to be bloody...
The only plausible things standing in the way of a permanent de-facto independent Kurdish state called Rojava at this point are ISIS, the Assad regime, and the Turks. Two of those three will eventually cease to exist.

There can be no peace in the Eastern Mediterranean until the Assad regime and the ISIS are both erased from the face of the earth, but the Kurdish regions can be saved and strengthened right now and used as beachheads—or at the very least buffer zones—in the future.
And then -- the Turks? Tell the Kurds how you're (more correctly, they're) going to manage that one...
Posted by:Beavis

#11  Thank you JohnQC.

For the women in that area, it is either, fight, die, or become a slave.

Posted by: Ebbomosh Hupemp2664   2014-11-19 17:10  

#10  are young men and women, fearless, armed and smiling all the way to liberty or death.

Could use more of that spirit in the U.S.

Thanks so much for your postings Ebbomosh Hupemp2664!
Posted by: JohnQC   2014-11-19 15:44  

#9  They rise from the mud, too. The newest generation of Kurds, are young men and women, fearless, armed and smiling all the way to liberty or death.



A young woman shot in the abdomen in Kobane who was taken to a recovery location across the border in Turkey said "the hills around Kobane are liberated. If I survive I will return to fight and die in Kobane." She died of her wounds the next day.
Posted by: Ebbomosh Hupemp2664   2014-11-19 14:25  

#8  On the other hand, the vast number of Han Chinese have a historically vested interest in seeing that Middle Kingdom minorities kowtow to the Dragon Throne. Tens of millions of Han Chinese have perished miserably when that interest was not asserted properly, and they do remember. It's not all about oligarchies.
Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418    2014-11-19 13:58  

#7  The turks cannot stop them short of Saddam style nerve gas and genocide actions.
Genocide is a long-established method of asserting Turkish rule. One of the "fit in or else" rules.
Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418    2014-11-19 13:55  

#6  Doc Steve, in theodern era, the conform or else doesn't work against such a large number and large segment of a society, especially if the have support over a border in a sanctuary area like Iraq Kurdistan. Also the Kurds are long established as a rebel or revolutionary force, well organized. The turks cannot stop them short of Saddam style nerve gas and genocide actions.

The Kurds themselves are already planning for the Turks. Not saying much more than mountainous terrain is very helpful for hiding stockpiles etc
Posted by: OldSpook   2014-11-19 11:48  

#5  What happens to the Kurds when Turkey re-establishes the empire?

Why, what happens to every minority in an empire. Fit in or else.

The Hapbsburgs, the French, the Hohenzollerns, the Russians, and so on ran empires that way. There was a vested interest in ensuring that minorities headed the rule of the Czar/Kaiser/King, and the King has a vested interest in ensuring that all the minorities managed tolerably.

That's what would happen if the Turks reestablished the borders of the late Ottoman Empire -- say to include most of Lebanon, Syria and upper Iraq. A 21st century Empire can't oppress too badly, especially close to Europe (note Putin's cunning and calculation here). But it will have ways to ensure that the minorities behave or else.
Posted by: Steve White   2014-11-19 10:59  

#4   a large minority of Turkey's population is Kurdish, including a majority in the SE part of the country.

About a quarter of the national population, as I recall, but the quarter with double the birthrate of the rest of the country, ie. well above replacement instead of below replacement. All they need do is wait a generation or so, and they'll be the majority. That is what has Erdogan, etc.
Posted by: trailing wife   2014-11-19 10:05  

#3  I think that the Turks are fanning these flames with a long view to a reestablishment of an Ottoman type state encompassing parts of Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. What happens to the Kurds then???

Of course Obola probably sees himself taking over the Sultan's role.
Posted by: AlanC   2014-11-19 08:43  

#2  Kurds need the Kurdish areas in Turkey incorporated into their territory. And that's what has Erdogan pissing his harem pants. a large minority of Turkey's population is Kurdish, including a majority in the SE part of the country.
Posted by: OldSpook   2014-11-19 02:32  

#1  It is being reported today that an ISIS unit was told they were going to Kobane. 9 members of the unit deserted and fled across the border to Turkey.
Posted by: Ebbomosh Hupemp2664   2014-11-19 00:24  

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