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| -Signs, Portents, and the Weather- | |
| Network Theory and Ebola | |
| 2014-10-17 | |
Here is a video on an academic paper that presents network theory and how to use it for a contagious disease. Interesting to think about with Ebola. Especially now that a second hospital worker in Dallas has it-and many more (up to 70) were exposed. This video models outbreaks in regions with poor health infrastructure.
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| Posted by:trailing wife |
| #7 The network models should properly account for the rate of survivors becoming immune vs the rate of transmission to new victims. When this is set properly, there is little chance this epidemic will infect more than a few million people. Refer to my comments in September about ebola transmission. Here is one from the 20th. #12 it shouldn't be too bad outside of west Africa, because if even one case turns up there, hundreds of people will respond to suppress transmission and trace contacts. in west Africa though, there is no one left to respond. so it will spread until the proportion of the population immune to ebola is about the reciprocal of the retransmission rate, which is two. so two-thirds of the people will get this and half of those will become immune before it is done. this sort of exponential phenomena is what did in fukashima. once it got too hot, there was no way to stop it. and in my opinion, Liberia is already too hot. some of these other countries are pretty hot but it is still too close to call. |
| Posted by: rammer 2014-10-17 13:53 |
| #6 Let's hear it for cats. |
| Posted by: Ebbang Uluque6305 2014-10-17 12:11 |
| #5 The size of the mice ball would be self limiting once it achieved the mass necessary to create a black hole. |
| Posted by: gorb 2014-10-17 11:40 |
| #4 i hope they are working on that vaccine Lots of people are now working on vaccines, dear anon1, among them a group in Israel. In the meantime, get your flu shot, wash your hands every two hours with soap, and don't touch your face near your eyes, nose, and mouth (the T zone) to reduce your chance of all infections. Perhaps stock up on three weeks worth of food supplies, in case you need to be quarantined... |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2014-10-17 10:47 |
| #3 A1, the problem with those calculations is that they can never take into account the environmental changes caused by the spread. Theoretically IIRC the way mice breed would produce a ball the size of the earth in 2 years IF the breeding continued at the same rate. There's no way that 1.5 billion people will be "in the line of fire" in the next year. The environment will change, but how? |
| Posted by: AlanC 2014-10-17 07:44 |
| #2 thanks trailing wife , lovely lovely TW my calculations say that if it continues to grow at the rate it was before the WHO stopped publishing "new infection" data Then the month of January 2016 will see 1.5 billion new cases. NEW - not existing or dead... new. There are now 7.125 billion people in the world. Every one of them will be infected by the end of March 2016. half will die. i hope they are working on that vaccine |
| Posted by: anon1 2014-10-17 06:41 |
| #1 Nice! Thanks TW. |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2014-10-17 05:49 |