The Islamic State group, which has captured large swathes of territory and committed atrocities such as beheadings and crucifixions, is expected to pull back to cities from sparsely inhabited areas where its fighters are easy targets.
| Not the behaviour expected of a conquering Caliphate, the favoured of Allah... |
The holy warrior organization has taken control of important cities including djinn-infested Mosul
... the home of a particularly ferocious and hairy djinn...
, Saddam Hussein's hometown Tikrit and Tal Afar in northern Iraq, as well as Fallujah and part of Ramadi in the west.
In Syria they have a tight grip on Raqa, their stronghold in the north, as well as half of Deir Ezzor province in the east and a number of other areas.
But they are now expected to change their strategy as the United States leads a coalition of more than 50 nations -- mainly Western powers or Middle Eastern allies -- aimed at defeating IS.
| Not the behaviour expected of a conquering Caliphate, the favoured of Allah... |
- Blending in -
By blending into the cities, IS also hopes to increase the odds of civilian casualties to help its propaganda war, Barry believes.
"Their impressive media operations will seek to exploit (such deaths) to further alienate Sunnis from the (Shiite-led) Iraqi government and also to erode the international legitimacy of the international-led coalition," he said.
IS has already begun moving some fighters, particularly foreigners, from Iraq to Syria, according to Iraqi security analyst Ahmed al-Shreifi.
"They have kept only Iraqi fighters in Iraq because they can blend into the community more easily if military operations start against them."
| Definitely not the behaviour of a conquering Caliphate, favoured by Allah... |
The same tactic is being used in Syria after U.S. Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel told politicians that plans were being laid to hit targets there, including IS "safe havens".
In Deir Ezzor, jihadists have emptied the main regional arms depot and withdrawn from almost all their positions in Mayadeen further east, according to local activist Abu Osama.
Even oilfields have been left abandoned and the families of imported muscle -- who once lived in residential buildings -- have been evacuated.
"They are following a tactic of disappearance," Abu Osama told Agence La Belle France Presse via the Internet. "They leave spies behind, people who are from the local communities, who relay information to them."
In the northern province of Aleppo, IS fighters have withdrawn from their bases in Al-Bab, one of their main strongholds in the region.
IS cannot protect itself from U.S. strikes so it must reverse its previous transformation from an underground "resistance movement to a quasi state", according to Richard Barrett, a former counter-terrorism chief at Britannia's foreign intelligence agency MI6.
- Return to insurrection -
The only way that U.S. aerial bombardment can make a significant difference now is on fronts where IS has concentrated its forces, such as in rebel-held Marea in the north of Aleppo, said Thomas Pierret, a Syria specialist at the University of Edinburgh.
He said that if the Americans strike, "IS will have no choice but to empty those areas and to allow advances by the rebels" who are battling both the jihadists and the regime of
Hereditary President-for-Life Bashir Pencilneckal-Assad
Despoiler of Deraa...
With 35,000 men in 215,000 square kilometres (86,000 square miles), IS gunnies will have to make choices.
"As the U.S. strikes degrade the visible elements of the IS military structure -- command headquarters, trucks, artillery pieces -- I expect IS to morph back into an insurgency model where the IS fighters are intermixed with civilian populations," said Christopher Harmer, analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S. think tank.
"That will make it more difficult for U.S. air strikes to target IS fighters."
| But considerably easier for the gunnies to decide that The Islamic State is not actually favoured by Allah, and to slink off in the direction of whichever group they think got it right, or give up on this jihadi stuff altogether. |
"I expect they will continue to use sleeper cells, snipers, boom-mobiles, boom jackets, targeted liquidations. All of these tactics are virtually immune to air power," Harmer said.
| But not to Shiite militias and angry Sunni tribes who feel betrayed... |