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| -Signs, Portents, and the Weather- | ||
| Nigerian Tourist Unlikely To Have Ebola, Doctors Say | ||
| 2014-09-07 | ||
Prof. Jonathan Halevi, the director of the Shaare Zedek Medical Center where the woman is being examined, told Haaretz that chances of the 28-year-old carrying the virus were extremely slim. Initial blood tests had shown the infection to be bacterial and not viral, he said, but were sent for a second test in order to make sure. Final results were expected later in the day.
The woman, a tourist who arrived in Israel on Wednesday, admitted herself to the hospital suffering from high fever. The Ebola epidemic, which emerged in Guinea at the start of the year before spreading to Liberia, Sierra Leone and Nigeria, is the worst outbreak since the hemorrhagic fever was first identified in 1976. More than 3,000 people appear to have been infected, and 1,552 have died, according to the latest World Health Organization figures. Last month, the Foreign Ministry published a warning urging Israelis against travel to Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone. | ||
| Posted by:trailing wife |
| #3 I made a similar calculation and came up with a doubling every 30 days approx. With an incubation period of 20 days and another 10 days to death or resolution that means onward infection rate is around 2. Similar to flu epidemics. And even with vaccines, how successful have we have been in stopping spread of the flu? I'm waiting to see if we get a significant outbreak outside tropical Africa. Libya? Egypt? |
| Posted by: phil_b 2014-09-07 09:27 |
| #2 i wish i could just reprint the table so it was neat. But the mathematicians among you will note it is a roughly 150% increase in infections every 2 weeks project that out and you get an infection rate of 1 million a month in less than a year |
| Posted by: anon1 2014-09-07 09:08 |
| #1 I have continued to add up the WHO figures The WHO with a $4.27 billion budget used to upload new infection and new death figures in bulletins every 2-4 days. The last figures were from August 20. they haven't done one of those updates for 3 weeks now So i subtracted the old total from the new total to keep my count going. It is only to August 27. Great standardisation of reporting from WHO. Just what you'd expect from a well-funded global organisation of expert scientists... dates...........new infected.....new dead August 15-27.......898............363 (senegal infected) August 1-15........663............331 (DRC infected) July 15-31.........423............146 (Nigeria infected) July 1-15..........285............139 June 15-30..........81.............41 June 1-15...........84.............28 May 15-31..........133.............44 May 1 – 15..........12..............9 |
| Posted by: anon1 2014-09-07 09:06 |