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| Africa North |
| Oil Sending Libya Down Somalia's Route To Ruin |
| 2014-07-29 |
| The signs are there that Libya is fast following Somalia’s route to ruin as the country plunges into a conflict so complex it could take decades to fix. Social cohesion is fragmenting on a geographic, tribal and religious basis in the midst of a concurrent three dimensional battle - all underpinned by the power and influence of oil which lubricates the funnel down which a previously stable, moderate, conservative society now spirals. The enormous value of Libya’s oil lies at the heart of everything that has happened since the revolution. The natural tendencies towards unity, entrepreneurship and hard work, so evident in neighbouring Tunisia, evaporated instantly, as Libyans anticipated great wealth without having to lift a finger. Battle number one, therefore, has been the battle for political control. The Muslim Brotherhood lost no time in asserting itself and undermining a bedrock of moderate, conservative politics. This led to infighting and the paralysis of government. Battle number two has been regional conflict and the creeping tit-for-tat power struggles between militias, all sustained by government in the vain hope of controlling them. City vs city; East vs West vs South. Within this battle is the conflict surrounding the nation’s natural assets, as powerful figures seized their opportunity to take control of state utilities as a means to dictate terms to the government and further their own agendas. The final battle is the battle for the soul of Libya: Moderates vs extremists. In three months, security in Benghazi went from professional, overt and reassuring to largely invisible soldiers in balaclavas to prevent identification by local Ansar Sharia extremists. By March, Ansar Sharia were engaged in a wave of bombings and killings that brought General Hiftar and Operation Dignity into being. Somalia concerned few until piracy started holding global trade to ransom. Libya’s importance is more immediately concerning. Libya is Europe’s neighbour and the gateway in and out of Africa through which people, weapons, drugs and other illicit trade are beginning to pass as untroubled passage can easily be purchased through the anarchy. It is also the lynchpin in the ever-widening global onslaught of al Qaeda franchises across the Middle East and North Africa. But for Egypt and Libya’s resilience, Osama Bin Laden’s disciples will walk freely from Lahore to Bamako, and from Mombasa to Mosul. In Somalia, an unwavering security presence provided by the African Union, and backed by the international community, established the security scaffolding within which the UN, the EU, UK, Turkey and others led the political roadmap and began rebuilding the political machine and state institutions. Libya, therefore, needs its oil production taken into trust with all proceeds funnelled directly into governance. It needs a comprehensive security operation provided by African nations with the Libyan and continental interest at heart. And it needs single-minded, volunteer nations to lead an inclusive state-building and governance operation. Libya has not yet gone past the point of no return, but it soon will if we do not act now - and act decisively. Former Army Officer and Whitehall communications officer, the author, Richard Bailey, is a Strategic Communications Consultant who has been working as Communications Advisor to the African Union Mission in Somalia and latterly the Office of the President in Somalia between 2009 and 2013 and to the Government in Libya since November 2013. |
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #3 The dear departed Christopher Hitchens said it best shortly before his death when he described North Africa and the Middle East as "Tribes with Flags" I know that most Libyans I knew just wanted to get on with it and live their lives. The Moslem Brotherhood undermined the GNC while we stood by making nuisance gestures of good will and little else. Everyone from the barrista at the coffee shop I used to the Nigerian houseboy at my home knew the fate of Libya depended upon getting control of the militias and disbanding them. The GNC did neither and you had these strange Kabuki dances with a traffic accident where the Army, the local police and a group of militiamen would arrive and argue over jurisdiction while bystanders would call the ambulance and treat the injured. Hiftar may be the last great hope of Libya to avoid the Somalia fate. I just know that a Libyan friend of mine, who was a patriot and a hero during the revolution recently moved his wife and children to the US. He told me three months ago that Libya was coming apart. |
| Posted by: Bill Clinton 2014-07-29 11:45 |
| #2 You create artificial countries out of tribes, they bound to break down eventually. A really brutal dictator can slow down the process, but nothing can stop it. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2014-07-29 03:57 |
| #1 |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2014-07-29 02:06 |