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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Moscow Rules |
| 2014-05-05 |
| h/t Gates of Vienna ...There is one scenario, however, that could prompt Russian military intervention in Eastern Ukraine. This might happen if NATO forces move toward Western Ukraine, or even to Ukraine's border with Poland, as the usual suspects in Washington have demanded. The consensus among my interlocutors in Moscow was that this is not what Putin wants, and that the West will refrain from that kind of escalation because the prudence of "Old Europe" will prevail over the adventurism of former Soviet satellites. ...None of that will change the status of the Crimea as a republic in the Russian federation. Even among Moscow's Western-leaning liberals there is a grudging acceptance that a forceful response should have been anticipated. It is noteworthy that Mikhail Gorbachev expressed his support for Putin in this crisis, no doubt remembering his own credulity when James Baker assured him that "there would be no extension of NATO's jurisdiction one inch to the east." As Stephen F. Cohen noted in an excellent essay in The Nation on April 1, beginning with the Clinton administration, and supported by every subsequent Republican and Democratic president and Congress, the U.S.-led West has unrelentingly moved its military, political, and economic power ever closer to post-Soviet Russia: ...As was obvious from Putin's speech in the Kremlin on March 18, the contours of a new Russian security doctrine are in place. Its pillars are "Russia's historical heritage"--i.e., an active interest in the affairs of former Soviet republics--and an explicit rejection of the Western demand for the selective application of international legal norms. Since you have set your own double standards in Kosovo, Iraq, Libya, he was effectively saying, I'll set mine. Putin's red line is NATO. My friend Oleg Bondarenko is certain that he will risk a major crisis rather than accept any further NATO expansion (or Western military bases) in the former Soviet republics: Touchy fellows these Russkies---don't they understand they lost? The commentariat in Washington is still unaware of the new mood in Moscow. IMO, "Washington is unaware" would've sufficed NATO is now a burden. The Cold War is over. And we have no great interests in the territorial disputes of Europe. Or in Entangling Alliances. We have common interests with Russia. They should be pursued. I'd rather have a Russian agreement than an alliance with Bosnia. -- Jerry Pournelle |
| Posted by:g(r)omgoru |
| #2 The problem is NOT that they lost, but thy will not see they lost, they keep fighting the old war, that's already lost, like a sailor desperately trying to refloat the Titanic. |
| Posted by: Redneck Jim 2014-05-05 21:59 |
| #1 Touchy fellows these Russkies---don't they understand they lost? I'd like to see Champ tell Putin, "You lost - get over it."...but somehow, I think Champ knows better. Mike |
| Posted by: Mike Kozlowski 2014-05-05 21:40 |